I think it's far more complicated than this. And this thread is probably not the one to have a wide ranging discussion. But in short Specialized are in trouble. They're not alone. For years the main competition was the rest of the big four Cannondale, Giant and Trek. Post covid the landscape has changed dramatically. It's like cars with EVs becoming a major part of the equation and major brands like Nissan, VW and Toyota feeling the pinch. Now Spesh is being attacked from all sides. With the commuter e bikes it's not just the other lightweight motors Fazua Bosch SX etc it's that the whole commuter market has several new bike brands undercutting them and in a cost of living crises when people are much more cautious about spending a lot of Money. In emtb the competition is ferocious and in road bikes also there are new brands eating away at their once dominant position and the bottom has fallen out of the traditional MTB market, the market Specialized grew from. Trek et all are fighting the same battle for survival. At the lower end of commuter market, new brands mostly hub bikes like Estarli and Eskute in UK, offer bikes that are well made, clean looking and offer good warranty and are cheaper - a friend of mine daughter is in college & they got her an Estarli e28.X for around £1500 and it's a lovely bike & she loves it. In emtbs the best seller right now is that DJI Amflow bike, which, like the market inroads that huge Chinese car companies like BYD are making with similar brilliant tech, well made, cheaper then traditional brands but still premium. And Specialized was already competing with the direct to consumer brands like Canyon, massive supermarket brands like Decathlon and European brands like Cube or Orbea. There's not a huge amount of space for Specialized against all that. Especially internationally. And it's not that these competitors bikes are cheaper but are inferior, far from it, bikes like the Decathlon Van Rysel RCR Pro is the top-range road bike used by the Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale team in the Tour de France - it is so popular it's constantly sold out and undercuts the Spesh Tarmac SL& by a few thousand (£5k to £9k approx) Soon the Chinese giant XDS high end carbon fibre road frames will be everywhere. Largest Chinese high end carbon bike manufacturer, they already make frames for a lot of western bike brands & supposedly 10 million bikes a year, with glitzy high end concept stores in every Chinese city. And the same is now happening in EMTB.
10, 20 years ago Specialized like the others couldn't compete with badly made but very cheap supermarket bikes so they went upmarket. Under this new onslaught they seem to be retreating in the same direction hence the carbon Vado SL, but I think to survive they need to compete with the new brands and make good bikes that are midrange in price especially as that upmarket region is shrinking and there is little brand loyalty just the excitement of the new. In cars Renault are attempting a similar approach with the release of the Renault 5 EV - it is marketed (successfully) on the love of the old petrol Renault 5 (My mum had one) and is selling for a reasonable price in street cool bright colours and from a reliable brand people trust and have a history with. Kind of what BMW did with the Mini. I personally think that's how legacy brands need to operate.
I think Spesh are in panic mode, I agree that if they are killing the Vado SL it's a short sighted decision, unless the bikes are just not selling in enough volume. And who can blame them for panicking. The bike market is volatile and only time will tell who survives and who thrives!
I agree—it’s a highly complex and evolving situation, and your comparison to the automotive industry’s struggle with EVs is quite apt. Specialized, like other legacy brands, is facing a multifaceted challenge post-COVID, which includes increased competition, changing consumer preferences, and economic pressures. The rise of direct-to-consumer brands, the proliferation of well-made and affordable commuter e-bikes, and the emergence of new global players like DJI and XDS are undeniably reshaping the market.
Specialized is undoubtedly feeling the pressure across the board. In the commuter e-bike segment, brands like Estarli, Eskute, and others are offering attractive, feature-rich bikes at significantly lower price points, which appeal to cost-conscious consumers. Your example of the Estarli e28.X illustrates how these brands are winning over customers with a balance of quality, affordability, and aesthetics. In road and mountain biking, brands like Decathlon (Van Rysel) and Cube are undercutting Specialized with bikes that are not just cheaper but also highly competitive in terms of performance.
The challenge for Specialized and other big brands is twofold: maintaining their premium image while also finding ways to compete in the mid-range market without diluting their brand. As you pointed out, the bottom has fallen out of the traditional MTB market, and the upmarket strategy that worked for them a decade ago may not be sustainable anymore. Specialized’s retreat into higher-priced, niche models like the Carbon Vado SL may make sense in the short term, but it risks alienating potential buyers in the increasingly crowded and competitive mid-range segment.
The comparison to Renault’s revival of the 5 EV is interesting. Leveraging brand heritage while offering accessible, stylish, and reliable products could indeed be a way forward. However, unlike the automotive industry, where brand loyalty is often strong, the bike market seems to have much less of it—particularly with the rise of new brands delivering great value and innovation.
Specialized may be in 'panic mode,' but they’re not alone. Trek, Giant, and Cannondale are also fighting similar battles. It will be fascinating to see whether they adapt successfully or whether new players will reshape the industry entirely. As you said, the bike market is volatile, and only time will tell who survives and thrives.
You could easily set it between the default Sport and Turbo (as a new Sport setting). The new Mastermind TCU also allows adjusting the assistance as you ride.
