- Keene, NH
This is a common aspect of propaganda driven legislation and/or false assumptions made by people who don't understand statistics.From the article:
the number of collisions involving bicycles or e-bicycles has "almost tripled since 2020,"... OMG, OMG! We need to declare an emergency!!!
Collisions tripled, ok... what's the pool size? Were there as many e-bikes on the road in 2020 as there are now? Sure, the NUMBER of collisions has gone up, but has the percentage?
It's a logic fallacy I come across a lot as a web developer that other dev's use as an excuse to be ignorant lazy little turds.
A great example of this is how back in 2003 Internet Explorer (mostly IE6) was what 95% of all visitors to websites were using. By 2008 that number had dropped to just 45% as Firefox cut into their numbers. Firefox fanboys used those numbers to wildly claim that IE was dying and that Firefox was responsible for that.
A bald faced LIE! They were sounding the trumpet five years too soon. Chrome is what eventually killed both.
Why was it a lie? Because the pool size changed. In 2003 at IE's peak percentage there were roughly 608 million Internet users. In 2008 there were ~1.5 billion.
Now I'm no mathemagician, but 95% of 608 million is 577 million. 45% of 1.5 billion 675 million. So in spite of "losing" 50% market share, they gained 98 million users? It wasn't "dying", it was just failing to expand as quickly into new markets. This is the common lie of "market share" in growing markets.
Thus the claims of IE's death were premature, and based on a card stacked lie. Using a single data point whilst omitting anything that contradicted the preconceived conclusion.
Without telling us how many e-bikes were on the road for each of those years, the number of collisions leads to false conclusions.
It's like the disease I have as a result of an overactive ventromedial pre-frontal cortex: non-24 sleep wake disorder. Prior to about 20 years ago there were no known cases, ten years ago the number of cases shot up to 200 times prior, and today there are hundreds of thousands of people worldwide with the diagnosis. What's going on? Why are so many people suddenly getting this?!?
Wrong question based on incorrect conclusions rooted in incomplete data. The first doctor to recognize the condition even exists did so 20 years ago, and it didn't even have a medical diagnostic code or wide-spread education about it until a decade ago.
The number of people with the condition hasn't gone up. The ability for doctors to recognize and diagnose it has. And STILL you get the "moral panic" level of stupid because people only talk about how many diagnosis there are, omitting that prior to 20 years ago they didn't even know what it was.
And make no mistake, these types of knee-jerk reactions to numbers are a form of moral panic. NO different than the people losing their minds over tik-tok "poisoning the minds of the youth" the same way such "moral guardians" reacted to metal, rap, video games, D&D, rock and roll, jazz, and anything else that was "new" and "children like it". Or screaming about China spying on our kids through it. Because Chinese military intelligence gains security information via pre-teen girls acting like trashy bimbos and the 40-something male virgins spanking their crank to it.
I guess it's a way to distract from the child abuse that is religious grooming. Which is why those same "defenders of the innocent" seem to have no problem with priests diddling little kids or Churches covering it up. But won't we please think of the children. When Jesus said "let the little children come unto me" that's NOT what he was talking about!
Anyhow, beware of statistical fallacies. They are a perfect example of how the best place to hide a lie is between two truths. It is entirely possible to lie using facts, that's what card-stacking is. Present the handful of data that supports your view, and omit anything and everything that shows how full of manure the conclusion is.