Are Americans savvy enough to discern the difference between high-tech and low-tech electric bikes?

[calvin]

Hi Calvin - Well I hope you are right that we are on the cusp. I've been in the bicycle industry for over 40 years and e-bikes for the last 12. So I'm more then ready!
IMHO, its really all about the ride feel and I do think bike dealers are more sensitive to this then most consumers at this point. A simple "throttle-only" e-bike that has no technology except decent quality components all plugged together, does not inspire someone to ride an e-bike like a bicycle. When you have a high-technology e-bike that uses CAN bus technology and multiple sensor technology (to detect pedal torque measurement, crank rotational speed and wheel speed - mapped through well written firmware), you can get a completely different experience. Its also much, much more simple to diagnose problems when/if they arise.
The thing that amazes me is that some respected e-bike companies are marketing the most simple, unsophisticated e-bikes at premium prices, as I mention in my opening question, and the market is not calling foul. Why do you think that is?

Because they can get away with it, and.... Yup, ebikes are going to be as cool and as hot as iPhones. If you want your company to be wildly successful, combine the highest quality with the best price mix that is acceptable to the consumer. Bang! Swat! Look at that! I hit the middle of the freakin target! In fact, you should start swinging a Velvet Covered (cause you want to be nice) Sledgehammer (VCS) at your naughty competition and hyper-educate the potential consumer. How to do dat? Get the word out, utilizing the most effective attention getting, exciting (knock their socks off!) advertising/marketing campaign in the history of mankind!.... Steve Jobs, you checked out way too early! We want you back! We love you and still remember your message. Do you guys remember what his message was? He said "make it great". Great was his favorite word.

 

[Admin]

Hey Larry, as the president of one of the leading international ebike companies it inspires confidence that you're asking these questions and I recognize that you're seeking to educate customers and thought leaders here as well. It's great that many of your products do indeed offer these benefits!

Currie, as part of the Accell Group, delivers a broad range of ebikes that can satisfy commuters, mountain bikers and those who may have limited budgets. Every day I read comments from individuals who are curious about ebikes and try to answer their questions and provide unbiased support. Today a 15 year old named Matty requested advice for which ebike he could use to run his paper route. This customer does not have much money but is excited about the technology and I was pleased to recommend that he consider the eZip Trailz Commuter or Skyline. Your company makes these products and you certainly recognize their lower level of technology but also understand the role that price plays.

Thoughts: US consumers are spaced further apart from their jobs and other destinations than Europeans or Asians. The USA has the highest percent of self reported obesity of any country in the world. Currently a newborn child in the US is wealthier than 25% of the existing population... because they have no debt. US cell phone technology lags behind much of Asia and Europe and is often more expensive. Microsoft dominated the early days of personal computing and remains a leading player today despite inferior technology.

Having a superior product is one part of the equation, awareness and marketing play an important role as well. Understanding your customer is paramount. It seems like America is adopting ebikes in part based on recreation and in part based on necessity which tends to dominate Asian and European markets. Americans are savvy but perhaps also stubborn and insecure. It doesn't surprise me that some demographics here tend to gravitate towards more simple throttle driven designs that resemble motorcycles and are sold using emotion based marketing.

I personally believe that a combination of rising energy prices and economic insecurity will make ebikes hip in America for younger generations. Providing a product that is functional and affordable may unlock the economies of scale, and an extensive accessory/maintenance network delivered by one or two major players will meet the demands of this market. The VW bug was not the fanciest car when it arrived but it was accessible and durable. People were excited about it because they could afford it and it was good enough. It became trendy as a result.

Some of the companies you're alluding to seem to be targeting an aging middle class with designs that resonate with simplicity and emotional fulfillment, perhaps even nostalgia. I do believe that superior product technology speaks volumes, especially in the transparency driven Internet age. I believe the demographic that will most appreciate the features you highlight is beginning to discover ebikes. It's not just about age here, it's about working class individuals might begin to rely on bikes instead of cars and I really do think they will appreciate the systems you've described. I'm excited to see the savvy people at your company reach these individuals by exciting them the way Stromer and Specialized have.

 

[Larry Pizzi]

Exactly. Do we really need 30 gears on a bicycle? I think the "more is better" idea comes into play when bike manufacturers compete with each other. I've read some reviews that question the Neo's "underpowered" 350 watt motor, but then read Dave's review saying he was surprised at how powerful his Carbon (with 350w motor) is. More isn't necessarily better.

Correct - More is not necessarily better, depending on what your talking about. Motor wattage is one of those things -- the higher the wattage, the more battery you consume riding -- that is why these center motor systems are really amazing -- This Gen1 Bosch System is 250w, but it generates 60+Nm of torque at the tire patch because you have a manual transmission (thats why the bikes gear system comes in handy -- and the wide range can be important -- depending on the terrain your riding). In contrast a typical 500W hub motor can reach ~40Nm, consuming more battery as it goes. While 30 speeds sounds intimidating, its really quite simple to use and you are really only looking for a relatively wide range so you can have a proper gear. Of course this is less a factor on hub motor bikes with throttle or throttle override.

 

[Larry Pizzi]

Hey Larry, as the president of one of the leading international ebike companies it inspires confidence that you're asking these questions and I recognize that you're seeking to educate customers and thought leaders here as well. It's great that many of your products do indeed offer these benefits!

Currie, as part of the Accell Group, delivers a broad range of ebikes that can satisfy commuters, mountain bikers and those who may have limited budgets. Every day I read comments from individuals who are curious about ebikes and try to answer their questions and provide unbiased support. Today a 15 year old named Matty requested advice for which ebike he could use to run his paper route. This customer does not have much money but is excited about the technology and I was pleased to recommend that he consider the eZip Trailz Commuter or Skyline. Your company makes these products and you certainly recognize their lower level of technology but also understand the role that price plays.

Thoughts: US consumers are spaced further apart from their jobs and other destinations than Europeans or Asians. The USA has the highest percent of self reported obesity of any country in the world. Currently a newborn child in the US is wealthier than 25% of the existing population... because they have no debt. US cell phone technology lags behind much of Asia and Europe and is often more expensive. Microsoft dominated the early days of personal computing and remains a leading player today despite inferior technology.

Having a superior product is one part of the equation, awareness and marketing play an important role as well. Understanding your customer is paramount. It seems like America is adopting ebikes in part based on recreation and in part based on necessity which tends to dominate Asian and European markets. Americans are savvy but perhaps also stubborn and insecure. It doesn't surprise me that some demographics here tend to gravitate towards more simple throttle driven designs that resemble motorcycles and are sold using emotion based marketing.

I personally believe that a combination of rising energy prices and economic insecurity will make ebikes hip in America for younger generations. Providing a product that is functional and affordable may unlock the economies of scale, and an extensive accessory/maintenance network delivered by one or two major players will meet the demands of this market. The VW bug was not the fanciest car when it arrived but it was accessible and durable. People were excited about it because they could afford it and it was good enough. It became trendy as a result.

Some of the companies you're alluding to seem to be targeting an aging middle class with designs that resonate with simplicity and emotional fulfillment, perhaps even nostalgia. I do believe that superior product technology speaks volumes, especially in the transparency driven Internet age. I believe the demographic that will most appreciate the features you highlight is beginning to discover ebikes. It's not just about age here, it's about working class individuals might begin to rely on bikes instead of cars and I really do think they will appreciate the systems you've described. I'm excited to see the savvy people at your company reach these individuals by exciting them the way Stromer and Specialized have.

All great points, Court. In reality, the variables are all just beginning to converge to create a market in the US. Today, distribution is at issue. The best marketing in the world won't help much if you don't have points of distribution where consumers can have a great demonstration experience. That is why we have invested heavily and continue to do so, in an attempt to build a high quality dealer network. Because we are attempting to create a new paradigm, this either takes time or explosive interest from consumers. The time has passed and the scale is ahead. Interesting times, for sure.

 

[George S.]

We have finally gotten to a place in time where the average selling price in North America are on par with electric bicycles sold on European market at an average of approximately $2500 retail. What is interesting however is that many bikes are very low-technology products, even some sold at these higher price points.

I'm referring to more expensive eBikes that are throttle only and/or use very simple on/off type pedal-assist, rotational sensors but lack more advanced, bus communications systems for diagnostics, rider control information and multiple input sensors that include pedal force, to enable the delivery of a fantastic and natural, pedal assist feel.

Just within the last few weeks a $3800, throttle only bike was introduced without questioning the functionality and there have been many $2,500 to $3,000 low-tech bikes that remain quite commonplace.

What do you think -- Is it just a matter of time until the market understands and demands leading edge technology, or will Americans continue to be satisfied with simple twist-and-go eBikes, even at premium price points?

Really? Basically here is my gripe. You are not building an industry because you are selling to the old folks, not the young. The young can afford a lower price point. I'm talking the kid who works at Walmart. There's not enough effort in the low end. A lot of what you say is marketing. What's the demo on your buyer. You think you can make ebikes part of a new transportation system without having millions of young people on ebikes? How you gonna get there?

I think pedal assist flows out of the European regs, that require it. A throttle is a throttle. A throttle is how you land an airplane. It's a powerful tool. Just learn how to use, maybe?

Why is a higher price point better than a lower price point? I'm a consumer. I like lower prices. You want to go mid-drive, high tech pedal assist, more and more a product in the luxury market.

George

 

[EddieJ]

All great points, Court. In reality, the variables are all just beginning to converge to create a market in the US. Today, distribution is at issue. The best marketing in the world won't help much if you don't have points of distribution where consumers can have a great demonstration experience. That is why we have invested heavily and continue to do so, in an attempt to build a high quality dealer network. Because we are attempting to create a new paradigm, this either takes time or explosive interest from consumers. The time has passed and the scale is ahead. Interesting times, for sure.

I have to say Larry that over here in the UK, Martin that runs this shop http://www.e-bikeshop.co.uk/ is a real credit to Haibike. His enthusiasm and belief in the product is higher than any other dealer that I have come across.
There are certainly a few dealers and just as importantly importers over here from other ebike manufacturers that could learn a thing or two from him.

Example...The UK BH experience is the complete opposite. I know of two dealers who have openly said that they are probably going to drop the product, and a third has indicated privately about doing the same. Expecting customers to wait in excess of four months just to get a spoke replaced is ridiculas, In my case waiting over four months to get the forks replaced, and even when they arrived, they were V brake is just as ridiculas. I just gave up and bought my own. In another case that I read about somewhere, a customer had to wait months whilst the dealer and importer argued over who was going to pay for a cracked console bracket. Arguing over a product with no value, whilst the customer is left without a bike, is no way to run a business. I could probably search and find many more tales of woe in relation to BH UK. but I've yet to see or hear one grumble about Haibike.

I can also think of a couple of lower end brands over here that also offer superb service and belief in their product. Their main market is for base model 'utility' bikes for want of another word, and given the amount of low end bikes that I'm starting to see about now, there is certainly a healthy market for them.

Sadly we also have a few who just import anything and everything from China, stick it on Ebay and probably just say tough when things go wrong, and they will.

 

[Larry Pizzi]

Really? Basically here is my gripe. You are not building an industry because you are selling to the old folks, not the young. The young can afford a lower price point. I'm talking the kid who works at Walmart. There's not enough effort in the low end. A lot of what you say is marketing. What's the demo on your buyer. You think you can make ebikes part of a new transportation system without having millions of young people on ebikes? How you gonna get there?

I think pedal assist flows out of the European regs, that require it. A throttle is a throttle. A throttle is how you land an airplane. It's a powerful tool. Just learn how to use, maybe?

Why is a higher price point better than a lower price point? I'm a consumer. I like lower prices. You want to go mid-drive, high tech pedal assist, more and more a product in the luxury market.

George

George - I think you may be missing my point. We have low-price, low-technology, throttle actuated products and yes, they sell quite well and people seem to like them, for the most part and we have sold 100's of thousands of them in the US.

But in the last few years, battery technology has dramatically improved, leading to the development of advanced drive systems that deliver a better user experience, and people are buying them. Last year our average retail price was approximately $2500, but we are still selling an opening priced bike for $599. The demographics are not only aging boomers, but also urban dwellers seeking a transportation alternative. This group is the most exciting because they are driving the market. And now, sport bikes that add electric assist so everyone can experience the joys of riding both on and off road.

My point is that IF people are buying higher priced electric bikes, shouldn't they get the advanced technology that delivers more then a simple throttle-only bike provides? Most of them have throttles too, but offer a wonderful pedal-assist experience that makes electric cycling magical.

 

[Larry Pizzi]

I have to say Larry that over here in the UK, Martin that runs this shop http://www.e-bikeshop.co.uk/ is a real credit to Haibike. His enthusiasm and belief in the product is higher than any other dealer that I have come across.
There are certainly a few dealers and just as importantly importers over here from other ebike manufacturers that could learn a thing or two from him.

Example...The UK BH experience is the complete opposite. I know of two dealers who have openly said that they are probably going to drop the product, and a third has indicated privately about doing the same. Expecting customers to wait in excess of four months just to get a spoke replaced is ridiculas, In my case waiting over four months to get the forks replaced, and even when they arrived, they were V brake is just as ridiculas. I just gave up and bought my own. In another case that I read about somewhere, a customer had to wait months whilst the dealer and importer argued over who was going to pay for a cracked console bracket. Arguing over a product with no value, whilst the customer is left without a bike, is no way to run a business. I could probably search and find many more tales of woe in relation to BH UK. but I've yet to see or hear one grumble about Haibike.

I can also think of a couple of lower end brands over here that also offer superb service and belief in their product. Their main market is for base model 'utility' bikes for want of another word, and given the amount of low end bikes that I'm starting to see about now, there is certainly a healthy market for them.

Sadly we also have a few who just import anything and everything from China, stick it on Ebay and probably just say tough when things go wrong, and they will.

Very good points Eddie. Its more then just the initial product. Its the complete experience. We strive to do this at the very highest levels because we know people depend on their eBikes for transportation as well as recreation. Sometimes consumers don't understand this when making a buying decision, but learn it the hard way. Interesting that the market is beginning to sort this out as it scales. Dealers, as you mention, don't want to have unhappy customers.

 

[Dave]

Looking at it from a buyer's perspective, my own, it's not so hard to establish needs, then identify the bikes/companies that fill those needs. I love to bike, but at my age (61), the hills in my area just discourage me from doing as much as I would like. Now, I am in better then average shape for my age, play tennis 3-5 times a week year round, and workout 3 times a week. With that in mind I wanted a bike that could help me on the hills ( torque, geared hub motor ), but still allow me to get a good workout ( pedal assist, torque sensor) I didn't need a lot of range, or a full suspension mountain bike. I am not a fan of upright riding, so I didn't want a cruiser or commuter style bike. The last thing I wanted was a twist & go bike.

So what companies & technology? With a little research is easy to see there are a few main players who offer top technology, stand behind the product, and have been in the business for enough time to know what they are doing. So you look at models from each company, and quickly cross out bikes that don't fit the style you are looking for. Pretty soon you are down to 2 or maybe 3 that fit the bill. Now comes the hard part because any of the " finalists " will work. This is where people like Court and the resources of this website are so valuable. You ask questions, watch reviews, get opinions, as you would on any major purchase, and make a final decision.

It all starts with accessing your needs and matching the product benefits with those needs. If I can come from zero knowledge about e-bikes and make what I think is an informed decision, anyone can. It is also apparent who the players are in this market, it just takes a little time and energy on the buyers part to pull the curtain back.

 

[Larry Pizzi]

Looking at it from a buyer's perspective, my own, it's not so hard to establish needs, then identify the bikes/companies that fill those needs. I love to bike, but at my age (61), the hills in my area just discourage me from doing as much as I would like. Now, I am in better then average shape for my age, play tennis 3-5 times a week year round, and workout 3 times a week. With that in mind I wanted a bike that could help me on the hills ( torque, geared hub motor ), but still allow me to get a good workout ( pedal assist, torque sensor) I didn't need a lot of range, or a full suspension mountain bike. I am not a fan of upright riding, so I didn't want a cruiser or commuter style bike. The last thing I wanted was a twist & go bike.

So what companies & technology? With a little research is easy to see there are a few main players who offer top technology, stand behind the product, and have been in the business for enough time to know what they are doing. So you look at models from each company, and quickly cross out bikes that don't fit the style you are looking for. Pretty soon you are down to 2 or maybe 3 that fit the bill. Now comes the hard part because any of the " finalists " will work. This is where people like Court and the resources of this website are so valuable. You ask questions, watch reviews, get opinions, as you would on any major purchase, and make a final decision.

It all starts with accessing your needs and matching the product benefits with those needs. If I can come from zero knowledge about e-bikes and make what I think is an informed decision, anyone can. It is also apparent who the players are in this market, it just takes a little time and energy on the buyers part to pull the curtain back.

Dave - You are clearly a well educated consumer. Congratulations on your process as this will insure your going to get a bike that is well matched to your preferred riding.

 

[George S.]

George - I think you may be missing my point. We have low-price, low-technology, throttle actuated products and yes, they sell quite well and people seem to like them, for the most part and we have sold 100's of thousands of them in the US.

But in the last few years, battery technology has dramatically improved, leading to the development of advanced drive systems that deliver a better user experience, and people are buying them. Last year our average retail price was approximately $2500, but we are still selling an opening priced bike for $599. The demographics are not only aging boomers, but also urban dwellers seeking a transportation alternative. This group is the most exciting because they are driving the market. And now, sport bikes that add electric assist so everyone can experience the joys of riding both on and off road.

My point is that IF people are buying higher priced electric bikes, shouldn't they get the advanced technology that delivers more then a simple throttle-only bike provides? Most of them have throttles too, but offer a wonderful pedal-assist experience that makes electric cycling magical.

Larry,

I'm not a huge believer in analysts, because they say things to try to make a reputation. Sometimes their premises and their conclusions are provocative. One e-bike analyst said that while Chinese and European ebike sales seem on a path for consistent long term growth, the US market may have a few years of growth and then it will plateau. I think the theory is that by going upscale, there is a small pool of customers, they will be served and then... (I can't find the citation, but it's just a point of view anyway.)

The other risk would be that the Chinese middle market of ebikes would simply become the lower end US market, and that bike would be good and cheap in 3 years. No value added doing anything here but unloading the shipping containers.

Another issue is whether the Chinese are moving ahead. The ties between Energie and Bafang and RPE, all tied back to B & K in China, are a little daunting. If that Bafang Gen 2 mid-drive works well, what is your relationship going to be to all these inter-twined companies? It's hard to believe the Chinese will not make a mid-drive that makes it very difficult to sell Bosch drives at their price point. I'll give them five years.

It's a tough business. China has volume. Mega-volume. They are getting very engaged in the American market, even the higher price points. This country seems to face rather stark decisions.

I wish ebikes were a mass market product with a huge installed base of basic bikes, something resembling a Model T. Whatever the reason, that market never developed. Maybe there wasn't enough "magic". Maybe there isn't enough to go around.

Best,
George

 

[Electric Bike Specialists]

Larry,

I'm not a huge believer in analysts, because they say things to try to make a reputation. Sometimes their premises and their conclusions are provocative. One e-bike analyst said that while Chinese and European ebike sales seem on a path for consistent long term growth, the US market may have a few years of growth and then it will plateau. I think the theory is that by going upscale, there is a small pool of customers, they will be served and then... (I can't find the citation, but it's just a point of view anyway.)

The other risk would be that the Chinese middle market of ebikes would simply become the lower end US market, and that bike would be good and cheap in 3 years. No value added doing anything here but unloading the shipping containers.

Another issue is whether the Chinese are moving ahead. The ties between Energie and Bafang and RPE, all tied back to B & K in China, are a little daunting. If that Bafang Gen 2 mid-drive works well, what is your relationship going to be to all these inter-twined companies? It's hard to believe the Chinese will not make a mid-drive that makes it very difficult to sell Bosch drives at their price point. I'll give them five years.

It's a tough business. China has volume. Mega-volume. They are getting very engaged in the American market, even the higher price points. This country seems to face rather stark decisions.

I wish ebikes were a mass market product with a huge installed base of basic bikes, something resembling a Model T. Whatever the reason, that market never developed. Maybe there wasn't enough "magic". Maybe there isn't enough to go around.

Best,
George

I'm sorry, George. I'm really lost here.

1. There is no Chinese middle market of Ebikes. There's just cheap. That's why they sell so many. Everything else is solely made for Western economies.
2. China has always produced emulations of high technology. Currie has access to it. Why would they worry about it?
3. Yeah, China is engaged in the American market of ebikes, as they are with every other market. That's a much larger issue than ebikes.
4. Model T = Currie Ezip Trailz. This has been mentioned a few times and I don't think you've addressed it. There's already a cheap ebike that anyone can get at Walmart.

Lastly, it's silly to assume that the ebike market never developed here. It's just starting. You've created a scenario like China, where Ebikes are successful because they are a cheap form of transportation. If you can't afford a car, buy an ebike. This is when the Model T scenerio works. But everyone already has a car in America. There is no necessity for alternate forms of transportation. And there isn't in Europe either. The growth and the ebike industry correlates with technology improving in the bikes. People need incentives to get out of their cars and ebikes providing more and more incentives.

 

[George S.]

I'm sorry, George. I'm really lost here.

1. There is no Chinese middle market of Ebikes. There's just cheap. That's why they sell so many. Everything else is solely made for Western economies.
2. China has always produced emulations of high technology. Currie has access to it. Why would they worry about it?
3. Yeah, China is engaged in the American market of ebikes, as they are with every other market. That's a much larger issue than ebikes.
4. Model T = Currie Ezip Trailz. This has been mentioned a few times and I don't think you've addressed it. There's already a cheap ebike that anyone can get at Walmart.

Lastly, it's silly to assume that the ebike market never developed here. It's just starting. You've created a scenario like China, where Ebikes are successful because they are a cheap form of transportation. If you can't afford a car, buy an ebike. This is when the Model T scenerio works. But everyone already has a car in America. There is no necessity for alternate forms of transportation. And there isn't in Europe either. The growth and the ebike industry correlates with technology improving in the bikes. People need incentives to get out of their cars and ebikes providing more and more incentives.

There is no Chinese middle market of Ebikes. There's just cheap. That's why they sell so many. Everything else is solely made for Western economies.

Since they are moving from lead acid to Lithium batteries there is clearly some progress. What is an upgrade to a better battery technology? The first Japanese cars were junk, but they do Ok today. Why would progress stop with the cheapest bike they can build? Factory wages in China are around $650 a month. That's not all that far from what people in a big box store make. Your point is that people want a "qualtiy" ebike, so you would figure this would apply to the Chinese, as wages rise?

China has always produced emulations of high technology. Currie has access to it. Why would they worry about it?

Same thing was always said about the Japanese, in the 50's. We did the same thing in the 1800's. The Brits wouldn't let anyone into a textile factory. But we found ways to steal the designs. There aren't a lot of American ebike parts.

The Chinese turn out engineers and other scientists. It's inconceivable they won't become innovators.

Yeah, China is engaged in the American market of ebikes, as they are with every other market. That's a much larger issue than ebikes.

No question about that. You can't import things forever without having it balance out. For now, we move our bonds/debt overseas. There are a lot of car plants in this country owned by overseas companies. Won't the Chinese be in this role, eventually, if ebikes are still around.

Model T = Currie Ezip Trailz. This has been mentioned to you a few times and I don't think you've addressed it. There's already a cheap ebike that anyone can get a Walmart.

The Model T started slow but they built a lot of units at the end. Your model would be that, in the early years, they would ditch the concept and say “We need something fancier”. The point was the price came down and the unit sales went up. If you have a product produced offshore, and your market is a tiny fraction of the global market, none of these synergies work. Plus the Model T drove a model for labor where you pay more. We don't make them here, so... Wages are rising in Chinese factories.

The people who need ebikes are people who don't earn enough to afford cars. That's a huge market. The lower wage people in this country are apathetic. They don't have access to banking. They don't get 2% back on their credit cards. Look where poor people do their banking. They'll never be able to buy a house. Luxury retailers are the place to be. That's where the margins are. You want to make money in this country, sell upscale.

Being called a Model T should be a pretty coveted prize. I think a product that gets that designation has to be pretty special. It has to essentially transform the economy, usher in a new era. We actually need a new era because we face different limits. The only way to provide the middle class and down in this country with a reasonable share of life's experiences is to better match the much lower standard of living. Maybe somebody else can sell products to the less wealthy folks, products that would rekindle a sense of self-worth. We are a consumer society. Products = Experiences. The low income groups don't sit around in the break room and say “Wow, I'd like to get an ebike, but the drive train just isn't refined enough yet”.

The Trailz is not a Model T to me.

 

[Larry Pizzi]

Larry,

I'm not a huge believer in analysts, because they say things to try to make a reputation. Sometimes their premises and their conclusions are provocative. One e-bike analyst said that while Chinese and European ebike sales seem on a path for consistent long term growth, the US market may have a few years of growth and then it will plateau. I think the theory is that by going upscale, there is a small pool of customers, they will be served and then... (I can't find the citation, but it's just a point of view anyway.)

The other risk would be that the Chinese middle market of ebikes would simply become the lower end US market, and that bike would be good and cheap in 3 years. No value added doing anything here but unloading the shipping containers.

Another issue is whether the Chinese are moving ahead. The ties between Energie and Bafang and RPE, all tied back to B & K in China, are a little daunting. If that Bafang Gen 2 mid-drive works well, what is your relationship going to be to all these inter-twined companies? It's hard to believe the Chinese will not make a mid-drive that makes it very difficult to sell Bosch drives at their price point. I'll give them five years.

It's a tough business. China has volume. Mega-volume. They are getting very engaged in the American market, even the higher price points. This country seems to face rather stark decisions.

I wish ebikes were a mass market product with a huge installed base of basic bikes, something resembling a Model T. Whatever the reason, that market never developed. Maybe there wasn't enough "magic". Maybe there isn't enough to go around.

Best,
George

There is no Chinese middle market of Ebikes. There's just cheap. That's why they sell so many. Everything else is solely made for Western economies.

Since they are moving from lead acid to Lithium batteries there is clearly some progress. What is an upgrade to a better battery technology? The first Japanese cars were junk, but they do Ok today. Why would progress stop with the cheapest bike they can build? Factory wages in China are around $650 a month. That's not all that far from what people in a big box store make. Your point is that people want a "qualtiy" ebike, so you would figure this would apply to the Chinese, as wages rise?

China has always produced emulations of high technology. Currie has access to it. Why would they worry about it?

Same thing was always said about the Japanese, in the 50's. We did the same thing in the 1800's. The Brits wouldn't let anyone into a textile factory. But we found ways to steal the designs. There aren't a lot of American ebike parts.

The Chinese turn out engineers and other scientists. It's inconceivable they won't become innovators.

Yeah, China is engaged in the American market of ebikes, as they are with every other market. That's a much larger issue than ebikes.

No question about that. You can't import things forever without having it balance out. For now, we move our bonds/debt overseas. There are a lot of car plants in this country owned by overseas companies. Won't the Chinese be in this role, eventually, if ebikes are still around.

Model T = Currie Ezip Trailz. This has been mentioned to you a few times and I don't think you've addressed it. There's already a cheap ebike that anyone can get a Walmart.

The Model T started slow but they built a lot of units at the end. Your model would be that, in the early years, they would ditch the concept and say “We need something fancier”. The point was the price came down and the unit sales went up. If you have a product produced offshore, and your market is a tiny fraction of the global market, none of these synergies work. Plus the Model T drove a model for labor where you pay more. We don't make them here, so... Wages are rising in Chinese factories.

The people who need ebikes are people who don't earn enough to afford cars. That's a huge market. The lower wage people in this country are apathetic. They don't have access to banking. They don't get 2% back on their credit cards. Look where poor people do their banking. They'll never be able to buy a house. Luxury retailers are the place to be. That's where the margins are. You want to make money in this country, sell upscale.

Being called a Model T should be a pretty coveted prize. I think a product that gets that designation has to be pretty special. It has to essentially transform the economy, usher in a new era. We actually need a new era because we face different limits. The only way to provide the middle class and down in this country with a reasonable share of life's experiences is to better match the much lower standard of living. Maybe somebody else can sell products to the less wealthy folks, products that would rekindle a sense of self-worth. We are a consumer society. Products = Experiences. The low income groups don't sit around in the break room and say “Wow, I'd like to get an ebike, but the drive train just isn't refined enough yet”.

The Trailz is not a Model T to me.

George,

These industry analysts know very little about the US industry because there is no available data form a reputable tracking source like there is in the traditional bicycle industry. They attempt to aggregate information by calling around to industry leaders and participants and get their opinions so they can put them into a research report to sell back to the industry. I don't pay much attention because I am much closer to the industry at every level then they will every be. So when they say the US market may have a few years of growth and then it will plateau, they have no idea as their research is not based on any accurate data.

The Chinese can and are making some good products but their domestic market is completely different then anywhere in the western world, and thus their middle market products will never be suitable for western consumption on a large scale. They do, however have the ability to copy western market products and find ways to get cost out, and they do this today. Over the years we have seen hundreds of enthusiastic business types attempt to bring this "off-the-shelf" product to the US market by slapping some decals onto it and expecting that they will be successful. They never are because it takes millions of dollars to build a company and a brand that can create great products and great customer experiences throughout the products lifecycle. I can assure you that it takes much more then unloading shipping containers.

Are the Chinese moving ahead? Sure they are, but so is the rest of the industry worldwide. Great technology trickles down market but most always starts at the top because it takes heavy investment to engineer and develop products that deliver a wonderful customer experience. Do you think that a company like Bosch is just sitting by and waiting for the Chinese to make something that is almost as good at a fraction of the price? Not likely. And manufacturing in China is no longer inexpensive, especially considering what must be done to achieve acceptable quality for western consumers.

It is a tough business, or it has been in the past. But at long last, the market is changing and its changing as a result of a number of things converging. We are just at the beginning. Ebikes will be part of a changing mobility paradigm that has only recently begun.

Perhaps the Model T is our newest IZIP E3 Path+ at $2200. It has it all going on: http://electricbikereport.com/izip-e3-path-electric-bike-pictures-specs-2014/

 

[calvin]

Currie makes something for everybody, note the tabs: http://www.currietech.com/ .....

 

[George S.]

Perhaps the Model T is our newest IZIP E3 Path+ at $2200. It has it all going on: http://electricbikereport.com/izip-e3-path-electric-bike-pictures-specs-2014/

Larry,

Solid set of features. I'm sure with that power and range, people could do a lot with a bike like that. Not sure what it takes to sell a million or two. Maybe test rides across America.

Good luck, to anyone in the industry.
George

 

[Larry Pizzi]

Larry,

Solid set of features. I'm sure with that power and range, people could do a lot with a bike like that. Not sure what it takes to sell a million or two. Maybe test rides across America.

Good luck, to anyone in the industry.
George

Thanks George. We are working hard to get the word out.

 

[Ralph]

Admittedly, I am not an experienced cyclist, but I found that while I was test riding the E3 Dash and playing with the level of assist AND the gears that it made the experience that much better. I haven't gotten my bike yet, but I suspect that having the gears will be superior to not having them.

My guess is that the weight issue is immaterial given the strength of the motors on these newer tech bikes.

I still think that the Currie PAG/TAG+ system on the E3 Dash and the new Path+ is the best combination of features. You get pedal assist, throttle assist and throttle assist while in pedal assist mode. You pays your money and takes your choice!

 

[calvin]

Admittedly, I am not an experienced cyclist, but I found that while I was test riding the E3 Dash and playing with the level of assist AND the gears that it made the experience that much better. I haven't gotten my bike yet, but I suspect that having the gears will be superior to not having them.

My guess is that the weight issue is immaterial given the strength of the motors on these newer tech bikes.

I still think that the Currie PAG/TAG+ system on the E3 Dash and the new Path+ is the best combination of features. You get pedal assist, throttle assist and throttle assist while in pedal assist mode. You pays your money and takes your choice!

48volt battery, torque sensor, 500 watt gearless rear hub motor ( silent running!), throttle, cruise control, external LCD controls, dual front fork suspension and Court said he said he was impressed. Not much reason to hang on to your money, now is it?

 

[DHS]

Seems to me twist and go throttles are for scooters not pedalecs. Want something "effortless" - buy a bike with a throttle. However, if your goal is no sweat hill busting and faster all round two wheeling while retaining the exercise benefits of moderate pedalling - buy a pure pedalec - no throttle/no cheating.