Thanks
@Readytoride, that was very interesting. Just for the sake of argument, here are my concerns:
The US has plenty of oil but no lithium. Should we be concerned about the world lithium supply and what countries control it?
Are we banking too heavily on the hopes battery & charging technology will improve, using more common materials?
Is our generating capacity & grid up to handling the increased load without having to burn more fossil fuels?
Will an EV transportation system fail completely during a widespread disaster? Oil can be transported to these areas by pipeline or truck. Electricity cannot without a grid.
A slow evolution toward an EV based transportation system is a good thing but rushing it may not be in our best interest until the above questions are answered.
My thoughts (and experiences - I'm an old lady but love technology so factor that in.
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1. The US has been "exploring" homegrown lithium reserves for years since the lithium technology came out on top in the fastest/strongest/highest charging capability race in the past few decades. The western state of Nevada currently has discovered it has one of the biggest reserves in the world (Thacker Pass Lithium Mine). Supposedly it's the 3rd largest in the world. At the moment the current "mining" in the US comprises 3.8% worldwide production, but that number is growing. So no concerns for the future production or being held captive by other countries that could throttle the supply chain.
2. Honestly speaking, I regard lithium the same as I regard whale oil for lamps, or colbalt batteries. It's a transitory technology, a stop-gap. On top today, and not the leader tomorrow. I hear the battery industry is heavily banking on the development of high density solid state batteries which use a solid electrolyte rather than a liquid electrolyte (lithium). Easier to build, cheaper, lighter, faster to charge, and no rare earth materials. I'd say a decade or so more research and development is needed, but seeing how NASA is as deeply invested as they are, there is no doubt it will be a reality before long.
3. Unlike oil which relies 100% on finite resources, electricity has a broad range of essentially free infinite sources: wind, solar, ocean water tides. The progress in utilizing battery technology for transportation is being matched by advances in the solar industry in increasing the efficiency of solar collecting panels. There isn't a single household that can drill on its own property for oil, pump it, refine it at home, and use it in their vehicles or furnances, etc. There are, however, thousands of residences worldwide whose numbers are increasing every day building their own "power plants" of solar, wind, or water. Last year we put in a solar array that is producing enough energy to happily supply not only our house with all of its electrical needs, but both of our electric cars. My goal down the road is to eventually have batteries to store our solar electric, rather than feeding it back into the grid and taking it back in the quantities we need while letting the grid hold on to our excess until we need it. It's called NetZero, and cost is virtually a $7 a month connection fee, and no cost whatsoever for the Grid to hold our power and feed it back to us when we want it. Payback to the Grid is their ability to claim our "green power" as part of the fossil fuel reduction initiatives (and heafy fines for non-compliance) being instituted by the governments on utility electricity generation. It's a win-win for all of us - me, the utility, and the government.
Now, do I belive NetZero to be sustainable as more and more residences and industries start producing their own power? No, I think in the long run that the Grid is going to have to start charging more for their services as a middleman. It just stands to reason, economically speaking, because homegrown electricity is almost impossible to maintain on a steady state basis which is what the Grid was developed to do with generators that run 24/7. They never stopped the generators because of a number of factors. You can Google why they don't, so I don't have to make this thread an endless one. The drawbacks to green technology are: sun only shines during the day, and the wind blows when the wind feels like it. The only constant would be ocean tides which are 24/7 but the technology to capture is limited to available waters. Even hydropower on a small basis using streams is still subject to weather variations such as winter and droughts. A big Grid issue, not quite for a single entity.
So that brings us back to how to sustain a steady stream of electricity needed under inconsistent sources. Batteries are the answer. More energy condensed, and Iighter/faster/cheaper/maintainable without maintenance for decades, etc. Hence the worldwide push to find that "golden egg" already freely available without having to feed and house and protect the goose.
5. No. Not to the extent that an oil crisis would have in crippling us. As more and more businesses and residences build battery capability into their solar and wind collection systems, the less any regional or country wide areas will suffer from outages. Read up on the
solar community of Babcock Ranch near Ft Meyers after Hurricane Ian devastated that area of Florida. They not only stayed up and running with all their electricity but managed to mitigate a lot of the damage that hurricanes habitually inflict on unprepared communities.
6. Not only can electricity be produced and available without the necessity of a corporate utility, but it also allows us the freedom that we don't have right now since we are tied to a corporate entity that dictates how much we are allowed to use, and how much they charge us to use it. If you think about oil as something that merely has to be trucked in, you're forgetting about it having to surmount roads that have been destroyed, ports of call that have been ravaged and unable to support tanker ships, and critical distribution points along the way to feed stations that might have been completely wiped out with no other means of people getting fuel for fossil- fuel-based implements.
Considering that we live in a global economic community, and everything we do now is really based upon corporations and businesses and industries that operate worldwide with a distribution chain that extends around the world, do you think you'd be happier with having some solar panels on your roof, making you electricity that you can store in your own batteries, and having that support your lifestyle? Personally, I would. If anything, I hate the chain that industry has around our neck for our everyday lives for the rest of our lives. I'm ready for a little freedom. And if the sun is free, I'm in there for all I can grab.
More thoughts to come but I'm running late so will expand on this later.
And thanks for listening. Loving your collective feedback and questions.
PS : disclaimer : over 30 years of writing articles for national magazines on the days of horses and carriages as transportation and sport, and endless hours researching in centuries old crumbling magazines, dusty books and periodicals for the then current observations written during the very heyday of those horse powered eras. So I'm well versed in the history of our world before the combustion engine and electric made the horse and oxen supplied power a foot note rather then the headline it was once.