Merle Nelson
Well-Known Member
- Region
- USA
Oh, great name for those white bikes - ghost bike.
What's holding back the e-bike boom? Research, safety, and bias (article)
- Thread starter Solarcabin
- Start date
Doggyman1202
Active Member
I don't agree with the first part of that sentence, but I do think we're likely to see refurbished e-bikes becoming more commonplace, as e-bike rental fleets are upgraded and current owners seek to upgrade "their ride". While I do think the notion of e-bikes as automobile replacements is mainly a pipe dream, E-bikes are not Fidget Spinners or the Macarena. E-bikes are addictive, and the market for them is here to stay.
m@Robertson
Well-Known Member
- Region
- USA
I commute when I am in the Central Valley (Fresno CA) which is most weekdays, and ride for both utility and recreation (mostly the former) here in the Monterey Bay area when I am home. In Fresno, as always I am pretty much the sole rider regardless of analog or electrical status. I may come across one other cyclist on a given commute but many days I'll see no one else. That area is table-flat and never gets below freeezing. However summers are 110+ and typically over 100 for many days at a time in the summer months. There are a lot of fair weather recreational analog riders there in the evenings, but damn near zero utility riders.
In the Monterey Bay area - having been gone for about 5 years - coming back recently I have seen a big change to cycling here. Cycling for utility was rare but common for recreation. Now, I see ebikes literally everywhere. At least 50% of the cycling community. Some days its almost all of them as I travel along the busier thru-town pathways. Its a mix of the local commuter with their lights, reflective vests and panniers on a skinny-tire ebike (this is an affluent area so lots of manufactured bikes) versus the tourists scuttling around on 20" rented Chinese fat bikes. There are also a couple of touring companies that lead guided groups along the seashore a dozen riders at a time. Locally the city council once resisted ebikes mightily, banning them from the paths which is a near death-sentence for a rider trying to make it on the streets here, but the ordinance was ignored and I don't see anyone complaining anymore.
Its a BIG change. Worth noting again - in this area the streets are relatively narrow with no bike lanes anywhere. On the plus side, speed limits seldom exceed 30 mph and the steep hills let you roll with traffic at least on the downhill. I have been very thankful for my 2wd mid-in-the-back bike as it lets me pedal on dual-PAS and keep up so I'm not at anywhere near as much risk as I would be when I am crawling up a hill on my BBSHD-only cargo longtail.
General observations as a rider who has been commuting in the saddle for a total of around 40 years (took a long break a decade or so back)
1. The predictions of minimal change here in the US are more likely to hold up than the ones expecting big things. This is true for a slew of cultural and political reasons that are unlikely to do more than incrementally slide in the direction of acceptance. But it will be a slow movement.
2. Ebikes in the EU are reaching enormous acceptance not because of regulation - that society regulates everything and ebikes are just part/parcel with a system crafted by a populace more accepting of sovereign rule than we are here. The reason for the acceptance is that bikes are vastly more prevalant there than here, are not considered to be toys and utilitarian cycling is an accepted norm there already and always has been. ebikes just help people do the same thing they are already doing. So they sell a lot of them.
3. Fragmentation of the cycling community will continue to retard ebike acceptance in the US. In particular a desire to keep same within a limited definition due to an individual's idea of what they are willing to accept other people using. Those 20" scramblers for instance... sure nobody pedals. So what? Every one of those riders is potentially a registered voter and a voice at a city council meeting. Let people get into cycling on their terms. All this stuff about not sharing your precious (otherwise empty) cycling lane with a 'motorbike' is shortsighted. For example the ratio of danger for a cyclist vs. a bike with a throttle is what? 100 to one vs. pedestrians with earbuds? Get real about the relative risks and quit being selfish. If you don't, you're helping to perpetuate the world where you continue to be the one weirdo that people will gawk at as they sit in their traffic jam while you ride by.
In the Monterey Bay area - having been gone for about 5 years - coming back recently I have seen a big change to cycling here. Cycling for utility was rare but common for recreation. Now, I see ebikes literally everywhere. At least 50% of the cycling community. Some days its almost all of them as I travel along the busier thru-town pathways. Its a mix of the local commuter with their lights, reflective vests and panniers on a skinny-tire ebike (this is an affluent area so lots of manufactured bikes) versus the tourists scuttling around on 20" rented Chinese fat bikes. There are also a couple of touring companies that lead guided groups along the seashore a dozen riders at a time. Locally the city council once resisted ebikes mightily, banning them from the paths which is a near death-sentence for a rider trying to make it on the streets here, but the ordinance was ignored and I don't see anyone complaining anymore.
Its a BIG change. Worth noting again - in this area the streets are relatively narrow with no bike lanes anywhere. On the plus side, speed limits seldom exceed 30 mph and the steep hills let you roll with traffic at least on the downhill. I have been very thankful for my 2wd mid-in-the-back bike as it lets me pedal on dual-PAS and keep up so I'm not at anywhere near as much risk as I would be when I am crawling up a hill on my BBSHD-only cargo longtail.
General observations as a rider who has been commuting in the saddle for a total of around 40 years (took a long break a decade or so back)
1. The predictions of minimal change here in the US are more likely to hold up than the ones expecting big things. This is true for a slew of cultural and political reasons that are unlikely to do more than incrementally slide in the direction of acceptance. But it will be a slow movement.
2. Ebikes in the EU are reaching enormous acceptance not because of regulation - that society regulates everything and ebikes are just part/parcel with a system crafted by a populace more accepting of sovereign rule than we are here. The reason for the acceptance is that bikes are vastly more prevalant there than here, are not considered to be toys and utilitarian cycling is an accepted norm there already and always has been. ebikes just help people do the same thing they are already doing. So they sell a lot of them.
3. Fragmentation of the cycling community will continue to retard ebike acceptance in the US. In particular a desire to keep same within a limited definition due to an individual's idea of what they are willing to accept other people using. Those 20" scramblers for instance... sure nobody pedals. So what? Every one of those riders is potentially a registered voter and a voice at a city council meeting. Let people get into cycling on their terms. All this stuff about not sharing your precious (otherwise empty) cycling lane with a 'motorbike' is shortsighted. For example the ratio of danger for a cyclist vs. a bike with a throttle is what? 100 to one vs. pedestrians with earbuds? Get real about the relative risks and quit being selfish. If you don't, you're helping to perpetuate the world where you continue to be the one weirdo that people will gawk at as they sit in their traffic jam while you ride by.
Doggyman1202
Active Member
Very thoughtful post. It takes issue with a few things I posted earlier, but your points are well taken.
m@Robertson
Well-Known Member
- Region
- USA
Yeah I know a lot of people disagree *strongly* with some of the things I am saying, but I'm not thinking of cycling as the hobby and sport I spent most of my life dedicated to. I think of it as a gateway drug away from the automobile. In a culture like ours (USA) where the deck is *heavily* stacked against bicycles taking over our utility/transportation world or even becoming a significant part of it, I believe we have to have a big tent. Even if we present a united front, open arms to all etc. etc. its still going to be a hard slog to win over our society, whose culture just doesn't want to buy what we're selling.
Also I wasn't cognizant of going after any one individual's points. I just read thru the thread and in many ways just gave my usual hit parade of pet peeves vis-a-vis cycling vs. ebikers and how we eat our own young.
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mschwett
Well-Known Member
- Region
- USA
you state edge cases and present them as typical. we’re not talking about getting “everyone” onto bikes, just more - a lot more - people.
here’s actual data.
the median one way commute distance in MOST states, including the most populous ones, is 6-8 miles. in california it’s 6.6 miles, but takes 30+ minutes due to traffic etc. people often toss around “average” statistics for stuff like this, which are skewed by a small number of supercommuters, or they use time rather than distance, which is dumb because it’s baking in the problems of everyone driving rather than the opportunities.
many people easily average 15+mph speeds on a fully compliant e-bike. that’s less than half an hour, nearly zero emissions and carbon (assuming you don’t get your calories from red meat), and unlikely to be affected by traffic unless the infrastructure design is truly terrible.
the biggest factors are weather (as you note), perception of safety, and incomplete infrastructure. two of those are fixable!
Art Deco
Well-Known Member
- Region
- USA
- City
- Selinsgrove Pennsylvania
'Blimps' seems right as far as the shape we're in, but real blimps would be a huge improvement over jet aircraft, cars, and pickups from a health and environmental perspective. The fast food nation isn't doing any of us much good.
The table of commute lengths above is a good example of mis-using data. Let's start with the source of the data, then look at what was actually measured. Oh! We can't. Not given. Then, let's think about the fact that an "average" is pretty meaningless, since there are few "average" commutes. It would make much more sense to see the distribution leading to the average, but again, we don't see that data. For instance, are most commutes shorter than the average, which is raised by a small number of long commuters? We don't know.
A more reasonable approach, IMHO, would be to break down populations into sub groups with similar characteristics - commute distance, local environment, public transit options etc.
A more reasonable approach, IMHO, would be to break down populations into sub groups with similar characteristics - commute distance, local environment, public transit options etc.
mschwett
Well-Known Member
- Region
- USA
but the person above me citing anecdotes as evidence that eBikes will never be a meaningful way to get to work is better? lol.
here’s the source: https://www.streetlightdata.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Commutes-Across-America_180201.pdf
the methodology is described, and a fair amount of additional information is presented, although there isn’t a distribution. the table is MEDIAN. not average, for reasons i stated which should be familiar to anyone who studies or designs transportation systems. you can’t design for the edge cases. there are some problems with their methodology - they won’t say how large the dataset is and the distance they use is as the crow flies - but as an order of magnitude, it’s a much more useful starting point than “people have to drive to their job and they distance goes from 30 to over 100 miles….”
penserv
Member
- Region
- Canada
- City
- Calgary, AB
Everyone seems to think you can compare European cities to their North American counterparts, but you can't. In most major European cities, people live in apartments and can walk or ride to most shopping areas for groceries, water, liquor, dining etc. The infrastructure to support pedestrians and cyclists has been completed and you don't have to go more than a few kilometres. In most North American cities, where the majority of people live in single family homes and probably in the suburbs, you absolutely need a car. It can be 5 or 10 miles to a shopping centre, with no bike lanes and lots of pickup trucks on the roads. How many pickup trucks do you see in Barcelona or Paris or Rome? Very few, because they wouldn't fit through some of the narrow streets there. Apart from a few yuppies trying to live in downtown condos who think they're so smug because they can ride or walk everywhere, cycling in North America is just a recreational pastime. Sure, lots of folks commute to work on an Ebike, but you don't see them going home with 2 bags of groceries and a 24 of beer. It's whatever fits in your backpack or saddle bags. And I've never seen anyone carrying a sheet of drywall home on their bike. That's what cars or trucks are for. Ebikes are for fun and they are a lot of fun, especially when you get to pass road bikers on an uphill stretch.
Merle Nelson
Well-Known Member
- Region
- USA
Ahhhh.....one member here has been using a bike instead of a automobile for 2 1/2 years. And I think I've read of several others pushing the envelope of bike use way out.
Art Deco
Well-Known Member
- Region
- USA
- City
- Selinsgrove Pennsylvania
There are several on here that push the envelope of cargo bycycle or cargo trailer pretty hard.
tomjasz
Well-Known Member
- Region
- USA
- City
- Minnesnowta
My friends in NY City have never driven. “A majority in single family homes“? Um, cities like Las Vegas yes but other older US cities have their own apartheid apartments with huge populations stacked up. Yuppies? Smug for rehabilitating the Center city? Nah! It’s a shame you live where folks don’t utilize bikes. I’m seeing more and more bike riders and ebikes at the local in town grocer. Growth has been quite progressive for the last two years.
tomjasz
Well-Known Member
- Region
- USA
- City
- Minnesnowta
Yes, one can't generalize. Even folks who talk about "Europe" are guilty of over-generalizing. Can you really compare Amsterdam to rural Bavaria? In general, European countries are more densely settled than US states, but that's "in general". Just compare the Netherlands to most of Sweden, or central France!
Ravi Kempaiah
Well-Known Member
- Region
- Canada
- City
- Halifax
In my humble opinion, the number one factor that leads to market growth is = infrastructure.
In countries like the Netherlands, where the number of E-bikes sold is 10X more than in the US, the biking infrastructure is truly amazing.
Many of them ride regular bikes and a vast majority of them ride ~350W E-bikes.
In the US, the biking infrastructure is poor and there is a lot of room for improvement. Just yesterday, another man was killed in an E-bike accident.
These kinds of things could be minimized with dedicated and protected bike lanes.
fox5sandiego.com
In countries like the Netherlands, where the number of E-bikes sold is 10X more than in the US, the biking infrastructure is truly amazing.
Many of them ride regular bikes and a vast majority of them ride ~350W E-bikes.
In the US, the biking infrastructure is poor and there is a lot of room for improvement. Just yesterday, another man was killed in an E-bike accident.
These kinds of things could be minimized with dedicated and protected bike lanes.
Man riding on newly purchased e-bike killed in crash
A man died Saturday when he fell from his electric bicycle and was hit by an oncoming vehicle in Solana Beach, according to authorities.
fox5sandiego.com
Merle Nelson
Well-Known Member
- Region
- USA
I live on the coast an hour north of San Francisco. My fantasy/day dream is that we stop making excuses for why it can't be done and create dedicated bike lanes.
One way to do it here would be to put in drain pipes on one or both sides of roadway that account for 100 year flooding or whatever and install paved bike path above that. (Not exactly as simple as that I know but it is doable.)
And the usage those dedicated paths would get would rival any publicly funded rec areas.
One way to do it here would be to put in drain pipes on one or both sides of roadway that account for 100 year flooding or whatever and install paved bike path above that. (Not exactly as simple as that I know but it is doable.)
And the usage those dedicated paths would get would rival any publicly funded rec areas.
Art Deco
Well-Known Member
- Region
- USA
- City
- Selinsgrove Pennsylvania
That could (should) be done by little more than putting drainage pipes in the bottom of a ditch and filling it in with gravel . Add a raised curb between the road and the path and you would have something better than the bike infrastructure around here.
mschwett
Well-Known Member
- Region
- USA
unfortunately, in the urban or semi-urban environments in which most americans travel to and from work, school, shopping, there isn’t unused space on the side of roadways to turn into bike paths / drainage ditches / etc.
there is typically either private property (or property controlled by another public agency) on both sides of the right of way; so the question then becomes how to divide up the width of the right of way, and is there 12 feet to spare for a separated two-way cycle track or two one-way separated bike lanes. of course we know there is - take out a vehicular lane, or the parking on one side, or the median, or shrink the lanes a foot in combination with some of the above, etc…. but the vast majority of people still drive in most places, and they get very uppity at the suggestion that the ENTIRE right of way isn’t for them.
there is typically either private property (or property controlled by another public agency) on both sides of the right of way; so the question then becomes how to divide up the width of the right of way, and is there 12 feet to spare for a separated two-way cycle track or two one-way separated bike lanes. of course we know there is - take out a vehicular lane, or the parking on one side, or the median, or shrink the lanes a foot in combination with some of the above, etc…. but the vast majority of people still drive in most places, and they get very uppity at the suggestion that the ENTIRE right of way isn’t for them.
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