CDC 2019 to 2020 US flu season estimates

[Deleted member 4210]

Preliminary In-Season 2021-2022 Flu Burden Estimates

CDC's weekly cumulative in-season estimates of flu cases, medical visits, hospitalizations and deaths in the United States.

www.cdc.gov

39 million to 56 million illnesses.
24k to 62k Deaths

Oct 1 to April 4.

410,000 to 740,000 hospitalizations

Too little data on Covid 19 to make any quantitative comparisons, other than the numbers of cases of Covid 19 are factors lower. Not knowing true number of Covid cases, which easily could be in the 10's of millions and we dont know it (bc we are not testing enough for it, and usually only testing those with really severe symptoms, and many symptoms are similar to flu or colds), does make you wonder why the country is still under shutdown. Flu has a vaccine, so it could have many more deaths. If the fatality counts are now tapering off for Covid 19, then it would appear we wont hit 60,000 deaths before year end, many more months than the months shown above for the typical flu season. And its becoming evident, that Covid 19 fatality counts (when they actually confirm a death victim did actually have Covid, and its been widely reported by many doctors, many deaths are being labeled as Covid 19, without any Covid-19 test being conducted to actually confirm) are near 97% having underlying co-morbidities. Diabetes, heart disease, lung cancer, etc. Those seem to be the people who need to be protected (they know who they are, and they can self quarantine or take additional necessary measures), while the rest of everyone else, could be backing working and living their lives, wearing masks as a precaution if necessary and still some basic measures of social distancing, very strong hand washing, sanitizer everywhere it's needed, and businesses doing extra sanitation or more so than pre Covid-19. And just dealing with it, as part of life, just like we do the flu. ( My sister had it, and she said it was not worse than any flu she's had.) Again, many people than anyone likely suspects probably had Covid-19 this season, and did not even know it. Diarrhea is one big and very common symptom, and not just respiratory issues or fever. OF course we wont know a lot of this, as many doctors are simply rejecting people getting any tests. Too few tests to dispense still ? It would not surprise me one bit, if months from now, they came out and said we've had more than 30 or 40 million cases of Covid 19 already, and that it actually started spreading here before January. Anti-body testing would be the most key measure to undertake, to eliminate all the uncertainty, and reduce the level of 'panic' to more of a mild 'buzz'. Make it voluntary and once you have a sampling thats statistically significant enough, from around the country, you could extrapolate with pretty good accuracy how many people already have had Covid 19.

 

[Berry78]

The Diamond Princess cruise ship was an excellent population sample from which to extrapolate data.

Since every passenger was tested, asymptomatic cases were included.

According to the worldometer website, there were 712 cases, of which 12 have died so far, (and there are still 7 in serious or critical condition. At this point it is probably safe to assume most of those 7 won't make it.)

But, assuming every one of those people pull through, the mortality rate stands at 1.69 percent. Keep in mind that includes all the asymptomatic cases.

If (as in the flu example above) 39m people became infected with Covid-19, then there would be around 659,100 deaths (597,100 more than flu).

For every one person that might die of flu you have at least 10 people that would die of Covid-19.

In an average hospital that means you might have 4 people with life threatening flu-pneumonia. Sounds reasonable. Now imagine 40 'Rona patients come through the doors. I've worked in hospitals. They don't keep 40 empty beds around "just in case".

The quarantine is working really well to keep the infection rate down. The only problem is it is unsustainable.

A single case has has turned into millions in a matter of about 4.5 months. And that is with Herculean efforts across the globe.

What I find funny is how "flatten the curve" somehow went from "everyone will get infected, just slower" to "stop the spread" which means they are trying to prevent anyone from getting it.

Which message do we listen to?

"Stop the spread" means being nailed into our homes. Flattening the curve means we'll still lose millions of lives, we'll just do it slower. (Unless they can find an effective treatment before everyone has caught it).

Millions? Yes. If 50 percent of the USA caught it, then there would be almost 2.8 million deaths in just the one country. That is assuming the hospitals were able to care for every patient (the way they could care for every Diamond Princess patient before the health system was burdened).

I don't have a good, workable solution that would minimize deaths AND revive the economy. The best case scenario is they find a simple, plentiful, cheap medication that stops this thing in its tracks. If it were that easy, I'm pretty sure it would have been found by now, what with the head start SARS gave. (Covid-19 is VERY similar to SARS.)

If we were nailed into our houses to stop the spread, it would still take about 6 weeks to burn out.

Dad brings virus into house on morning of lockdown. Gets sick on day 7, giving it to the rest of the family. They get sick on day 14, and then might take 4 weeks to fully recover. Bam. 6 weeks.

At this point this would be our best option. Give everyone a week or two to prepare then lock in for 6 weeks.

If this were ebola infecting millions (50-90 percent death rate), we wouldn't hesitate to impose these draconian measures.

But our economy could withstand a 6 week 100 percent shutdown much better than 18 months of fiddling around.

 

[Solom01]

Cruise ships are hardly random samples of the population. What was the average age of the passengers - I have a feeling that if it's like any normal cruise there was a high percentage of geriatrics and when people get to a certain age just about anything will kill them; the flu, a cold, a fall - anything. If the passengers were younger there is little doubt that the death rate would be a lot lower.

 

[Berry78]

It's true that the ship had a larger number of older passengers. Considering 34 percent of US citizens are over 50, the numbers are still sobering.

At least the plan for reopening the economy falls into line with the "flatten the curve" concept. One less mystery...

 

[LaszloB]

Cruise ships are hardly random samples of the population. What was the average age of the passengers - I have a feeling that if it's like any normal cruise there was a high percentage of geriatrics and when people get to a certain age just about anything will kill them; the flu, a cold, a fall - anything. If the passengers were younger there is little doubt that the death rate would be a lot lower.

Not true, it really depend on the cruise line and cruise length. My wife and I are 57 and have taken 15 cruises. 7 day east coast trips have everyone from hood rats to millionaires and ages from 1 to 95, black, white, asian, rich and poor. Cruises 10, 11, 14 and longer have mostly white 50,60, 70, 80 year olds

 

[john peck]

US population 328 million. C-19 deaths around 35K, percentage dead 1/100th of 1 percent. Us death toll for all causes .89 of 1%.
Does this really warrant what we're going thru? I mean yes, perhaps in large urban areas, but for the rest of us? Do we really need
to shutdown everything until late June or early July as Fauci has said. I'm not really that big a coward. Fascists now have complete
control of the media. This could be the beginning of the NK in the USA. We are totally being beaten down & brainwashed by this.

 

[Mr. Coffee]

US population 328 million. C-19 deaths around 35K, percentage dead 1/100th of 1 percent. Us death toll for all causes .89 of 1%.
Does this really warrant what we're going thru? I mean yes, perhaps in large urban areas, but for the rest of us? Do we really need
to shutdown everything until late June or early July as Fauci has said. I'm not really that big a coward. Fascists now have complete
control of the media. This could be the beginning of the NK in the USA. We are totally being beaten down & brainwashed by this.

Um, COVID-19 is now the number one cause of death in the United States. And you are comparing deaths that have occurred in a very few weeks to annual death figures. This fine graph (source: https://www.thenewatlantis.com/publications/not-like-the-flu-not-like-car-crashes-not-like) gives you a better idea of the situation:

Please keep in mind that Heart disease, cancer, and car crashes aren't generally communicable. This virus is. We are in a serious situation and are quite literally fighting for our lives.

One thing we are learning is that there is very little "surge capacity" in our health care system and also in a lot of our supply chains (think of toilet paper and hand sanitizer -- I haven't seen any hand sanitizer in a store for over a month). In that situation small disruptions quickly amplify into very large disruptions.

 

[john peck]

& when we are finally allowed to come out of hiding it will still be there. There is no guarantee that it won't surge right
back again. Nature will always find a way to cull the herd. This has created a 1000 times more victims than the
disease itself & thrown our way of life into chaos.

 

[Mr. Coffee]

& when we are finally allowed to come out of hiding it will still be there. There is no guarantee that it won't surge right
back again. Nature will always find a way to cull the herd.

You're right, and if we don't do anything differently this time the virus inevitably surge right back. But there are four things I think we can do differently this time:

1. Make sure we have adequate large-scale testing capacity. Right now the USA can test about 100k patients per day. If we can ramp that up to 1M or 2M patients we will be much more able to stay on top of this.
2. Train up a large army of people to do contact tracing.
3. Build up adequate supplies of PPE and other tools to make sure our hospitals can handle another surge, if it comes to that.
4. There are multiple drugs in clinical trials right now. Nearly all of those drugs are already approved, so we would know what the side effects and contraindications would be. That would reasonably make the cycle time for finding an effective treatment much faster than concocting a new drug from scratch. Any treatment, even one that was 50 percent effective, would be a game-changer at this point.

I know there is no guarantee on any of those things, but I think our best chance to get through this more or less intact is going to stay in lockdown until the number of new cases are very small and most (preferably all) of the above are in place.

We had adequate warning to do the first three things last time around. Hopefully we collectively are smart enough to learn from our mistakes and failures and do better when we do finally start to reopen.

 

[Dewey]

Do we really need to shutdown everything until late June or early July as Fauci has said.

I trust anything Dr Fauci has to say on the Coronavirus pandemic. Thanks to his tireless efforts cajoling reluctant politicians of all stripes over 3 decades to provide federal funding for AIDS/HIV research a diagnosis is no longer a death sentence. The evidence-based message from the public health profession he is one visible public face of is we have to cooperate and work together to prevent this thing overpowering our hospital capacity to try to save lives while scientists work towards effective treatments, and while we wait for tests and contact tracing infrastructure and PPE production to be ramped up and fairly distributed.

 

[john peck]

Hey, like I said, I'm about the most naturally social distanced person I know, but in spite of this people
here have begun living again. Most are keeping their distance, but on today's ride traffic on hwy 20
was only about 20% less than normal. People were picnicking in the park, walking dogs, & riding bikes.
They were mowing lawns, digging up dandelions, working on cars, & the usual Saturday stuff. Down at
a small beach a few blocks from my home there were a dozen cars parked.
I'm not asking to abandon caution,but I can't stop people from trying to have a normal existence.
At 71, I'm supposed to be fearful since I'm among those most likely to die. Somehow I'm not.
One of the best things about today's ride was seeing children playing as if nothing was going on.

 

[john peck]

"Those who would trade a bit of freedom for a bit of security will have neither & lose both."
Benjamin Franklin

 

[john peck]

Current percent of the total US population now dead of CV-19 is a bit less than 1/1000th of 1%
Avg annual US deaths all causes, .89 0f 1%. Thus far you are more than 800 times
more likely to die of something else.

 

[Deleted member 4210]

From Stanford Study on Covid 19:

42 people without one of the defined underlying conditions died. (i.e. defined underlying conditions: Diabetes, Heart Disease, Lung Cancer, COPD, etc)

5,891 with one or more underlying causes did.

That's 0.71% of those with confirmed cases, which means you're symptomatic enough to get tested.

Now add at least half that for the asymptomatics and maybe more -- in fact the evidence is that we're already at or near herd immunity levels based on multiple seropositive surveys -- not just the one run by Stanford but in many other locations as well! In addition we know only 12%, approximately, of those symptomatic enough to get tested require hospitalization in the first place.


If the Stanford study holds then that's overstating the risk by fifty times or more which means you're more-likely to die from any other cause than Covid-19 at any age provided you are not on that "it may get you" list of conditions.


For reference this is pretty comparable to your all-cause mortality rate at any age beyond 24 without taking the Stanford (and two other smaller state studies ) into account and yet the risk of dying of this bug has been used to scare the bejeezus out of the entire population. (and rendered more than 20 million people unemployed)

What are the odds that all three of those studies, in three diverse population groups in three different places in the United States are all wrong?

Nearly zero, and yet if they're correct then the risk isn't even 0.36% -- it's 1/50th of that or less which means the actual risk for a healthy person is roughly 0.0072%!

In other words for something that is roughly as likely, or less-so, than the ordinary risk you take going to get the mail from your mailbox you have been, and continue to willing to comply with some governor, or mayor, while allowing them to destroy the American economy. Their ability to claim "mistake" has irrevocably evaporated with these facts.

Study found here: https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/imm/covid-19-daily-data-summary-deaths-04172020-1.pdf

So How long is everyone willing to tolerate these continued lockdowns, especially if they don't have any of the serious underlying conditions ? If everyone recalls, The President wanted to open the economy back on April 10th.

 

[john peck]

If you are in a city or fearful for any reason, by all means lock yourself down.
That's not what happened here yesterday. Traffic was back to normal on Hwy 101
There were lots of RVs and several large groups of motorcycles. Also plenty
of people on the Olympic Discovery Trail**. Apparently a signifigant number
of people have chosen to get on with their lives.

**Runs parallel to 101, traffic was noted from trail

 

[6zfshdb]

From what I've seen, you can spin these numbers almost any way you want. Published studies are all over the map with reported results. I'm just as anxious as the next guy to see life return to "normal", what ever that will be in the aftermath. Most of the proposed plans involve lifting the lockdown in stages in selected areas and monitoring the effect. This however is dependent on the availability of effective testing methods. This seems to make the most sense.

I understand the frustration associated with the lockdown but to lift it altogether would be a grave mistake. What I don't understand is the thought process of those protesters who support this idea. Yes, young & healthy people would suffer little or no effects from this virus and would recover quickly. Just how many older & infirm people would die is a big unknown. The economy can be fixed, dead people can't.

What mortality factor is acceptable to these protesters? How many of their family members are they willing to sacrifice?

 

[john peck]

I am going to die, that's a given, & given my age, probably sooner than most. Life in a mine field of hazards,
Be it C-19, a drunk driver, or just a slip in the bath tub, something will eventually take you out. It's your choice;
if you choose to sequester from life, fine. I you choose to go on living the best you can, fine. If you are not comfortable
with that, like so many, you can let others make your choices for you, fine. I've survived grave illnesses & life
threatening injuries. Others will too. You may not be able to choose how you die, but you can still choose how you
want to live.

 

[BlackHand]

I am going to die, that's a given, & given my age, probably sooner than most. Life in a mine field of hazards,
Be it C-19, a drunk driver, or just a slip in the bath tub, something will eventually take you out. It's your choice;.....

In any case, be careful on your next ride on the Olympic Discovery Trail: I've heard the mountain goats have been ignoring the stay at home order and congregating around trailheads and roads

 

[Deleted member 4210]

Who Noted Birx Today In Presser?
Who caught it?

One of the members of the press asked the obvious: Given that we now have studies showing prevalence of Covid-19 fifty times the reported case rate this means the fatality rate is much lower than reported, and in fact similar to the seasonal flu, isn't it?


Anyone notice that she didn't answer the question, and instead went on a rant about selectivity of the antibody tests?

She was trapped and she knew it which is why she didn't answer the question; yes the selectivity is an issue, but all that does is produce a wider confidence band than you'd like -- it doesn't invalidate the results.

-- the press is onto it now, and eventually the people will be on to it too: THE LOCKDOWNS HAVE BEEN WORTHLESS.

 

[Deleted member 4210]

Unfortunately this gives new meaning to the phrase 'silent but deadly'...

Can the coronavirus be spread through farts?

“No bare-bottom farting,” said one doctor.

nypost.com