e-bike battery prices are not coming down

[Asher]

Just gotta chime in on this myth (though it IS kind of a tangent).

The VAST majority of "exploding e-cigs" are actually improperly stored/treated 18650s (mostly the same Samsung/LGs used in e-bikes) and less frequently DUE - Dreaded User Error - when using a mechanical mod (which doesn't have a any electronics to regulate it).

Essentially most of the side of an 18650 is all negative, so if the wrap is damaged, it's very easy to complete a circuit in your pocket/purse if you have keys/coins in there. Same thing with the rare instances where someone didn't properly build a mech mod, or used an RDA with no protruding pin at the bottom of the 510 connector, again leading the improperly completing the circuit.

Sorry, I used to follow e-cig news closely (still use one), and followed these stories. Just my experience.

Uh... what's the myth? The corpses are real. I believe you that there's a right way to do it, but if people keep making fatal mistakes, then they shouldn't take it upon themselves to modify them is all I'm saying. And companies repeatedly making defective ones should be fined/shut down/ criminally prosecuted.

 

[Johnny]

Thankfully my yamaha 500WH battery is still good going into it's second year.. I was hoping the prices for replacement batteries would be coming down but they are not.. A replacement battery for my bike is $750-$850... Is anyone aware of where these batteries are available for less money?.. I doubt I could even sell my ebike now for what a replacement battery costs.. There is no reason these batteries should cost so much IMO.

Proprietary batteries are overpriced, there is no denying that.

Although I suspect that you can not go below a certain price(a $250 pack from a no-name brand from overseas will have its risks) while being safe (BMS prices, casing, cabling etc) for $800 a properly built, safe pack should be at least 800WH or more.

They are trying to play the game that Hp does with their printers. Locking the customer to their cartridges and overpricing them. But in the end they lost most of their customers because of that.

 

[steve mercier]

Just gotta chime in on this myth (though it IS kind of a tangent).

The VAST majority of "exploding e-cigs" are actually improperly stored/treated 18650s (mostly the same Samsung/LGs used in e-bikes) and less frequently DUE - Dreaded User Error - when using a mechanical mod (which doesn't have a any electronics to regulate it).

Essentially most of the side of an 18650 is all negative, so if the wrap is damaged, it's very easy to complete a circuit in your pocket/purse if you have keys/coins in there. Same thing with the rare instances where someone didn't properly build a mech mod, or used an RDA with no protruding pin at the bottom of the 510 connector, again leading the improperly completing the circuit.

Sorry, I used to follow e-cig news closely (still use one), and followed these stories. Just my experience.

Good luck kicking the habit...Covid 19 fighting needs strong lungs... I know you can do it!

 

[tomjasz]

Proprietary batteries are overpriced, there is no denying that.

Open a proprietary battery. Look at the cell connections, the BMS features, and the system communication. Next the warranty. Now tell us which battery suppose meets those standards. Bosch as an example flushes any packs that show any sign of a potential issue and the cells go to a secondary market. Don’t like the price? Make another choice. But for those that have the dollars and don’t want a repair hobby, it’s hard to beat those $800 batteries with 2-year warranties. Mind you they are not for me but sorting reliable batteries for non can bus systems is an adventure. Good builds aren’t cheap. I run two batteries from 2014. Quality builds and a programmable charger makes a difference.

 

[Johnny]

Open a proprietary battery. Look at the cell connections, the BMS features and the system communication. Next the warranty. Now tell which battery suppose meets those standards. Bosch as an example flushes Amy packs that shoe sny sign of potential issue and the cells go to a secondary market. Don’t like the price? Make another choice. But for those that have the dollars and don’t want z repair hobby it’s hard to beat those $800 batteries with 2 year warranties. Mind you they are not for me but sorting reliable batteries for non can bus systems is an adventure. Good builds aren’t cheap. I run two 2014 batteries from 2014. Quality builds and programmable charger makes a difference.

Thomas, it is hard to read what you are writing.


Btw, for those of you who are interested here is what is inside a Bosch powerpack https://endless-sphere.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=75748. Maybe you can show what is special about this 10s4p pack.

 

[Asher]

• The mid drives are more efficient, so you can get quite a few miles per watt hour of capacity, versus hub drives. The benefit of this is (knowing this going into your ebike purchase) you can more readily use a charger like the Satiator, where the battery charging process, and the limits of where its charged can really lengthen the life of the battery. I have some customers using them, and reporting up to 2000 cycles. Yes the satiator is not cheap, but when you have an expensive battery like this, it sure makes it worth the cost.
• Supply and demand in general, is such that the demand for lithium batteries is growing at a very high rate for all types of products, including obviously those like ebikes, and EV's, that use the 18650 cells. The 18650 format has been out for a lot of years, and while prices have dropped substantially from what they were 10 years ago, they have reached their technology plateau, and prices have likely bottomed for that platform, other than demand being such that they could be heading up at least until 2170's become more prevalent in use.

I agree with your other points and they are well put. Do you have an article on mid drive efficiency? I got 9 wh/mi at 22 mph or so on my Juiced, a hub drive, with vigorous pedaling and occasional hills. 190 lb rider.

Battery prices in general are only going down though.

Aside from longer warranties that guarantee longer lifespans, I wouldn't trust any justification these companies offer. The short and sweet of it is they have people locked in, their customer base either can't or won't buy value brands with lower prices, and they have a cozy little industry oligopoly. What will break it is small or Chinese brands doing an end run around them and offering lower prices/modular parts. Which is happening stateside but still not in Europe AFAICT.

 

[antboy]

Uh... what's the myth? The corpses are real. I believe you that there's a right way to do it, but if people keep making fatal mistakes, then they shouldn't take it upon themselves to modify them is all I'm saying. And companies repeatedly making defective ones should be fined/shut down/ criminally prosecuted.

I think it's less to do with "companies repeatedly making defective" e-cigarettes that explode as opposed to users being careless. I haven't heard of a single company with this reputation.

AFAIK one guy in Texas died last year, maybe one or two others, including one in the UK since e-cigs first started to become popular almost a decade ago, as there was a comprehensive list put out about a year ago. It looked at news stories around the world to date, and put the number in the 300's (total explosions) and a large chunk of those were loose batteries in handbags/jeans etc.

If you're conflating that with the "e-cigarette" deaths that occupied the news cycle last fall, that had nothing to do with e-cigs, but black/grey market THC cartridges that used vitamin E acetate to change the viscosity of their THC liquid. Vitamin E acetate is safe to digest, but not to inhale, as it's an oil that can cause sudden breathing problems.

The CDC itself was referring to the issue as lipoid pneumonia related to these THC liquids back in early Sept. 2019, but there were reports almost every night about "e-cigarette" deaths consistently in the news, even months later.

But this is tangential to e-bikes, beyond the common use of 18650's so I'll put a pin in it.

 

[antboy]

Good luck kicking the habit...Covid 19 fighting needs strong lungs... I know you can do it!

Thanks, tobacco's a harsh mistress. Nicotine is a hell of a drug with the worst delivery mechanism ever.

E-cigs are the the only thing that made me quit tobacco for more than a week. Did 1 and 1/2 years smoke free due to the vape.

 

[AHicks]

antboy, congrats on the smoke free. Now you just need a good reason to quit the rest of the way (doesn't really take much if you find the right reason).

 

[steve mercier]

Thanks, tobacco's a harsh mistress. Nicotine is a hell of a drug with the worst delivery mechanism ever.

E-cigs are the the only thing that made me quit tobacco for more than a week. Did 1 and 1/2 years smoke free due to the vape.

I think Nicorette gum or a patch would be better and save your lungs?

 

[tomjasz]

Thomas, it is hard to read what you are writing.


Btw, for those of you who are interested here is what is inside a Bosch powerpack https://endless-sphere.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=75748. Maybe you can show what is special about this 10s4p pack.

Mea Culpa on the poor response. My fat fingers, small screen, and rush to post before re-reading made it confusing. Perhaps now it's easier to parse?

you're not really taking a critical look. I can see cell separation, cell level fusing, color-coded balance wires, no cardboard (fish paper), solidly installed BMS, and safety features we can't see or check.

Look, proprietary batteries are what's holding me back from buying a Bosch, Yamaha, Shimano, and others. BUT a BIG BUT, I have now seen a dozen of those builds with more than 10,000 miles on the pack.

8 cents a mile works for me and obviously others.

Endless_Sphere accentuates failures but is a valuable resource, but it does require open eyes and critical reading of posted problems. There's no mention of the successes. AND it's really more of a DYI builders site.

 

[Johnny]

you're not really taking a critical look. I can see cell separation, cell level fusing, color-coded balance wires, no cardboard (fish paper), solidly installed BMS, and safety features we can't see or check.

Look, proprietary batteries are what's holding me back from buying a Bosch, Yamaha, Shimano, and others. BUT a BIG BUT, I have now seen a dozen of those builds with more than 10,000 miles on the pack.

8 cents a mile works for me and obviously others.

These are valid points and that is why I mentioned a risk when buying cheap packs from overseas.

I do see the build quality of the pack and I do care about safety a lot. But still I really can not see why their packs can not be build as safe for much cheaper or with much higher capacity.

Tesla has far more experience on ev batteries then yamaha,bosch etc. Tesla batteries are very well designed having all the safety features like cell level fusing built in. A model 3 battery consist of almost 4400 cells(adding up to a capacity of 75KW) instead of 40 cells that a bosch ebike battery contains and that makes it a far more challenging task to manage the heat and make it safe. Also according to user reports Tesla batteries are lasting an incredibly long time, far longer than ebike batteries.

With bosch, yamaha pricing a battery having the capacity of Model 3 Tesla battery should cost $120K!!!


Also individual pricing is a thing that these companies use to make money(Bosch sells a simple intuvia control unit which is just a cheap plastic button for $40-50). I don't think Yamaha, Bosch etc. are selling these packs to ebike manufacturers $800 a piece(maybe someone who knows the real pricing can chime in).

 

[tomjasz]

We do sell batteries that are every bit as good. But not compatible with can bus batteries.