Future Innovation, Where Are We Going

[Djangodog]

Like anything restricted by class constraints, (speed, power, etc.), we are severely limited in how we can evolve. We can never become fast or powerful.

People race anything, so I can’t say that there will never be competitions. Maybe someone has some insight as to how that might look.

I have only been riding an e-bike for a few months. From my narrow perspective, I see advancements being things like e-bike specific drivetrains, better batteries, better software, lighter weight, and improved handling.

Being that e-bikes are used for so many different purposes and that there are three different classes already, the needs and wants are not going to be a one size fits all. It might be nice to know how the e-cycling community envisions the future.

Thank you in advance for your input.

 

[jabberwocky]

I think we will see lots of advancement in the lower power integrated ebikes that look like normal bikes (lighter weight and more power/range while still looking and feeling very bike-like). Defintiely advancements in battery tech, ever increasing capacity becoming the new standard (already happening in the eMTB world). I see a wildly expanded light motorcycle market (everything from slightly faster throttle ebikes up to heavy bikes that can cruise at 60+mph). I think a lot of the companies selling those bikes will go legit and get them a VIN and equipment to let them be registered as a moped/motorcycle for legal road use.

I think the legal environment will continue to expand access, but I do think we are building towards a period of backlash from legacy usergroups as more and more ebikes flood the trails and bike lanes, especially ones that move way faster than what was sold to those user groups when ebike access was initially argued for. Will be interesting to see how ebike advocacy groups navigate that, as well as mfgs and sellers of those bikes.

My personal wishlist is mainly to see eMTB access increase. Trails around me are pretty scattered (I can ride my class 1 on most of the county/regional trails in VA and MD, but state parks are largely still off limits, as is almost all nationally managed recreation areas like the GW National Forest near me).

 

[Mr. Coffee]

All other things being equal, I think the biggest improvement(s) will be in making e-bikes lighter. I'd happily pay for a new e-bike that weighed 10-20 kg less than my current ride. Specialized seems to have figured this out and that is why their bikes are so very popular.

I also think that you could make a pretty obscene fortune if you designed, patented, and built a suspension fork with usable eyelets for various kinds of front racks and cages.

Thru axles are far better than QR skewers and should become standard on e-bikes, front and rear.

I've noticed that mechanical disk brake technology has dramatically improved in the last few years, and there are a few hybrid hydraulic/mechanical brake systems that look really promising as well.

 

[Solarcabin]

I think we will see more driveshaft ebikes eliminating the chain and gears which are a weak point especially on mid drive ebikes.

I was looking at this one the other day:

An electric bicycle with a driveshaft? Honbike launches futuristic-looking Japanese folding e-bike for US/EU

The multiple award-winning Honbike is just about as steep of a departure from typical electric bicycles as I can find. Having tested hundreds of different e-bikes, the Honbike is unique in so many different ways that it marks a refreshing new entry to the market. Now launching on Indiegogo, we...

electrek.co

Ebikes will likely get more safety features like EVs with maybe front cameras to slow the ebike down before collision though I would not trust them.

The biggest changes will probably be in laws and personally I think Ebikes should not be rode by kids under 16 and faster ebikes are for adults only with training.

The ebike class rating and motor rating is worthless IMO and we should go to a speed limit system used for any other vehicles and for bike paths and roads.

Futility of Motor Power Ratings

"There's no such thing as a rated watt!" Read here for why we don't advertise a simple power rating for the motors we sell. Also, have a look at our Youtube video where Justin talks about the power to propel bicycles in <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ALde6zhLPs0">"School of Watts"</a>.

ebikes.ca

I would hope batteries keep improving and we can eliminate Ebike battery fires completely and that will probably require all Ebike batteries to have a fire and UL rating.

What’s causing all the ebike and escooter battery fires?

What’s causing all the ebike and escooter battery fires? https://thenextweb.com/news/the-cause-of-lithium-ion-battery-fires-ebikes-escooters-new-york poor design assembly errors electrical shorting use of the wrong charger overcharging A damaged battery management system (BMS) causes...

electricbikereview.com

I hope that businesses will see the value of adding bike racks with Ebike charging to their stores as more and more people will be choosing an ebike as their primary or secondary mode of transportation. California just announcd they will stop selling gas vehicles by 2035 and that will go national.

Good post Djangodog!

 

[FrankR]

Sure hope we see weight and battery improvements. Significant ones.

 

[jabberwocky]

For component upgrades, I think the major advancement is going to be 1: middrives with gearboxes, and 2: more robust and less expensive geared rear hubs. Geared hubs have always been a niche item, and limited at the high end of the bike market by the increased drivetrain resistance, but they make a lot of sense for ebikes. And adding some sort of gearbox to a middrive motor makes sense too; even if it costs more, it lets the mfg ditch all the shifty bits and run a stronger singlespeed chain.

I'm guessing Shimano will be first out the gate with a gearbox mid drive. They already make geared hubs and have extensive experience with bike drivetrains. I'd be amazed if they don't have a team working on it.

 

[Mr. Coffee]

Some stuff that is outside the box and might be considered heresy here.

The average motor vehicle trip in the States is around 6 miles (10km). An efficient mid-drive e-bike with a 700wh to 1000wh battery is probably good for ten times that distance, possibly more depending on the local terrain and weather. My observation of other people I know with e-bikes (outside of this community) is that they rarely ride more than about a dozen miles. So from both a practical observation of how most people use e-bikes and what they are used for maybe those large batteries aren't cost efficient.

Maybe the real sweet spot is going for a smaller, less expensive battery that charges really fast, and shoot for a range of about twenty miles between charges.

 

[jabberwocky]

Yeah, for all the "ebikes need to go 30mph for 50 miles to be useful!" people, the bestselling brand in the US is Rad, who only makes class 2 hub motor utilitarian bikes with good but not exceptional range. They've built a successful company by understanding that a huge chunk of the market isn't looking for a super fast bike, they want a reasonably priced one that is good for urban commuting and errand running, and primarily focusing on utility instead of power and speed.

 

[teskow]

For component upgrades, I think the major advancement is going to be 1: middrives with gearboxes, and 2: more robust and less expensive geared rear hubs. Geared hubs have always been a niche item, and limited at the high end of the bike market by the increased drivetrain resistance, but they make a lot of sense for ebikes. And adding some sort of gearbox to a middrive motor makes sense too; even if it costs more, it lets the mfg ditch all the shifty bits and run a stronger singlespeed chain.

I'm guessing Shimano will be first out the gate with a gearbox mid drive. They already make geared hubs and have extensive experience with bike drivetrains. I'd be amazed if they don't have a team working on it.

I totally agree on mid-drives with a gearbox. Motorcycles are there why not bicycles. I just spent a month in Europe and observed tons of bikes with hub shifters and lots with belt drives. The amount of bicycles there is mind bogling.

 

[Solarcabin]

I think the future will be Ebike paragliders!

Hey, it could happen!

 

[retiredNH]

I totally agree on mid-drives with a gearbox. Motorcycles are there why not bicycles. I just spent a month in Europe and observed tons of bikes with hub shifters and lots with belt drives. The amount of bicycles there is mind bogling.

I thought we already had mid drives with gearboxes. Enviolo et al? Derailleurs and rear sprockets? Aren't the latter just an open form of gearing, an "open" gearbox? And a whole lot lighter and cheaper to make than a true gearbox.

 

[fooferdoggie]

I thought we already had mid drives with gearboxes. Enviolo et al? Derailleurs and rear sprockets? Aren't the latter just an open form of gearing, an "open" gearbox? And a whole lot lighter and cheaper to make than a true gearbox.

if it was all in the mid drive then you only need a single speed setup. that would give a lot mroe life to a chain.

 

[Djangodog]

if it was all in the mid drive then you only need a single speed setup. that would give a lot mroe life to a chain.

And the single speed chain, or belt could be more substantial than the small and narrow chain used on derailleur drivetrains. This would also apply to internal hub gearing.

Gearboxes tend to be complex and rely on tight tolerances, but if Sturmey-Archer could fit a three speed into a rear hub over 100 years ago, I would expect that it could be worked out. The bottom bracket area is pretty roomy.

 

[jabberwocky]

I mean a shiftable gearbox integrated into the mid drive motor unit, controlled on the handlebar like a derailleur setup. Seems like a logical next step. You already have the motor and reduction gearing in there, why not take some of the tech from an internal geared hub and put it in there as well? You really only need 8-10 widely spread speeds on a mid drive. Advantages are it lets you run any rear hub/brake setup you want, no need for a cassette or derailleurs, with a straight chainline you can run a heavy singlespeed/bmx chain or belt drive, low/no maintenance. On eMTBs, getting rid of the (easily damaged) rear derailleur would be great. Gearboxes tend to hold up better to bashing through gears under power too.

To be fair, I don't know that it would take over the market; I'm sure derailleurs and cassettes will be around for a very long time. But I think the first company that gets it right is going to sell a lot of them.

 

[Dewey]

I hope for better warranties. I like V-Volt's 3-year warranty term and the crash replacement sliding discount, but it's a pity it's not transferable during the warranty period as Serial 1's warranty is. It brings more peace of mind when buying a used e-bike to know the original warranty will still apply. I hope more brands will do this to support a more robust used e-bike market in the US.

 

[BlackHand]

I think the future will be Ebike paragliders!

View attachment 133282

Hey, it could happen!

Well these guys make a paratrooper bike and an ebike, they just haven't combined the two yet...

Paratrooper | Montague Bikes

The classic folding mountain bike from Montague, the Paratrooper is tough, rugged, and ready for anything. Its patented folding design was developed under a grant from DARPA to allow airborne soldiers to drop out of airplanes and into combat. The Paratrooper offers 24 speeds, front suspension...

www.montaguebikes.com

 

[m@Robertson]

I think this link below points to a much more likely direction for ebikes. Since their inception, ebikes have been largely substandard in their use of cycling components, which means despite their price they are poor cousins to an analog bicycle in terms of durability and capability. I'm thinking frames and wheels in particular, but also drivetrains (looking at you: every manufactured hub drive bike) and really almost any part you care to name.

Just released, Onyx looks to be going hard core with their new LZR. Note these are pedal-only bikes. No throttles. I see a bit of the same coming from Frey with the Evolve bikes they just announced. But not so pronounced.

ONYX launches two high-flying and rugged mid-drive electric bikes for hardcore riding

California-based electric motorbike maker ONYX, famous for its retro-themed high-power electric mopeds, has just unveiled the ONYX LZR. Available with two different motor options, the ONYX LZR combines the rugged design of dirt jumpers with the power and speed of street-focused electric bikes...

electrek.co

I wouldn't call this innovation so much as it is playing catch-up... making an ebike as durable and reliable as a bike is via the bike components.

 

[retiredNH]

I think this link below points to a much more likely direction for ebikes. Since their inception, ebikes have been largely substandard in their use of cycling components, which means despite their price they are poor cousins to an analog bicycle in terms of durability and capability. I'm thinking frames and wheels in particular, but also drivetrains (looking at you: every manufactured hub drive bike) and really almost any part you care to name.

I wouldn't call this innovation so much as it is playing catch-up... making an ebike as durable and reliable as a bike is via the bike components.

Trek, Specialized and R&M use "substandard" components? Maybe this is true of Rad, Lectric and a few others, but then again, their ebikes sell for less than high quality analog bikes! You get what you pay for....

 

[Avg_Joe]

Anti-lock brakes are on the way, saw an article recently where Shimano and Bosch both showed them.

I expect (and dread) that there will be more connectivity options - 4g, 5g. So, you know, people can watch TikTok while riding, fun! Coupled with that, perhaps more powerful/feature-rich displays - or remove them completely where the mobile phone is the "display."

Shaving weight and improved batteries/battery chemistry.

Perhaps some AI to automagically tune the bike to the rider?

Frames, materials, components are very well-known and likely to see continued incremental upgrades - I wouldn't necessarily expect radical innovation in this area. Improvements, yes, but brand-new never-before-seen innovation? I'm doubtful.

 

[m@Robertson]

Trek, Specialized and R&M use "substandard" components? Maybe this is true of Rad, Lectric and a few others, but then again, their ebikes sell for less than high quality analog bikes! You get what you pay for....

I don't think thats a realistic viewpoint. Yes you can find a chosen few manufacturers - at *astronomical* price points - who are using good components. But they are far, far in the minority. "A few others" as you put it is in fact most of the market.

The Onyx LZR is shown making moves I'd never try on any manufactured ebike. Jumps. Drops. Stairs. Walls. Good luck finding an ebike frame with an integral battery that can take this kind of beating. And its a $3000 bike.

Try getting that kind of durability for 3 grand from an R&M (which I would not put in the workhorse category at all. Specialized for sure. Canondale probably. R&M's street bikes are fit for purpose but not overly so and not severe duty; which at their price point they should be).