What are your speculations for 2020 Rad Power Bikes?

[Deleted member 4210]

There are at least 3 new models coming from other brands, that you'll like better than this, shortly after Jan 1. They'll have multiple frame sizes, and some very sharp aesthetics. So stay tuned...

 

[Deleted member 4210]

Mike: I have a question for you.

People who buy Rad bikes are typically DIY people. But I know lots of people who would be interested in an e-bike but are not DIY people.

Do you see a hybrid arrangement in which people buy a direct-to-consumer bike and have it shipped to a local shop. The shop assembles and tunes it, for a fee. The shop then becomes the local garage and does seasonal servicing (for a fee, of course).

EVELO does this now. It's hard to envision working well for lower priced ebikes. The local shop would need to get compensated fairly by the OEM, and the fee by a consumer would not be enough. assembling ebikes is not a business sustaining activity, and neither is the tune up aspect. It's my observation People avoid tune ups, and just let their ebikes go until something goes wrong.

And Unless a shop is in a year round geography, where it's warm enough to ebike all year, the overhead of service is extremely costly, and Many shops lay off their mtc staff during winter or only hire people during summer that are ok with very part time work. That is a ton of training (again more cost) and staff turnover, and what kind of talent can be retained for only part time work ? My point here is that strictly doing assembly or tune ups, does not warrant building up staff or even fill in work for existing staff.

Do I see a Rad Power doing this ? no.

It's up to them mostly, but I think they have strategic competitive reasons to not involve local shops. They do some with mobile entities like a Velofix, but those mobile models are not doing well at all financially. In fact Beeline has all but gotten out of that, now only doing software to support businesses who want to do mobile. Beeline was a total bust which I fully expected when they launched.

It's probably going to be a war of sorts for the next 5 to 10 years, between on line offerings of ebikes, and local shops. Most of the on line only guys are struggling mightily as too many have come about, they are too inexperienced business wise, and extremely undercapitalized. Rad has flourished from a sales volume standpoint, but the others are not really growing, and their heavy discounting is only making it one of a survival game to see if they can outlast each other. But too many new on line players keep coming, as barriers to entry are low.

a lot of ebike only firms who do sell through shops, really stink at understanding how shops work, and they are under going massive growing pains, and probably won't survive either. The established players who do understand and have staffed up appropriately to support the LBS's and have the right product mix will likely do the best.
I believe many established LBS's who have had regular bikes only, have shunned a lot of the new ebike OEMs precisely because they know right off the bat, from years of experience, the new firms to this industry just dont have what it takes, so they aren't going waste their time even dealing with OEM incompetence. One brand I know of who did rather poorly with this, tried shops, but just didn't get it. So they have pulled back and attempting on line only. They'll die soon. Either you are set up well for on line or you are set up well for LBS. The infrastructure and support staff are entirely different. Nobody does both well at all.

thus it's hard to envision a hybrid working. Anything is possible, but I think a ebike maker would need to set out from the very beginning to do a hybrid like that, and have a very astute business team that would know how to select and recruit the right shops, and have the right backend support, people and software, and have their ebikes priced appropriately (not too low, not too high) and offer some other unique services besides just the assembly and tune up. I have yet to see any bike or ebike firm have any competent field reps either. I've been in many businesses, and this industry has to be one of the worst for competent field people. That's a big drawback if anyone ever wants to do a hybrid. They'd have to recruit people from outside the industry and train them heavily.

 

[AHicks]

Nicely done Mike.

 

[Greencat]

Anyone know when they introduced new bikes in past? In the new year?

 

[Explorer-1]

....
People who buy Rad bikes are typically DIY people. ....

I think people who buy RadPower bikes are more value shoppers, most bikes are way overpriced, and are changing too fast for many people to want to drop 4-8 Grand on one, especially since in the past they have had relatively small motors and low capacity batteries.

I went with DJ Bikes because they had almost the best batteries and a fair price and a very value oriented bike in general. They were similar but better that Rad in 2017/2018, but then Rad upgraded their models and they were pretty damn close using almost the same frame designs on some models and equivalent components mostly. They are much bigger though,

The other group of people i believe buying Rad, are the locals as they have a very large local e-bike community.

Juiced came out just above Rad in price/component quality and now offer even bigger, but more proprietary batteries designs that have had some growing pains. $2-2.5K range

In 2020 I've see a new set of venders offering mid-drives in the $3-3.5K range. If that market is taking off, and it sure looks like several vendors expect it is , then Rad could start moving up-scale and start offering a bike for that market. I think Juice is more likely to try and nudge up a bit and find some bikes in that Market, but not in 2020 as they seem stretched as it is at the moment. Maybe they will announce but it will be 2021 before they are there.

I'm thinking RadPower is not going to be making any significant announcements in 2020, and look for something in 2021 Spring timeframe.

 

[Deleted member 4210]

Its hard to view Rad ever adding mid drives, which would take a complete frame re-design, but also any brand of mid drive (except bafang) requires certified technicians, and they have no field service firms or shops set up. Definitely not DIY, if people consider Rad a DIY type product. Hub drives are easy peasy, as worst case Rad sends a motor mounted in a rim. Swap tire/tube, Mount on bike, and you are done. The hub drive they use probably costs them $90 at most. Whereas I have seen trek sell a Bosch mid drive 'as a spare' to a customer for around $900. 10 times the price, which is why you want service in the field for mid drives and someone who is highly trained to repair it.

 

[Explorer-1]

Its hard to view Rad ever adding mid drives, which would take a complete frame re-design, but also any brand of mid drive (except bafang) requires certified technicians, and they have no field service firms or shops set up. Definitely not DIY, if people consider Rad a DIY type product. Hub drives are easy peasy, as worst case Rad sends a motor mounted in a rim. Swap tire/tube, Mount on bike, and you are done. The hub drive they use probably costs them $90 at most. Whereas I have seen trek sell a Bosch mid drive 'as a spare' to a customer for around $900. 10 times the price, which is why you want service in the field for mid drives and someone who is highly trained to repair it.

I agree with many of your points. Note I was not saying that Rad would enter mid-drives, just that it was the next emerging area in the 3.-3.5K range(probably 2.5-3.5K is more accurate). I said it was more likely Juiced would enter that market. After reading your points I can see that even they might be reluctant to enter into Mid-drives for a while longer.

Not seeing Rad making any significant announcements this coming year (although they might pretend some minor thing is significant).

 

[phoenixtoohot]

I agree with many of your points. Note I was not saying that Rad would enter mid-drives, just that it was the next emerging area in the 3.-3.5K range(probably 2.5-3.5K is more accurate). I said it was more likely Juiced would enter that market. After reading your points I can see that even they might be reluctant to enter into Mid-drives for a while longer.

Not seeing Rad making any significant announcements this coming year (although they might pretend some minor thing is significant).

"although they might pretend some minor thing is significant"

 

[Browneye]

It's called 'hype'.

It makes people excited and generates interest. The act of doing hype is to 'gush'. LOL

 

[BikeHelmet]

It's called 'hype'.

It makes people excited and generates interest. The act of doing hype is to 'gush'. LOL

Works for Apple, right? New phone design every 3 years, but got to sell the ones in the middle as also being new phones.

I would think turn signals would be the most logical thing to add. Flick a switch and an LED on the back blinks a left facing arrow or a right facing arrow. A slightly higher density / "Long Range" battery back would also make sense.


Okay, here's my prediction - are you ready for it? It may not be 2020... 2021 is also possible, but...

Rad will release the Rad Double - a two seater family-oriented bike that has multiple mount points on the back. When you add child seats, you have a Rad Double Double. It will have a new battery system in the middle that lets you slot in multiple batteries and pulls some of the weight to the center of the bike for safety. This will also make it the longest range bike and good for people planning to bike across the country. Its size would let you carry a lot of cargo. It will have a 1000w motor, but will be governed to less depending upon how many seats are occupied, to comply with local regulations. They will be the first company to have secured conditional power limit exceptions in multiple states/provinces. And the wheels will use a 4in tubeless design.

When Tim Horton's sues them for trademark infringement, it will make the national news and catapult their eBike sales through the stratosphere.

Hey... stop laughing.

 

[Deleted member 4210]

This isn't for Rad, but one brand I know of will be offering large battery capacity (over 19 ah at 48 volts) using the 21700 cell format. I think the physical size will be very interesting. Exciting stuff. (Thought we'd see the use of these format cells sooner and in more brands)