Pre-order and long wait to be the new norm for ebikes.

Got my NCM moscow from seattle the day after I ordered it. German bike, they name all their bikes
after cities. I guess that´s where they thought it would sell? I should have spent the extra $300 for the
moscow+ . The regular has been reliable save for a number of flats due largely to blackberry thorns,
but the upgrades on the plus are well worth it. Hydraulic brakes require less adjustment,( i´m at 2800 mi.)
That & the rest of the upgrades would have been money well spent in terms of component costs & labor.
 
In metro areas, people rely heavily on public transportation to get to work. Even after we are all vaccinated, and the masks come off, I just don't see people going back to public transit in droves. Instead, I see the ebike trend continue to grow, because for alot of us, it is a renewed enthusiasm about biking in general, and that doesn't just go away.

You will also need a vibrant and growing economy, and I just don't see that in the next 12 months.

Lastly, companies have become alot more comfortable with employees working from home, and I don't feel like they are in any rush to bring back workers to the office en masse. In fact, they might even realize savings by closing down some offices to save money.

I don't know. For me, I just think that covid-19 was a game changer, and I do not see going back to the way things used to be, and as such, in parallel, I don't see alternative commuting (ebikes, walking, scooters, motorcycles, etc) being replaced anytime soon.
 
Maybe, if they can still afford to drive a car:rolleyes:
I get in a lot of discussions in places like Nextdoor where people say that the poor and working class need cars in cities. But the poor do not own cars and they shouldn't be forced to drive a car just to get to a job. Not only that, but if a person is car poor, because all their money goes to rent and a car, they don't have the money to support their neighborhood, which brings or reinforces urban decline.
 
I get in a lot of discussions in places like Nextdoor where people say that the poor and working class need cars in cities. But the poor do not own cars and they shouldn't be forced to drive a car just to get to a job. Not only that, but if a person is car poor, because all their money goes to rent and a car, they don't have the money to support their neighborhood, which brings or reinforces urban decline.
Exactly! Why should ¨anyone¨ be forced to drive a car!
 
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Okay, a car is useful for transporting a load of goods that would be inconvenient to carry on a bus,
but the idea of being denied a livelihood for not having one is abhorrent. Automobiles have become
a ball & chain. A new car becomes a financial burden that never ends. Even after paying off the
$30K..+ or -, there´s gas, license fees, insurance, & maintenance that doesn´t go away year after
year. They are not going to be any cheaper just cuz they´re electric. Gridlock without fumes is still gridlock.

The Dutch have literally more bikes than people. They average 760 miles a year on a bike for every
man, woman, & child in the country. They are the healthiest nation in Europe, physically & mentally.
This country faces greater challenges in terms of distance & topography, but they are not insurmountable.
Fossil fuels will remain necessary to some extent for years to come, but we could still get by nicely
by frugally reducing consumption by as much as 80 or 90 percent.

Urban decay is another issue that has to be addressed. Mass transit in itself is not a solution. The
current outbreak, crime, & poverty are amplified by high density populations. People deserve more
space. Meanwhile, small town America is on the skids. Why? Agriculture that once supported these
communities with numerous small farms & businesses has been gobbled up by banks & corporations.
One man with a million dollars of machinery can now farm as much as an army of small farmers.
People have been systematically removed from the land, losing any chance to be self-sufficient &
forced into dependence on corporate feudalism. We should probably fix that!
 
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I don't think ebike sales will revert to pre pandemic levels, here's why:

Ebike sales were already increasing. Ebike sales aren't like a treadmill that was temporarily sped up. The higher sales rate was *brought forward*, IMO.

That said, some of the pandemic specific trends are a mixed, ambiguous bag in terms of their effect on ebike sales. Eg, maybe working from home reduces pressure to procure a new vehicle, ebikes included. Hard to say.

The bit from Giant is interesting. Worth noting a couple things: 1. The EU has strong tariffs, and accounts for the bulk of ebike sales and growth, so growing the factories in Asia may not make sense anyway. 2. Giant produces bikes to a high level of quality, and they may be concerned that they will over-saturate the higher end of the market if they make significant new investments. Less supply means they can command a higher unit price. They may even be announcing their intents OPEC style, to get other top tier manufacturers not to increase supply markedly too.

Perhaps Giant figures that there's little harm in postponing a ramp up of production that costs at least tens of millions of dollars in capital. If the demand is there, they'll make the move 1 year late, with much more assurance that their investment will pay off.
 
Urban decay is another issue that has to be addressed. Mass transit in itself is not a solution. The
current outbreak, crime, & poverty are amplified by high density populations.
This last sentence is not true. Density actually creates economic opportunity, and does not explain the outbreak or crime rates. LA has far more covid than NYC, even accounting for the earlier outbreak in the latter.

Mass transit has an advantage in NYC due to rampant bike theft and lack of secure storage. And NYC has a large share of all public transit in the US. Elsewhere, I think ebikes are a lot more competitive with transit, because they cost far less over several years, and are generally much faster.
 
This last sentence is not true. Density actually creates economic opportunity, and does not explain the outbreak or crime rates. LA has far more covid than NYC, even accounting for the earlier outbreak in the latter.

Mass transit has an advantage in NYC due to rampant bike theft and lack of secure storage. And NYC has a large share of all public transit in the US. Elsewhere, I think ebikes are a lot more competitive with transit, because they cost far less over several years, and are generally much faster.
So you´re saying there just as much crime & disease in rural areas? Sorry, don´t think so. Density?
yeah opportunity for some; if you love the cities go for it. No crime, just rampant bike theft, right.
 
That long wait thing is not across board and it's a temporary thing & while this whole covid thing is not that great there are some good things going on because of it
 
So you´re saying there just as much crime & disease in rural areas? Sorry, don´t think so. Density?
yeah opportunity for some; if you love the cities go for it. No crime, just rampant bike theft, right.
I accept your apology.


City dwellers live longer. People focus on one cause of death because they don't want to question their own version of utopia. Eg suburbanites obsess about crime rates for their children's sake but car crash deaths are a far bigger risk... because they can't bring themselves to question owning a car and driving everywhere. Not that rural life is bad, it's just not without flaws, and I imagine most actual rural people would freely admit to it.

"Life expectancy was inversely related to levels of rurality. In 2005-2009, those in large metropolitan areas had a life expectancy of 79.1 years, compared with 76.9 years in small urban towns and 76.7 years in rural areas."

 
I accept your apology.


City dwellers live longer. People focus on one cause of death because they don't want to question their own version of utopia. Eg suburbanites obsess about crime rates for their children's sake but car crash deaths are a far bigger risk... because they can't bring themselves to question owning a car and driving everywhere. Not that rural life is bad, it's just not without flaws, and I imagine most actual rural people would freely admit to it.

"Life expectancy was inversely related to levels of rurality. In 2005-2009, those in large metropolitan areas had a life expectancy of 79.1 years, compared with 76.9 years in small urban towns and 76.7 years in rural areas."

That probably had nothing to do with the fact that 80% of Americans are now urban/metro dwellers & have
greater access to medicine.right? Your talking about a difference that might easily be the margin
for error. There are studies that say tobacco is good for you too.
Strange, I don´t recall any apology?
 
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That long wait thing is not across board and it's a temporary thing & while this whole covid thing is not that great there are some good things going on because of it
Emissions have been dramatically reduced, but traffic is on the increase again.
 
So you´re saying there just as much crime & disease in rural areas? Sorry, don´t think so. Density?
yeah opportunity for some; if you love the cities go for it. No crime, just rampant bike theft, right.
This is a complicated problem and it is not as simple as you want to make it. Check this out: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/are-europes-cities-better/

Don't forget that most of the rural life that you promote is heavily subsidized by the urban areas- transportation, energy, water, food. Urbanites will pay for modernization of the rural areas- the 80% of the population is heavily supporting the 20% who "prefer a backyard lifestyle". Rural areas need the internet and there are promises to get it to them- and urbanites will pay for it. Most European cities don't subsidize rural lifestyles (but they do subsidize farmers and the US doesn't as much) and so a higher proportion of Europeans live in cities. Let's also not forget that suburbs, areas of low density, have mostly benefited the older whites. In Los Angeles, we had many areas that were called sunset towns- and they had signs up proclaiming they were sunset towns. For those who do not know- sunset towns are areas that will not tolerate persons of color on the street after sundown. Culver City was one such area until the 1970s' federal laws prohibited it. But by then, most of the design of the urban areas (urban is defined by the census as 3,000 or more per square mile, but most urban thinkers prefer 5,000+ based on their comparison research) was set in stone through design, policy, regulation and a desire to keep POC out of their communities. Nonwhites who could not afford a house were left scrambling in hostile inner-cities with little access to jobs, rights, decent housing, or any real protection. So is it fair to say that dense American cities are unsafe because of density or because of racism? Today is MLK day and this is what is on my mind today. But again- European cities are much safer. Tokyo is incredibly dense and yet all of Japan has very few gun homicides.

I heartily encourage people to read Jacobs' urban books - not just her book on the decline of great cities but also her two books on urban economics. She believed, and I think most urban thinkers agree, that we should be pegging density at about 20 people per acre. Anything less and you get decline and anything more and it becomes unmanageable. She ripped Los Angeles because of our sprawl and everything she warned us came true. A lot of NYC is less than 5,000/sq mile population and in those areas they have problems. Much of Los Angeles is less than 5,000/sq mile and there are where problems are. She side steps most of the criticism by focusing on 4 topics, one of which is walkability (the others is density, eyes on the ground and I forget the last one).

Where are the least problems? Areas built during the 1930s depression area. They had to build for a growing population, and they built it just dense enough to save money and it was a perfect level. These are typically the most expensive areas to live today because of their high desirability- the right level of density, walkability, etc.

Where are the biggest problems: locations where older white NIMBYs have locked in their large backyards and have no problem denying housing for everyone else. This is especially true in Los Angeles. Most single family houses are white owned. Our homeless problem is directly tied to a refusal to eliminate the R1 zoning that effectively prohibits anything but single family homes to be built in 85% of Los Angeles. To make it worse, we have dedicated more than 25% of the built environment to cars. And car ownership is probably one of the biggest socialist programs the US has, that benefits the whites in suburbia the most.

Centuries ago density was bad- it was filthy and we didn't understand why and how to avoid the disease that came with density. After the depression it became a self-fulfilling prophecy and we designed cities with the mistaken idea that density was bad. Modernism of the 1950s was as time of massive growth and by design the urban areas tied sprawl and the car into a destructive force that is only today getting reimagined.

In Los Angeles they destroyed thriving black neighborhoods like South Central and put a highway down the middle of it, ripping the heart out of it (thankfully there is a movement to eliminate highways and those that have been taken out have largely shown positive community benefits.

One last point: I am at work and they block certain sites. I will bet this list has European cities rated safer than most American cities. Can someone confirm? https://safecities.economist.com/wp...NG-NEC-Safe-Cities-2019-270x210-19-screen.pdf
 
This is a complicated problem and it is not as simple as you want to make it. Check this out: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/are-europes-cities-better/

Don't forget that most of the rural life that you promote is heavily subsidized by the urban areas- transportation, energy, water, food. Urbanites will pay for modernization of the rural areas- the 80% of the population is heavily supporting the 20% who "prefer a backyard lifestyle". Rural areas need the internet and there are promises to get it to them- and urbanites will pay for it. Most European cities don't subsidize rural lifestyles (but they do subsidize farmers and the US doesn't as much) and so a higher proportion of Europeans live in cities. Let's also not forget that suburbs, areas of low density, have mostly benefited the older whites. In Los Angeles, we had many areas that were called sunset towns- and they had signs up proclaiming they were sunset towns. For those who do not know- sunset towns are areas that will not tolerate persons of color on the street after sundown. Culver City was one such area until the 1970s' federal laws prohibited it. But by then, most of the design of the urban areas (urban is defined by the census as 3,000 or more per square mile, but most urban thinkers prefer 5,000+ based on their comparison research) was set in stone through design, policy, regulation and a desire to keep POC out of their communities. Nonwhites who could not afford a house were left scrambling in hostile inner-cities with little access to jobs, rights, decent housing, or any real protection. So is it fair to say that dense American cities are unsafe because of density or because of racism? Today is MLK day and this is what is on my mind today. But again- European cities are much safer. Tokyo is incredibly dense and yet all of Japan has very few gun homicides.

I heartily encourage people to read Jacobs' urban books - not just her book on the decline of great cities but also her two books on urban economics. She believed, and I think most urban thinkers agree, that we should be pegging density at about 20 people per acre. Anything less and you get decline and anything more and it becomes unmanageable. She ripped Los Angeles because of our sprawl and everything she warned us came true. A lot of NYC is less than 5,000/sq mile population and in those areas they have problems. Much of Los Angeles is less than 5,000/sq mile and there are where problems are. She side steps most of the criticism by focusing on 4 topics, one of which is walkability (the others is density, eyes on the ground and I forget the last one).

Where are the least problems? Areas built during the 1930s depression area. They had to build for a growing population, and they built it just dense enough to save money and it was a perfect level. These are typically the most expensive areas to live today because of their high desirability- the right level of density, walkability, etc.

Where are the biggest problems: locations where older white NIMBYs have locked in their large backyards and have no problem denying housing for everyone else. This is especially true in Los Angeles. Most single family houses are white owned. Our homeless problem is directly tied to a refusal to eliminate the R1 zoning that effectively prohibits anything but single family homes to be built in 85% of Los Angeles. To make it worse, we have dedicated more than 25% of the built environment to cars. And car ownership is probably one of the biggest socialist programs the US has, that benefits the whites in suburbia the most.

Centuries ago density was bad- it was filthy and we didn't understand why and how to avoid the disease that came with density. After the depression it became a self-fulfilling prophecy and we designed cities with the mistaken idea that density was bad. Modernism of the 1950s was as time of massive growth and by design the urban areas tied sprawl and the car into a destructive force that is only today getting reimagined.

In Los Angeles they destroyed thriving black neighborhoods like South Central and put a highway down the middle of it, ripping the heart out of it (thankfully there is a movement to eliminate highways and those that have been taken out have largely shown positive community benefits.

One last point: I am at work and they block certain sites. I will bet this list has European cities rated safer than most American cities. Can someone confirm? https://safecities.economist.com/wp...NG-NEC-Safe-Cities-2019-270x210-19-screen.pdf
Don´t you forget that most urban areas are nearly totally dependant on rural agriculture. Truth does not
require so many words.
 
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One last point: I am at work and they block certain sites. I will bet this list has European cities rated safer than most American cities. Can someone confirm? https://safecities.economist.com/wp...NG-NEC-Safe-Cities-2019-270x210-19-screen.pdf
Screenshot_20210119_070917.jpg
 
Depends on what you are looking for.

I quick look and both Biktrix and Ride1Up have in-stock bikes. Lectric has the black XP in stock.

And then if you go to your LBS, the high-end bikes are usually available.
I agree, depends on what bike the shopper is looking for and I’ll also add it matters what continent the customer is located.

North America seems to have longer lead times by about 3-6 months but not at all price points.
 
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