Tour '25

[stompandgo]

Great to have you and @Rás Cnoic sharing your deep knowledge and understanding of pro racing here. Makes watching it vastly more interesting.

Thank you for your kind words. I was never a pro, just a high category amateur who raced in the pro fields most of the time.

Another thing I noticed yesterday, and I'm seeing the same thing today, is that UAE is doing a lot of work. I'm starting to think that the reason that Visma isn't as visible at the front is less about fitness and more about strategy. We shall see. Nothing would please me more to see that play out.

 

[Rás Cnoic]

Bad crash. Terrible moment. Healy caught up but not hurt, racing to get back on but slim chance with the speed & climb. He was in the front group defending his 8th place. Guess he'll be able to aim for further breakaways.

 

[Rás Cnoic]

Well that was intense! Lot to take in. Gutted for Healy. Finished 1.45 down. But the main battle on that last climb was riveting. Different tactics.

 

[Jeremy McCreary]

Really worried about that last crash. Betting a least one victim's out of the race now. Didn't at all like the way he was struggling to get his weight on his legs — even with 2 guys pulling him up.

Can you imagine training, not just over the last year, but for much of your life, to arrive at the moment before the crash — with all the sacrifices that entails — only to taken out in an instant by someone's else's mistake? Brutal sport.

Hope Philipsen is on the mend.

 

[stompandgo]

TP lost his #1 support rider. Hopefully, he will return. I don't get why Visma didn't lead out Jonas. He was catching TP but ran out of road. A leadout would have cinched the stage win. There's either some 3D chess being played, or Visma is suffering. I can't see it any other way.

 

[Jeremy McCreary]

Astounding! After ~110 km in the saddle, the peloton was just chatting away at 37 mph on a straight flat open road. They had a little help from a cross-tailwind, but not much of one.

Good GCN piece on how the pros could have gotten this fast without doping:

 

[stompandgo]

Peacock actually had some interesting conversation on this flat, boring stage. They, like most of us, don't understand why Visma is doing what they're doing, but they made a good point for once. WVA has been used, but not much. Mateo has been used, but not much. Sepp hasn't been use at all. Nothing. Jonas's time deficit is almost entirely on him, as it came in the first ITT. Monday will be the day when the knives come out. Let's see how Visma stacks up.

 

[Jeremy McCreary]

Peacock actually had some interesting conversation on this flat, boring stage. They, like most of us, don't understand why Visma is doing what they're doing, but they made a good point for once. WVA has been used, but not much. Mateo has been used, but not much. Sepp hasn't been use at all. Nothing. Jonas's time deficit is almost entirely on him, as it came in the first ITT. Monday will be the day when the knives come out. Let's see how Visma stacks up.

I don't pretend to understand these things, but Visma's surely in a better position to know what to do than anyone else. They're far from beginners at this, and they know a lot more about the state of their own team.

Not saying Visma's infallible. But is there any way in which their strategy so far makes sense?

 

[stompandgo]

Up until the ITT, not really. After the TT GC loss, I can see how animating and potentially frustrating UAE, Alpecin, Quickstep, and Arkea to work when they don't want to could make them do work when they hadn't planned on it. It could be the long view, or it could be rope a dope. Whether it's worth the effort, I'm not sure.

Another factor is that Mateo is in 8th place, 2:49 down. That opens up a lot of options because TP doesn't have anyone like that now. If Jonas and at least one of Mateo, Wout, or Sepp can either get away or open up a gap on a climb, watch out. They will beat TP to a pulp. Everyone thinks he's Superman, but this is team racing, and right now, I like Visma over UAE in that department.

 

[Jeremy McCreary]

Almeida just abandoned. Heroic effort to soldier on after his crash. What a disappointment for him and UAE.

 

[Rás Cnoic]

Dunbar didn't start yesterday after the same crash. His first TdF and he didn't even make the mountains. Cruel sport.

 

[Jeremy McCreary]

Amazing duet by MVDP and Richaert, out front since the start, and the gap is widening again now! Commentators have been saying all along that they'll be caught, but...

 

[Rás Cnoic]

MVDP last hurrah before the doom of the mountains.

 

[Rás Cnoic]

Went for a little spin today and used Strava for the first time so thought I'd chuck up my stats for your perusal:

So apparently I averaged a 266W power output over 205km. This works out to a weighted average power output of 317W. Strava says weighted average power is its “best guess” at your average power if you rode at the exact same wattage for the entire ride. So not bad.

Apparently I hit a maximum power of 969W for 3 seconds; 380W for 20 minutes; 356W for 30 minutes and 324W for 60 minutes...

Ooops! My mistake! Those would be Ben Healy's stats from his breakaway stage win the other day. Silly me...

 

[Jeremy McCreary]

So apparently I averaged a 266W power output over 205km. This works out to a weighted average power output of 317W. Strava says weighted average power is its “best guess” at your average power if you rode at the exact same wattage for the entire ride. So not bad....

Ooops! My mistake! Those would be Ben Healy's stats from his breakaway stage win the other day. Silly me...

Well, divide the distance by 7 and the weighted average power by 2.2, and you have undulating Stage 3 of my solo Tour de Carlsbad. Which I'm still winning, I'll have you know!

For this same ride of mine, the Specialized app gives a flattering "adjusted rider power" of 168W; RideWithGPS, a "WR power" of 155W; and Strava, a stingy "weighted average power" of 146W. The factor of 2.2 above is based on the worst-case Strava number.

So what's a guy to believe? Their averaging methods are total black boxes. Wonder if any of them match normalized power (a 4th power version of a root mean square average)?

 

[Stefan Mikes]

Went for a little spin today and used Strava for the first time so thought I'd chuck up my stats for your perusal:

So apparently I averaged a 266W power output over 205km. This works out to a weighted average power output of 317W. Strava says weighted average power is its “best guess” at your average power if you rode at the exact same wattage for the entire ride. So not bad.

Apparently I hit a maximum power of 969W for 3 seconds; 380W for 20 minutes; 356W for 30 minutes and 324W for 60 minutes...

Ooops! My mistake! Those would be Ben Healy's stats from his breakaway stage win the other day. Silly me...

View attachment 196787

Funny to think the very same Szymon Gruchalski who shot the photo of Ben Healy was the same person who shot three best photos of me during Sudovia Gravel 24

 

[Rás Cnoic]

Funny to think the very same Szymon Gruchalski who shot the photo of Ben Healy was the same person who shot three best photos of me during Sudovia Gravel 24

Similar Strava States as well I believe.

 

[Stefan Mikes]

TdF 2025, Stage 9

Photo: Szymon Gruchalski Cycling. He is the official Eurosport photographer.

Sudovia Gravel 2024

Photos: Szymon Gruchalski Cycling

 

[Jeremy McCreary]

TdF 2025, Stage 9

View attachment 196799

That first TdF shot's just magical.

 

[Stefan Mikes]

That first TdF shot's just magical.

The Gruchalskis drove to the 30th km specifically for the sunflower photos. Later, they drove to the finish line at a high speed. What the married couple didn't expect was their car didn't have enough fuel! They reached the finish line on the fumes, actually. All ended well!