With 125% tariffs, will the e-bike market die?
- Thread starter DDBB
- Start date
dblhelix
Well-Known Member
People will buy, but the quest for mass adoption is dead in its tracks, taking infrastructure investment with it.
There's no cogent vision to even consider investing in, whether in boutique domestic initiatives vs what I suspect will be the new normal: whack-a-mole shipping diversions to favored country-of-the-week before heading here. But let's say the chaos dies down after 'deals' are made to blunt the worst. When I tell ppl my Tern cost me $3500, they recoil in horror. I don't see how the market grows, even with only modest increases. Then there's the daily 'nobody likes EV anymore' in my feed.
There's no cogent vision to even consider investing in, whether in boutique domestic initiatives vs what I suspect will be the new normal: whack-a-mole shipping diversions to favored country-of-the-week before heading here. But let's say the chaos dies down after 'deals' are made to blunt the worst. When I tell ppl my Tern cost me $3500, they recoil in horror. I don't see how the market grows, even with only modest increases. Then there's the daily 'nobody likes EV anymore' in my feed.
PedalUma
Well-Known Member
- Region
- USA
- City
- Petaluma, CA
After a year of working at someone else's eBike shop. I am back on my own doing conversions and repairs. If you are only importing the key ingredient, the motor, that cuts down on the total tax. It is also recycling cycling, because you are taking an already great existing bike and updating it. These can look beautiful and work better than the ones from stores, and also do not require expensive proprietary service. Now if bike motors with their color displays were classified as electronics, that would be great. Batteries and chargers too.
Most here (and elsewhere) are not builders. If they can't buy a ready to ride e-bike, they won't buy period.. Before covid and when I bought my 1st e-bike, prices were high, now they are low but I'm afraid it's only going to be this way for a short time. I have two e-bikes but if I was in the market for a new one, I'd be buying ASAP. It's possible a bunch will sell just for fear of the tariffs but once they hit, it's going to be game over. Imagine what this means to the e-bike business in China
Gionnirocket
Well-Known Member
- Region
- USA
- City
- Y. O.
Chargeride
Well-Known Member
It's still Sunday, Trump will have changed his mind three times by Tuesday afternoon.
Aushiker
Well-Known Member
- Region
- Australia
- City
- Walyalup, Western Australia
Smart move (the phone). Just be quick about it. You never know what tomorrow will bring.
Stefan Mikes
Gravel e-biker
- Region
- Europe
- City
- Mazovia, PL
If I'm not wrong, a vast majority of American voters chose Trump and Vance. After January 6th. Eat lead.
Anyway, I'm glad to picture the United States devoid of the Chinese "e-bike" scrap.
Anyway, I'm glad to picture the United States devoid of the Chinese "e-bike" scrap.
dblhelix
Well-Known Member
Not the vast majority of voters. A vast majority of state electoral votes. It's not one vote/person. The same ten states or so 'decide' US presidential elections. If you live in a state like Maryland, where Kamala Harris's vote share exceeded that of her home state California, you are a mere spectator while the 'swing states' conduct the real election. The Chinese 'ebike' scrap, however, is everywhere.
JimFMB
Active Member
You are wrong.
Stefan Mikes
Gravel e-biker
- Region
- Europe
- City
- Mazovia, PL
Thank you for the explanation. Am I the only person to think the U.S. election system is outdated and not representing its voters?
dblhelix
Well-Known Member
You are definitely not alone.
dblhelix
Well-Known Member
Trump hates Maryland. After a long process that awarded the new FBI location to Greenbelt, MD, Trump capriciously rescinded it., The NIH, of all things, is in the crosshairs. This is called 'eating your seed corn,' which people won't figure out until the 'best and the brightest' look elsewhere. Stateside it will be crickets until people notice their govt services aren't working too well for them. National park visitors will be first to complain. Our throttle-using friends. The types of people this administration considers collateral damage -- DEI-loving, wasteful, federal workers are the Eurobike contingent. It's a broad brush, but you get the picture.
Stefan Mikes
Gravel e-biker
- Region
- Europe
- City
- Mazovia, PL
I wonder how the tariffs would affect the EU made e-bikes. (Let us assume the tariffs would stay reasonably low with the EU). Yes, the components on Cube, Canyon or R&M (just to name a few) are often Taiwanese or Chinese but "the country of origin" will read "European Union". Funnily enough Specialized or Trek or other American brand e-bikes would be taxed as for Taiwan but what about these made in Europe?
Base
Bike nerd
- Region
- Europe
- City
- in the exact center of the Netherlands
Trek produces E-bikes at Diamant for a few years now... like since 2009. so that would be an EU bike
dblhelix
Well-Known Member
I think ppl here have a lot more to digest than e-bike purchases. Some already understand the irreversible damage wrought by a Liberation Day dog-and-pony show. I'm not saying that Trump is incorrect in noting tariff disparities, but the approach is irresponsible. Two great factors contributing to American prosperity are the investment in the US/US leadership as a safe harbor and the 'brain drain' in our favor as post-undergraduate research/innovation draws the 'best & brightest' from other countries. Both are now uncertain.
I've biked all over the US through many communities. Prosperous areas tend to have universities and hospitals/ health care systems as anchors coupled to stable local govt and optimally, tourism is in the mix. Rural areas depend on agricultural exports. Countless small businesses depend on imports. And nobody can assess/plan in this limbo.
It's a two-sided coin. I see potential buyers of Euro bikes exhibiting caution until there's at least some certainly in planning/forecasting. I just don't see a lot of purchases while retirements fluctuate wildly. The other side of the coin is will the Europeans remain in the US market? Is there enough market share to be bothered?
An RM is in better shape than a Tern in that tariffs are suffered by the importer (dealer). Did you see how Tern was sweating the shipment from Vietnam? So an RM can choose to exit rather easily as they never made an investment in distribution, parts hub, or even an office! If their dealers crumble, they are gone.
What boggles the mind is that if the target is China, why is the administration not working *with* European partners and others? Europe has had protectionist measure in place vs Chinese dumping for some time now. How could there not be a meeting of the minds?
Chargeride
Well-Known Member
Pelossi was complaining about China tariffs in the 90s with practically the same chart, Trump said he was the only President that would do this.
He will back down, it's all 'let's get ready to rumble.'
He will back down, it's all 'let's get ready to rumble.'
dblhelix
Well-Known Member
This isn't about D v R. The Dems deserved to lose, unfortunately.
Trump is 'rumbling' with too many people. The Trump-friendly Supreme Court handed down a 9-0 decision to return a Marylander from an El Salvador jail for some old-fashioned due process. What's the administration waiting for? I'll be happy to kick this guy's ass out once some evidence is put on the table of alleged MS-13 leadership.
To the question posed: I see a dampening of the Euro ebike market just on the talk of recession alone. But I also see the brands as rational actors who will exit if it's not working for them. It's not "Trump's world, and we just live in it." I'd argue that NATO is dead, and perception of the stability of the US market has changed.
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