Battery supply problems

[Bruce Arnold]

There's been some discussion here about whether or not batteries are a major bottleneck, making it difficult for Juiced Bikes to get their products out the door, as @Tora Harris has said. There are some who scoff at this notion. I haven't chimed in on that one, because I just don't know enough.

I saw a video on YouTube just now that gave me some insight. The channel is called "Fully Charged Show." Not associated with the ebike shop in London named Fully Charged, although they have made a couple of videos with the shop's owner (as has Court.) They cover sustainable energy in general and electric vehicles in particular.

Their most recent video was a summary of news about various EVs, such as a ferry in Norway and a new fully-electric Winnebago RV. Two parts caught my attention, as relevant to our discussion.

First, Hyundai has had to slow production of the Ioniq because they can't get batteries fast enough. Second, VW has committed $48 billion to purchasing batteries for a major roll-out of EVs that they don't plan to start building for another year.

This suggests that Tora's remarks about batteries are not just cheap excuses, as some have claimed. Ebikes in general are a tiny share of the worldwide hunger for batteries. If those gigantic manufacturers are in this situation - if Hyundai can't build cars fast enough and VW finds it necessary to plan that far ahead - how can ebike builders not have similar problems?

There's a video I'd like to see @Court do. Ebike journalism on the battery supply issue. Are Trek, Specialized, etc. having similar setbacks? What does the future look like? Are battery suppliers ramping up production?

 

[Asher]

Thanks for the post. I meant to put up here a thread about who exactly manufactures Juiced - a company called Zhejiang Luyuan.

One difference between ebikes and cars - ebikes can probably swallow more easily an increase in price, aka surge pricing in the face of stockouts. A car, not so much - because you've just increased the sticker price $5-10k, not $1-200. Cars have around 50-100x as much battery.

As an aside, considering that China is rapidly becoming more environmentally conscious than the US, I'd love to see them have a policy that prioritizes bike and bus batteries over car batteries. Per kilowatt, bike (esp) and bus batteries service far more people than car batteries do. China is already far more dominant in global bike than car manufacture.

 

[Bruce Arnold]

As an aside, considering that China is rapidly becoming more environmentally conscious than the US, I'd love to see them have a policy that prioritizes bike and bus batteries over car batteries. Per kilowatt, bike (esp) and bus batteries service far more people than car batteries do. China is already far more dominant in global bike than car manufacture.

The guys in that video I mentioned said the same thing. Why continue the model of individual ownership of cars? It's a very interesting video that covered a lot of ground; highly recommended.

 

[NeilCruz]

Regarding e-bike batteries - there is probably also the issue battery producers moving to the new 2170 format. If all the car companies push the battery manufacturing to 2170 there will be a near term drop in price of 18650's (as demand drops) but then the supply will suddenly shrink as more factories switch to 2170.

If you took the current 19.2a battery config of 13s X 6 and replaced it with a typical Samsung/Panasonic 2170 cell - what would the watt hours be..

And we should factor in the scrambler - which seems to use the 52V 14S configuration even on the smaller capacity batteries - what would those be like with a 2170 sized battery.

 

[Chris Hammond]

Regarding e-bike batteries - there is probably also the issue battery producers moving to the new 2170 format. If all the car companies push the battery manufacturing to 2170 there will be a near term drop in price of 18650's (as demand drops) but then the supply will suddenly shrink as more factories switch to 2170.

If you took the current 19.2a battery config of 13s X 6 and replaced it with a typical Samsung/Panasonic 2170 cell - what would the watt hours be..

And we should factor in the scrambler - which seems to use the 52V 14S configuration even on the smaller capacity batteries - what would those be like with a 2170 sized battery.

I am guessing the wide format case would have to be revamped to fit the larger cells.
However from a capacity standpoint it'd be great, IIRC the 2170 cells are ~13% larger in volume, but something like 45% more energy capacity.

 

[Bruce Arnold]

I am guessing the wide format case would have to be revamped to fit the larger cells.
However from a capacity standpoint it'd be great, IIRC the 2170 cells are ~13% larger in volume, but something like 45% more energy capacity.

That was my thought also. You couldn't get 2170 cells in the current battery case. No problem re-designing the case I don't think -- 5 mm wider, no big deal as far as width goes. Length would have to stay the same to allow them to seat properly in current frames. So, what about depth? The current batteries already take up a lot of space beneath the down tube. You'd probably lose the water bottle attachment on the seat tube. Small loss, IMO, there are other options for carrying water.

 

[NeilCruz]

But you wouldn't need as many batteries to get the same watt-hours would you?

So if you used 2170 cells, I think a 14s X 5 with 2170 would provide more capacity than 14s X 6 with 18650.

Maybe align the cells vertically vs horizontally you could get a 14S x 5 into the 21ah case.

I'm still trying to figure out what the a 14S single pack of 2170 would be Volt/Ah wise

 

[Chris Hammond]

You'd probably lose the water bottle attachment on the seat tube. Small loss, IMO, there are other options for carrying water.

These are really only useful for carrying things like a frame pump anyway. Juiced kinda missed the mark with adding these to the frame, with the base battery a few people can fit a small bottle in, the large batteries already make it impossible.
I would honestly rather see Juiced design a bigger battery pack that used up the triangle space. I could definitely see myself upgrading to a bigger pack, even though I already have the biggest one available. Perhaps if I was willing to charge to 100% instead of 80%

 

[NeilCruz]

I won't know until tomorrow but if they put the bottle bosses on the battery would that give enough room for a 16oz?

I was looking at the fidlock water (Link Removed - No Longer Exists) but unfortunately you have to use their bottle - too bad they don't have an option for a bottle harness for a "bring your own bottle".