Iran has multiple advantages that we are in a poor position to overcome:
- They have more ballistic missiles left than we have interceptors left.
- Their location makes it inexpensive and low-effort for them to close the Strait of Hormuz.
- Geographically their whole country is a fortress where all plausible invasion routes are over mountain ranges with very thin road networks.
- They have lots of critical targets (mainly fossil fuel infrastructure in states currently allied to us) in easy drone range that we can't adequately protect.
- That same drone package would make any US invasion a slaughter. At least until we come up with effective anti-drone systems, doctrine, and adequate training.
- Iran's strategic objectives are clear and achievable. Ours are not.
