Will EBikeshare Replace EBike Ownership For Most People in Cities?

[Asher]

A couple years ago I did a back of the envelope analysis of the point to point rental scooter business in SF and came out with annual revenue numbers that would be adequate for a single 7/11 store. For point to point bike rental I think it's a bit worse, because the capital and maintenance costs for rolling stock are a bit higher. There's just no real business there. (note that I said "point to point rental"). I think there is a real business oppo for small rent-by-the day operations oriented to tourists, but that is something different.

So why all the noise and expansion around bike and scooter point to point rentals? They're either running on a subsidy (eg. the carbon penalty offsets car manufacturers pay), or they're in the business of selling stock to suckers. Or both. The only consumer advantages I can see to ad hoc renting vs. private ownership are if you have limited storage, are worried about theft, don't want to do maintenance, or your usage rate is less than two trips a month. Right now the services are priced at a loss; the incentives to own grow even stronger if they price to sustain the business or even to (gasp) turn a profit.

I could maybe see point to point bike&scooter rental operating successfully as a co-op, but there's no big windfall exit strategy there. But perhaps thats the reason uber and lyft refused to sell their fleets when they retired obsolete models and junked them instead. Don't give the co-ops any help getting started.

Mostly agree, but the scooters were actually worse since their lifespans were short, but this seems to have improved.

Investment certainly seems to be the stumbling block as this Streetsblog article discussing the Bikeshare Transit Act of 2021 describes “87 percent of all shared-cycling trips take place in just six metro areas: San Francisco, Boston, Chicago, Honolulu, New York, and Washington, D.C., all of which have made significant local investments into docked systems”.

Perhaps making bikeshare eligible for federal transit funding treating them like buses would provide more stability and encourage more corporate sponsorship.

Investment is a stumbling block because the services don't garner enough interest to pay for themselves in the places they're operated. LA's bikeshare cost $10+ in ops costs per trip (and trips average 1-1.5 miles for systems). The Pasadena version was $35+, I calculated from one news article (Pasadena shut it down). Even subsidizing it to the amount transit is, $1 a mile, won't get you a lot of bikeshare. It's just not a good system unless you have a very high density of short multidirectional trips all day, ideally with low car ownership and/or great bike infra. Which describes very few places in the US. I've worked in transport and raised these issues and no one has any response beyond 'but we like bikeshare!' it's (lame*) bikes for people who find bike ownership icky. The irony is it's not even that popular among casual bike riders either, except maybe if their bike is broken and they want to do something touristy.


*Except Jump bikes, those are great.

 

[Dewey]

Lyft announce a new ebike model they will introduce to the Bay Wheels fleet then Chicago's Divvy fleet, before presumably adding it to other cities bikeshare systems https://www.lyft.com/blog/posts/meet-lyfts-new-ebike
They are touting a "seamless, single gear transmission that is tuned perfectly for all speeds and grades of road, not requiring any manual or automatic transitions." No indication what that actually means regarding gears, they better have some for hilly SF & DC

Update: Bloomberg article confirms the bike does not have a shifter, damn I liked the Enviolo CVT on the current gen ebike.

 

[Kayakguy]

Just wanting to own stuff is changing with the younger generation. Many that don't need a car, don't want a car and therefore won't buy a car. That's probably smart! I know I wanted a car long before I needed a car.

As for ebikes, you're leaving a few segments of buyers out of the equation. The wannabe rider that wants an ebike for more than just transportation. The buyer that will use the bike for transportation, but also wants to stay or get in shape. That's more difficult when you get a different bike everytime out. And the recrational rider that wants to throw the bike on/in the car, get out of the city for the weekend and ride 'the famous rail trail' everyone's talking about. Then there's the city dweller that wants to get out and mountain bike. That can include the growing number of ebike competition mtb events.

I don't live in a city, so I'm not in their target market, but I've used my ebikes for 3-1/2 years for transport, recreation and fitness. They are just so much fun and useful.

I hope ebikeshares will become commonplace in most cities, I'd likely visit for pleasure more often. I think it will be awhile before they're commonplace though. For the 4 years this forum has existed, many of us thought ebikes were ready to really take off in North America. They are, sort of. It's a slow growth though and the market here is tiny. It's going to take investment by the brands for mainstream advertising and education. Local and state governments will need to get on board with public information campaigns. European style schemes to promote ebikes and possibly offer tax credits for using ebikes, instead of a car. If one buys an electric car, they get a huge tax write-off and they never pay highway gasoline tax, the money that pays for our roadway infrastructure.

I fear a lot will have to change before ebikes take off like they have in Europe. Europe developed a bicycle culture, seriously since WWII. A lot due to necessity, a great deal of Europe was destroyed and few had money for cars, that's if you could get one. If you needed to get from A to B, you rode a bike. North America, and in particular the US, there was plenty of money and plenty of jobs to go around. Riding a bike was what poor people and children did. At best it was a toy! We didn't build any cycling infrastructure. Most people still don't consider a bicycle a serious transportation alternative. And far fewer children dream of a bike under the Christmas Tree. They want an iPhone, iPad or PlayStation. The market to sell any bike is small in N.A., smaller for ebikes, smaller for ebikeshares.

I'm hopeful, but pragmatic at this point. The nearest "city" to me, a city of 65,000 residents installed a regular bikeshare last summer, but they only have it available during warmer months. Even the bikeshare company is treating it as a novelty for tourists.



In the meantime I'm all in! The more the merrier, the more the cheaper! I do my best to inform anyone that'll listen. Last fall I was riding with a buddy and his Haibike, I on my BH and there was a guy in town that was very interested in our bikes. After giving him the full tour, he left us saying: "so it's a fancy moped?". Oh well.

Washington State is considering a mileage tax, rather than gas tax, because hybrids and all-electric vehicles are making it harder to fund infrastructure. Seems fair, I think.

 

[Kayakguy]

It works in Madrid. Just simple bikes. No more than 15mph. The rest of the world seems not so concerned with speed or gearing.

When I was in Madrid a few years ago, I was astonished at how many (gas) scooters were being used. Even the cops used them. Could have changed by now, of course.

 

[Dewey]

The Post reports a big expansion planned for the Washington, DC, Capital Bikeshare system, currently operating in its 11th year with 330 stations, 2,500 pedal bikes, and 600 ebikes, the goal over the next 5 years is to expand by 80 stations a year, and 3,500 ebikes - it's unclear from the article if these will be the new Lyft ebikeshare model

 

[ActionJackson]

The Post reports a big expansion planned for the Washington, DC, Capital Bikeshare system, currently operating in its 11th year with 330 stations, 2,500 pedal bikes, and 600 ebikes, the goal over the next 5 years is to expand by 80 stations a year, and 3,500 ebikes - it's unclear from the article if these will be the new Lyft ebikeshare model

Good for DC! There are several nationwide e-bike share networks in Japan. The largest is DoCoMo Cycle with something near 10,000 bike’s total. Doesn’t come close to the number of personally owned e-bike’s (maybe a couple million or so?) but does provide an option for people on a limited income like students or younger people doing gig work. I rent them sometimes because I can walk one way to a far away destination and return by bike. Luckily the stupid e-scooters are now classified as scooters here and require a real driver’s license, tags, and motorcycle insurance.

 

[JASmith]

It works in Madrid. Just simple bikes. No more than 15mph. The rest of the world seems not so concerned with speed or gearing.

Having lived in Madrid, like most of the old world, things are much closer together than in the US. The per capita GDP in Spain is also a quarter that of the US with very high taxes, meaning they don't have a huge amount of disposable income and will pick the cheapest option like simple bikes. Given more income and longer distances they would likely have different preferences.

I think e-bike rentals will be a fantastic options in homogenous cultures that have a unified intolerance for criminality or socially disruptive behavior, like Japan or Singapore for example where pretty much everyone plays by the rules with the good of the whole more important than the whims of the individual and stepping outside those acceptable standards of behavior have extreme repercussions like $1000 fines for spitting on the street, harsh immigration enforcement, and the mandatory death penalty for having marijuana over a certain quantity with a 99% conviction rate when caught in Singapore (with a very high chance of being caught due to all the cameras and a community volunteer program to whistleblow on rule breakers). When we lived in Singapore, we never bothered to lock our doors and when we went skating in the park we would leave our backpacks with purse on a bench and return 15-30mins later knowing it would be there without question when we got back, it never even crossed our minds otherwise as even stores when they close just turn off the lights and put a rope over the entrance or if an open vendor will put a large tablecloth over their wares knowing they would be there the next day with no reason to lock them up. Contrast that with many cities in the US, where you have drug tent cities and people killing each other for their sneakers with so many that not only don't believe in harmonious "needs of the many outweigh needs of the few" mantra but actively want to sow disorder and chaos and it would never work unless just massively subsidized or controlled by the government where they can overcome the economics of it by just throwing tax payer money to cover the losses. Heck, I think Amazon was worried about using automated vehicles or drones to deliver packages because of looters that would target them for attack or vandalism.

 

[Dewey]

Good for DC! There are several nationwide e-bike share networks in Japan. The largest is DoCoMo Cycle with something near 10,000 bike’s total. Doesn’t come close to the number of personally owned e-bike’s (maybe a couple million or so?) but does provide an option for people on a limited income like students or younger people doing gig work. I rent them sometimes because I can walk one way to a far away destination and return by bike. Luckily the stupid e-scooters are now classified as scooters here and require a real driver’s license, tags, and motorcycle insurance.

Good luck with the Olympics! From what I've seen from a Japan expat Youtuber's cycle ride across the Shimanami Kaido it seems cycle hire and bikeshare outside Tokyo are also a popular way for tourists to get around where there is good cycling infrastructure.

 

[Dewey]

I think e-bike rentals will be a fantastic options in homogenous cultures that have a unified intolerance for criminality or socially disruptive behavior, like Japan or Singapore...Contrast that with many cities in the US...and it would never work unless just massively subsidized

Bikeshare can work in the US provided the system is run intelligently, I recognize Capital Bikeshare received seed funding from DC area local County governments. 11 years later, and CaBi has seen the Venture Capital bikeshare funded competitors from China come and go. I appreciate CaBi's Equity program that for individuals who qualify for state or federal assistance programs can sign up for $5 for an annual membership, and enjoy unlimited rides up to 60 minutes without charge, and have the CaBi+ $1 ebike usage fee waived. The system still receives funding from local governments, but there is also a DC law that requires businesses to provide employees a cycle commuter benefit, so for example the University I work for subsidizes Capital Bikeshare so I only pay a $25 annual membership fee, and I think that's a useful way to have businesses contribute to their communities as well as helping employee wellness programs. Having a sponsor on bikeshare is another way to spread the cost eg CitiBank logo on the NYC bikeshare system, Santander on London's, etc.

The challenge in the US is to persuade local governments to do the politically unpopular and invest in the necessary accompanying street bicycle infrastructure, adopt Vision Zero plans, implement traffic abatement, reconfigure streets to include Protected Bike Lane's, and ask property developers to pay a fair share of the installation and running costs of bicycle infrastructure. DC has a long way to go but is doing better than neighboring Arlington, VA, where Amazon is building it's HQ2 and this week announced it would pay it's employees who cycle commute up to $400 per month including monthly ebike leases to bike to work. This is super nice for those who will benefit but the planned bicycle infrastructure around HQ2 leaves much to be desired and Arlington County should be holding the property developer JBG Smith's feet to the fire to pay for building PBL's on every city block they develop.

 

[ActionJackson]

Good luck with the Olympics! From what I've seen from a Japan expat Youtuber's cycle ride across the Shimanami Kaido it seems cycle hire and bikeshare outside Tokyo are also a popular way for tourists to get around where there is good cycling infrastructure.

Thanks! Olympics will be held without foreign spectators, and 10,000 max local spectators on opening day. We are not expecting a lot of tourists but public opinion isn’t in favor of that anyways. I think it will be a very sleepy Olympics.

Shimanami Kaido is very famous, actually I think I can do it with my e-bike now. That would make a good road trip too! There’s a lot of courses in the 45km range around Tokyo - my intentions are to remain on dedicated bike+walk paths so I’ll probably do these often. Luckily I have a dedicated 2km biking track nearby that I can just do continuous laps on for exercise.

I have often thought that it would be nice if a global manufacturer set up a network of battery rental locations where you could rent a standardized generic battery that fits several bike types and brands - then people could fly into a country with their ebikes, rent a battery, and go.

 

[JASmith]

Bikeshare can work in the US provided the system is run intelligently, I recognize Capital Bikeshare received seed funding from DC area local County governments. 11 years later, and CaBi has seen the Venture Capital bikeshare funded competitors from China come and go. I appreciate CaBi's Equity program that for individuals who qualify for state or federal assistance programs can sign up for $5 for an annual membership, and enjoy unlimited rides up to 60 minutes without charge, and have the CaBi+ $1 ebike usage fee waived. The system still receives funding from local governments, but there is also a DC law that requires businesses to provide employees a cycle commuter benefit, so for example the University I work for subsidizes Capital Bikeshare so I only pay a $25 annual membership fee, and I think that's a useful way to have businesses contribute to their communities as well as helping employee wellness programs. Having a sponsor on bikeshare is another way to spread the cost eg CitiBank logo on the NYC bikeshare system, Santander on London's, etc.

The challenge in the US is to persuade local governments to do the politically unpopular and invest in the necessary accompanying street bicycle infrastructure, adopt Vision Zero plans, implement traffic abatement, reconfigure streets to include Protected Bike Lane's, and ask property developers to pay a fair share of the installation and running costs of bicycle infrastructure. DC has a long way to go but is doing better than neighboring Arlington, VA, where Amazon is building it's HQ2 and this week announced it would pay it's employees who cycle commute up to $400 per month including monthly ebike leases to bike to work. This is super nice for those who will benefit but the planned bicycle infrastructure around HQ2 leaves much to be desired and Arlington County should be holding the property developer JBG Smith's feet to the fire to pay for building PBL's on every city block they develop.

Anything is sustainable if you put government regulations in to force its adoption and overcome a unsuccessful business model by dumping taxpayer money into it. The appeal of "free" stuff loses its luster when you think long and hard about where that money is coming from, which is your back pocket only you have lost power as an individual to decide exactly where that money goes when coerced by the government that can seize your property or remove your freedom and incarcerate you for resisting. While it is certainly the states responsibility to build road infrastructure if the public demands it, I don't believe they should be picking winners and losers and dumping cash on something that can't float on its own merits. I've also lived in Germany as a little girl, and we saw what happened with those differing ideologies where the West was free-market capitalist where the consumer was king with a laissez-faire government allowing good and bad ideas to swim or sink on their own merit and communist state run economy of socialist East Germany where non-industry experts were trying to control industries with disastrous results. It was mind blowing when the border opened and just within a mile of crossing the entire landscape looked raped becoming barren and dusty from bad collectivized farming practices and in total disrepair with mostly empty stores full of junk and open prostitution and dirty smelly trabbis everywhere. I felt so bad accepting candy seeing how poor and disheveled they were and could use it more themselves. I guess if you have never been around the world to see first hand the difference between socialist and capitalist countries, the appeal of collectivism "everything is free" and run by the state mantra may sound good.

 

[Dewey]

you have lost power as an individual to decide exactly where that money goes when coerced by the government that can seize your property or remove your freedom and incarcerate you for resisting. While it is certainly the states responsibility to build road infrastructure if the public demands it…

Yes, that’s taxation isn’t it? Didn’t Ben Franklin say “nothing is certain but death and taxes“?

I appreciate public-private partnerships can promote fairness like the Capital Bikeshare equity program. It seems the bicycle industry agrees as the PeopleForBikes foundation have partnered with NACTO and the JPB Foundation to fund similar equity programs across the US through the Better Bikeshare Partnership.

 

[ActionJackson]

Yes, that’s taxation isn’t it? Didn’t Ben Franklin say “nothing is certain but death and taxes“?

I appreciate public-private partnerships can promote fairness like the Capital Bikeshare equity program. It seems the bicycle industry agrees as the PeopleForBikes foundation have partnered with NACTO and the JPB Foundation to fund similar equity programs across the US through the Better Bikeshare Partnership.

I have no qualms about public financing of bike share through grants etc, as long as the people benefiting from them are primarily net taxpayers and not simply wards of the state. It sounds like Capital Bikeshare is doing well in that regards.

 

[Kayakguy]

I have no qualms about public financing of bike share through grants etc, as long as the people benefiting from them are primarily net taxpayers and not simply wards of the state. It sounds like Capital Bikeshare is doing well in that regards.

Maybe if poor people could partake of this bike sharing, they would be able to get to places of work, earn an income, and pay taxes. I realize that some might take unfair advantage of this, but maybe you could suggest a way to make bike sharing punitive for poor people. Not sure how this would be done, though. Some sort of public shaming, perhaps?

 

[JASmith]

Maybe if poor people could partake of this bike sharing, they would be able to get to places of work, earn an income, and pay taxes

Sarcasm doesn't really play well on the internet, so apologies if I'm oblivious. But do you really think that most people that have been unemployed for long periods of time want to work but just don't have a way of getting to a jobsite? Illegal aliens cross rivers and deserts full of dangerous drug dealers often without speaking the native tongue or with the benefit of a high school education and yet manage to find employment opportunities even though its not even legal to employ them.

 

[ActionJackson]

Maybe if poor people could partake of this bike sharing, they would be able to get to places of work, earn an income, and pay taxes. I realize that some might take unfair advantage of this, but maybe you could suggest a way to make bike sharing punitive for poor people. Not sure how this would be done, though. Some sort of public shaming, perhaps?

Sure, I think it should benefit people who go out and get employment. So why not make an “Employment Benefit” wherein people coming off the unemployment roles via a job can get a free 1 year all inclusive public transportation and bikeshare pass valid as long as they’re holding a job. I’d be OK with that, I don’t think many people can argue against it.

 

[JASmith]

Sure, I think it should benefit people who go out and get employment. So why not make an “Employment Benefit” wherein people coming off the unemployment roles via a job can get a free 1 year all inclusive public transportation and bikeshare pass valid as long as they’re holding a job. I’d be OK with that, I don’t think many people can argue against it.

The benefit of being employed is supposed to be that you don't go hungry and have a roof over your head, like in the majority of countries. That was the hilarious problem we had in Texas until just very recently, people were paid $525 from the state and $600 from the feds NOT to work, $1125 a week which is more than many were making at their job with the requirement to show you were at least sending out resumes entirely waived, in spite of the fact that every other business you go into had big hiring signs on the doors and were desperate for employees. A family friend runs a bakery and was forced to let people go when the government forced their doors closed but then upon reopening none of her employees would return to work. Not that anyone can blame them. Who in their right mind would take a pay cut to work 40 hours a week when you can stay at home and watch a Game of Thrones marathon? Yet they had discussions talking about how best to incentivize people to work, as if the solution wasn't obvious. Only in America!

 

[Dewey]

White House staffers get back access to a Capital Bikeshare station (and CaBi+ ebikes) that was removed. The Post reports this station "can be used only by riders with access to the White House grounds. It is not visible in the Capital Bikeshare or Lyft mobile applications. Before it was removed, it got about 70 trips a month." The system map shows at least 8 public stations within 1 block, including along the useful 2-way cycle tracks/PBL's along G St and 15th St. Maybe Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, who has tried out CaBi, will get to try a CaBi+ ebike.
Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/transportation/2021/09/30/trump-capital-bikeshare-white-house/

 

[Dewey]

DC Dept of Transportation about to buy another 1,000 CaBi+ ebikes to expand the number to about half the Capital Bikeshare fleet

 

[Dewey]

Helbiz introduce their new mid-drive to the DC area, taken in Arlington, VA