Wonder what business model will prevail?
Manufacturers that have this "model" will prevail: "All bike purchases must ship to an authorized retailer"
~From the Trek web site.
Manufacturers that base thier long term growth and stability on a quality product first, and provide a profit opportunity for the local retailer with dependable parts, service, and service training, will almost alway survive in the long run.
Manufacturers that want to bypass the LBS and sell thier bikes strictly online, that don't assist the local retailer with the financing of bike inventory, parts inventory, service equipment, and trainning, will almost alway fall by the wayside in tough times. Manufacturers that choose to avoid long term capital investment in the local dealer network will come and go.
I say this from the persepective of somebody that purchased his first two ebikes from a U.S. based assembler that sold Chinese sourced bikes striclty online, but now boasts over 1,000 LBS parts and service providers in the U.S.. My second bike was my DIY, that built from online sourced parts. My third bike was from a boutique U.S. assembler that sold Chinese sourced bikes, and my fourth bike from a Chinese manufacturer with no U.S. presence except a shipping warehouse in CA. The risk to me was acceptable becuase if I have the manual and the right tools, I believe I can fix anything, and I was interested in learning through repair and modification of ebikes.
The vast majority of ebike sales will be to consumers that cannot, and do not want to fix thier ebike themselves. It is astounding to me how many bikers pay the local LBS just to change brake pads, and we know how simple that operation is. This type of owner is willing to drop thier bike off to the LBS for a week just to get this service performed, and it costs a pretty penny. This is where the money is. Aftermarket service and sales at the retail level generate long term, repeat revenue, and financial stability for the manufacturer, the LBS, and local community.
When people ask me where to buy an ebike, I direct them to my local TREK bike store (carrying Trek and Electra ebikes) becuase they will be best served by the local dealer with inventory, parts, and trained service personnel.
I have one qualifier: If they reside near Petaluma CA, I would advise them to first take look at bikes built by
@PedalUma