I Fear We Could Be Near Prolonged Massive Disruption in Trade With Mainland China

reed scott

Well-Known Member
I've alluded to this a few times in other threads. Our relationship with China continues to degrade. Many will surely want to go into the politics of it all but really I don't care. If I was presently wanting to get into e-biking I'd stick to Giant ( Taiwan ) or .... yeah, Or what? We've all been waiting for this Covid mess to be over so international trade could get back to normal but I don't think it will for a long time. Perhaps the Europeans will continue to do normal business with China and ordering bikes from them will be an option. An expensive option however.

 
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Reed relationship with China is not about Ebikes.

it's about The Dollar Tree and Dollar Rama.
 
Reed relationship with China is not about Ebikes.

it's about The Dollar Tree and Dollar Rama.
You forgot Walmart. China has become the manufacturing center for the entire world. Soon they will be the predominant chip maker. They manufacture thousands of intricate parts for everything from vehicles to computers to household appliances. They get nasty enough in their retribution for our Commerce Department black listing their companies ( no doubt owned and controlled by the scions of CCP military bigwigs ) and yes, the drying up of manufactured parts, will trickle down to bicycles. Go by your local Ford or Chevy or Dodge car lot and look behind the front row of offerings. Gol EE! Empty asphalt where once were parked rows of new vehicles. That's just the chip shortage.
 
I guess I'm glad I bought most of the tech I should need for a long time during the pando.

I'm hoping a lot of my e-junk will last for many years. My phone is 3 years old, cheapest Galaxy available, and I hope it will last another three. I don't want to buy another laptop or tablet for a long time. I actually have a Windows palmtop that I almost never use... bad keyboard, and I can't keep up with the virus protection for the OS. My little chromebook still runs... I could probably go 5 or 10 years if I had to without buying more junk.

I hope I'll never have to buy another car... the e-bike should help a bit with that, even if it's just a few miles here or there.

Ah, well... at least Motobecane frames are made in Taiwan. Though that is probably the last part of my bike that will need to be replaced!
 
I've alluded to this a few times in other threads. Our relationship with China continues to degrade. Many will surely want to go into the politics of it all but really I don't care. If I was presently wanting to get into e-biking I'd stick to Giant ( Taiwan ) or .... yeah, Or what? We've all been waiting for this Covid mess to be over so international trade could get back to normal but I don't think it will for a long time. Perhaps the Europeans will continue to do normal business with China and ordering bikes from them will be an option. An expensive option however.

I think you are correct. Pedego moved its operations to Taiwan more than a year ago.
 
I've alluded to this a few times in other threads. Our relationship with China continues to degrade. Many will surely want to go into the politics of it all but really I don't care. If I was presently wanting to get into e-biking I'd stick to Giant ( Taiwan ) or .... yeah, Or what? We've all been waiting for this Covid mess to be over so international trade could get back to normal but I don't think it will for a long time. Perhaps the Europeans will continue to do normal business with China and ordering bikes from them will be an option. An expensive option however.

It won’t have long term lasting impact, just quarreling and posturing. China eventually has to restore normal if not vigorous exports to America because it’s the bulwark for their industrial export economy. America has very little local manufacturing capacity so it also relies on China. Accordingly China is also dependent on a vibrant American economy and low inflation. The situation with Europe is different because they manufacture a lot of durable goods and consumer items themselves, ditto Japan.

On the other hand the entire biking industry is at massive risk due to the high concentration of manufacturing in Taiwan at the moment. China is on a big push to get Taiwan into its fold. They’ll do anything to do so. Actually that’s their number one aspiration at the moment - domination of the South China Sea and what they see is the repatriation of Taiwan. Huge costs to be paid there. Few in the bicycle industry there have begun to re-distribute manufacturing capacity elsewhere. Perhaps because like the rest of Asia it is mostly a network of local cottage businesses. Unlike the semiconductor manufacturing springing up in other regions.

Sadly Uncle Joe Biden is a pushover wussy for the Chinese. He’ll wind up throwing Taiwan under the bus, because there are no other options really with his soft touch policies. That’s why the Chinese are accelerating their push. Hopefully it gets resolved without major regional escalation.
 
The USA did not blacklist chinese products sold at Walmart. They went after some IT firms. China is not going to stop shipping TV's, appliances, and auto parts to the USA. They will probably block some US consulting outfits. It's all posturing.
 
This is too complex and deep a topic for an online forum. Honestly when budget deficits and "trade deficits" get discussed you need to go way too deep in the weeds of macroeconomics to actually figure anything out. And there is a reason economics is known as the dismal science.

I put "trade deficits" in quotes because when you run the numbers, you find the world runs a "trade deficit" with itself. How is that even possible? My own guess is that we are too busy counting the angels on the head of a pin to actually figure out anything practical.

Also, about the United States "not manufacturing anything anymore." I checked with the National Association of Manufacturers and this was very easy to find:

Manufacturers in the United States account for 11.39% of the total output in the economy, employing 8.51% of the workforce. Total output from manufacturing was $2,334.60 billion in 2018. In addition, there were an average of 12.8 million manufacturing employees in the United States in 2018, with an average annual compensation of $84,832.13 in 2017.

By way of comparison, Japan had a manufacturing output of $1,027.19 billion in 2018. China had a manufacturing output of $3,868.48 billion in 2018.
 
What actually worries me the most from an ebike standpoint is China’s lithium holdings (that they aren’t really mining yet) in Afghanistan. Wonder how the U.S. withdrawal will affect their plans.
 
What actually worries me the most from an ebike standpoint is China’s lithium holdings (that they aren’t really mining yet) in Afghanistan. Wonder how the U.S. withdrawal will affect their plans.
Lithium is extremely abundant in our lithosphere and there are lots of good sources (particularly in Australia, Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) that aren't under Chinese control.

They are actually considering "mining" lithium from geothermal plants in California. The geothermal plants on the Salton Sea by themselves could meet one quarter of current world demand.
 
To add a piece to this mess, I heard recently that Home Depot chartered their own container ship to have more say when it comes to their stuff coming out of China and into ports here stateside.

Home Depot is run by some pretty sharp management. The fact they chartered their own boat makes me wonder what they hope to avoid while moving their freight through normal channels. Being slightly suspicious by nature, the first thought that comes to my mind is corruption......
 
I've alluded to this a few times in other threads. Our relationship with China continues to degrade. Many will surely want to go into the politics of it all but really I don't care. If I was presently wanting to get into e-biking I'd stick to Giant ( Taiwan ) or .... yeah, Or what? We've all been waiting for this Covid mess to be over so international trade could get back to normal but I don't think it will for a long time. Perhaps the Europeans will continue to do normal business with China and ordering bikes from them will be an option. An expensive option however.

Your fears are not unfounded.
 
I would see this as an opportunity for companies in the US and Europe to start actually becoming competitive and producing goods again and reducing their massive trade deficit! 👍

If that means that products like an e-bike or iPhone are slightly more expensive than having effective slave labor in a Foxconn or similar mega factory that are locked into the factory six days a week and had to put up additional suicide nets because of increasing suicide rates due to poor labor conditions (that actually happened), I'm fine with that.

There's also this false assumption that trade always universally improves prosperity for a nation, but that's actually not true when huge trade disparities exist. If a country has a massive trade deficit with a particular trade partner (like US and China, the world's largest imbalance to date and primary reason for the explosion of the Chinese economy), then it means that there is a great net cashflow of money leaving the economy suffering the deficit. So if the country under great deficit even ceases trade entirely with that partner then the net cashflow goes from negative (money leaving the economy) to zero, a net gain in wealth. While that seems like the obvious solution on a macro level, leaving a vacuum that would then be filled by either other trade partners with which a more fair and reasonable trade balance exists or domestic production, there can be specific individuals that still make a lot of money trading with China that can lose out, and they tend to lobby the government to protect their individual interests at the expensive of the whole.
Lithium is extremely abundant in our lithosphere and there are lots of good sources (particularly in Australia, Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) that aren't under Chinese control.
China was trying to create a global monopoly like they already have for many other natural resources such as rear earth metals, but ultimately failed to secure South America's "lithium triangle" in spite of their best efforts. Remember, it doesn't matter if a country has theoretical lithium reserves if another has already obtained a monopoly, as they can do what China has done before with aluminum for example. Because most countries are capitalist, they rely on private investors to raise capital to start a business such as a mine that have to promise a return on investment in a certain amount of time or else sink. If a country as large as China has established a monopoly, merely threatening to flood that particular market with product for a period of time with the commodity, or worse actually doing so, can be enough to sink any new venture. Governments can put in trade embargoes or tariffs to try and stop this practice, but China nearly got away with it again in spite of such efforts until one million metric tons of aluminum stockpiles owned by the CCP's Deputy Secretary were discovered by aerial drones stockpiled under tarps in the middle of the Mexican desert, being dumped in the US via Mexico as a proxy to bypass tariffs and sink the US aluminum industry.
 
I think you are correct. Pedego moved its operations to Taiwan more than a year ago.
Here's an article about Pedego manufacturing moved to Vietnam.
 
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Thanks. I knew they moved and thought I read it was Taiwan. I believe some of their Dapu products, designed in Japan, are manufactured in Taiwan. Things change so fast though.👍
 
To add a piece to this mess, I heard recently that Home Depot chartered their own container ship to have more say when it comes to their stuff coming out of China and into ports here stateside.

Home Depot is run by some pretty sharp management. The fact they chartered their own boat makes me wonder what they hope to avoid while moving their freight through normal channels. Being slightly suspicious by nature, the first thought that comes to my mind is corruption......
Even though HD has high prices, their return policies are among the best, Lowes has screwed me over too many times, if HD was closer to me Lowes would get very little of my business. I busted a cheap Lowes vise( by hand making a poker) and Lowes wouldn't replace it On the other hand US manufacturing of $2+Trillion does not sound that bad,Lowes doesn't seem to be the 'goodguy" they once where at least they do not sale no warranty Ebikes.
 
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