It’s 2025 what does your ebike look like?

[Ken M]

I could envision a day when ebike motor manufacturers take a hint from motorcycles and make the motor part of the appeal of the ebike instead of trying to integrate it so the bike looks traditional.

Compare modern motorcyles with those from the 70's and 80's and everything is about the visual coolness showcasing the motor. Some hyper performance cars have clear covers to reveal the motor.

Right now the hot fad is to integrate the motor and battery so the bike looks "traditional" .... probably will fad away when cosmetically cool motors are produced for ebikes.

 

[Chancelucky2]

Chancelucky2, good thinking. I have a few comments.

So has the lead/acid battery. 170 yrs almost. Unfortunately, it would seem that their respective characteristics misalign in a way, for bike purposes. Maybe that can be worked around, though.

I would expect faster and more dramatic changes with e-bikes than we've seen with traditional bikes. I do think the e-bike calls into question a lot of assumptions we've made about bike design so far. The first cars looked a lot like wagons and buggies. Over time, they evolved into something different.


Why do you think that it's because of the battery? All those things are going everywhere now, probably most people have some of them in the shower. But it doesn't matter, it just is the case that these things are appearing. We should expect them to all appear on humans just a little bit later. The bike will "know" how you feel and take the necesary steps to measure and pace your ride to where you're allowed to go, including going nowhere if you're drunk or otherwise "under the weather" sufficiently.

I don't disagree. You don't need a big battery to do a lot of this stuff.


Yep, major hurdle to get over, for some needs. Most days my 17Ah battery is more than enough for me, but I would like 70Ah however it could be achieved (even now if I had lots of dough to spare I'd have 3 extras "just in case" and for sometimes taking a long trip).

I keep thinking that there's got to be a better way to do it than adding 20 pounds to your bike. My current bike has a range of about 50 miles and 95% or more of the time, it's enough. 99% of the time, I'd be able to get by just fine if I could recharge in an hour or less. In the meantime, the Yamaha bikes for 2020, the ypj series, seem to be claiming pretty amazing ranges (160 miles in eco plus and 60 miles in their version of turbo) with a single 500 amp hour battery. Hard to say how that's being calculated. 160 miles is further than I'd actually want to ride in a day and not sure how "optimal" their conditions are, but they do explain how they do their estimates.

That's an interesting angle to explore. My 17Ah charges a pretty good amount in an hour. What if I carried 4 of them stopped to charge for an hour as they get to 30%? I should time a charge for 1 hr to see where that leaves it.
Anyway, thinking around the problem might be surprising.

one of the issues seems to be that really fast charging eats into the number of cycles you'll get out of your battery.

 

[Cyklefanatic]

Companies like Canyon and Santa Cruz are making carbon frames that test far stronger than the aluminum counterparts. Carbon is almost always utilized for it's light weight but if a smart ebike frame manufacture came along and added 500-1000 grams of arimid fiber into a layer of carbon I think a vastly superior frame could be made that would never fail under typical street use. Too many people are stuck thinking a carbon frame must be as light as humanly possible for racing.

As for suspensions on street bikes I know schwalbe did a study on the impact of wider tires and found that the active suspension only improve shock dampening like 7% more. I think that was with only 2" wide tires so what is the results with something like Moto X at 2.4" or 2.8" or fat bike tires from 3" to 4" wide. Everyone in marketing at the bike companies are going to tell you that you need a suspension to be comfortable but in reality suspensions were put on mtn bikes to keep the tires in contact with the ground (not really about rider comfort as so many like to think). It's all but common sense that if non suspension bike was faster than a full suspension bike in off road races it's unlikely you would see suspensions on those bikes.

I have Moto X 2.4s on my commute ebike with a Magura air front fork and I honestly can't tell the difference when I lock the fork out when it comes to comfort but I feel the bike handles better with it locked out so that's the way I ride it 99% of the time and I'm 58.

Wow you go right by that 7% improvement like it’s nothing. In most instances engineers are fighting for improvements of 1-2%! 7% is a huge improvement. If schwalbe is correct then I can remove the suspension from my motorcycle because it has 4” wide tires at 30PSI. When you hit the sharp edge of a pothole or curb at speed the suspension protects your rims as well as your body. Currently bike suspensions on street bikes are not very compliant. A full hydraulic suspension can react to both small and large bumps quickly.

 

[trainman]

Being an older rider (74) I see the older population riding more and the ebikes of the future for that age group will be ebikes like the Rad Runner, Rad Mini's, Super 73 scooter styles. These may even trickle down to the younger ages for there smaller size and ease of use. For the city bicycle riders it will probably become somewhat mandatory just by the economics of the situations that are ahead of us.

 

[kmccune]

Enough everyone about regulations, licensing and top speed. Please limit comments to hardware and design.
Thanks everyone for the comments. It looks like three types of ebikes are in order for 2025.
Type one, low cost for casual occasional riders.
Type two, light weight simpler ebikes for easy car loading and general simplicity.
Lastly an all out technology showcase with a high top speed and some type of licensing.
My original post below,
Let’s imagine what the future holds for a street/ commuter ebike.
By 2025 I see ebikes becoming more like small quiet practical motorbikes.
120 mile range 6 pound batteries, 10 year life at 90% capacity.
Derailleurs disappear and gearbox’s are built into the mid motor. More reliable and much less maintenance. 5 speeds 500% range that uses the motor power after shifts to maintain a desired cadence. Auto shifting with manual override.
All bikes have regen and rear brakes disappear. Applying the rear brake lever turns up the regen. This also makes flat repair easier and reduces unsprung weight.
The dashboard is all in your cellphone that’s mounted on the bars, the bike charges the phone. The phone connects to a rear view camera instead of using mirrors.
EBikes get heavier because they can. They include lights, brake lights, A built in trunk bag/panniers, steering locks or cafe locks, good fenders, electric locks controlled by your phone. The battery key controls all the security locks.
Due to higher speeds full suspension , 3 inches in front, 2 in the rear. 26” front wheel, 24” rear wheels, 2.25” wide. Longer wheelbase mostly added between the pedals and rear axle for stability. Ride improves due to suspension and that offsets the smaller wheels.
Single arm rear swing arm. The rear Wheel unbolts like a car 3 or 4 bolts attached to a hub. Chains are gone either Shaft drive or gates belt. The shaft drive stays in place when the wheel is removed.
Regulations are changed to allow a pedelec 30 mph top speed. Riders are licensed but the bikes are not. Licensing is mainly common sense safety training. Rather than a hard speed limit the motor will decrease assist slowly the faster you go. This would make it feel more natural.
What did I miss?

I like the part about the integral tran + motor, that is almost axiomatic,I suppose a stiff"regen" could take the place of rear brakes, belt drive( lower cost versions may become common place( the rider is going to change also. more phones will become virtually undetectable,GPS and 911 will be basically mandatory, one thing will stay the same there will be a bike.

 

[kmccune]

I don't think most ebikes will be radically different in 5 years. Battery and motors will be more efficient. I think we'll see more high end, very lightweight road and gravel bikes with drop bars that are powered by very small, almost undetectable hub and mid drive motors.

I personally wouldn't ever buy an ebike that relies on a cellphone to operate. I enjoy riding many places in the mountains where there is no cellphone coverage. Most functions will work offline I'm sure, but I like to ride with the phone off and in the pannier. I enjoy the ride far more when I'm offline! I'm sure ebike companies will want smartphones to control their bikes, It's much cheaper for them to develope an app to cover all and rely on the end user to spend a grand plus every year or two on a new operating system.

There's more regulation coming, it's already started. I really liked flying under the radar the last five years. Class 2 and 3 will be regulated more. At a recent meeting with lawmakers we were asked if we would object to having a prominent class 1 license sticker to ride the paths and trails.

Prices now, for the most part, are lower. There will always be the super high end bikes, but a $1500 bike today was $2000+ a few years ago. I expect that trend to continue as long as sales increase. There's already some standardization across brands. That will help drive prices down.

The future looks bright☀

There will be a funny curve on bike costs as income vs bike cost( inflation)