The transition

[Jeremy McCreary]

New info on the CATL super safe batteries.
Starts at 4.00, and shes cute as well.

Can't quite tell if the new batteries are already in production, but they're certainly a major leap forward if they pan out. Also good news on the recycling front.

Wonder if the new tech is adaptable to micromibility applications?

 

[Chargeride]

The new 3000hp BYD supercar achieved 496km/h.
Its also running a 1200 volt battery

 

[ausGeoff]

Volkswagen is to pause production at three of its plants in
Germany—Dresden, Zwickau, and Osnabrück—because of
weak demand for fully electric cars in Europe. Closure days
are also being considered at a fourth plant in Emden, which
makes the ID.4 and ID.7 vehicles.

The decision by a company emblematic of Germany’s position
as the engine of the EU’s economy, will be seen as a dent in
the union’s hopes of switching the continent to electric vehicles
in the next 10 years. In southern Europe, where there is little
EV charging infrastructure, demand is particularly weak. Overall,
just 16% of new car sales are EVs, according to UAMA data. The
figure for hybrids is 37%.

Only 9.3% of vehicles sold in Australia are full electric, as of 30 June 2025.

 

[Chargeride]

I liked it, but its not good.

They are also hugely skewing the figures with disability cars, fleet purchase pressure and registering unsold cars and selling as second hand.

The charging infrastructure is just horrific, nothing but multiple apps, phone signal issues, complexity and safety issues for public chargers.

we are still in early adopter territory.

EVs are good enough as a car, good enough for people to adjust their refilling routine to accomodate the tech.

But not for me till salt batteries, good resale value and chargers that take bank cards

 

[Stefan Mikes]

A picture from last Sunday. The bottom photo shows how popular transporting bikes on the train in Poland is, even on a cold Autumn day. The top photo deserves a humorous description. The train is made in Poland but is of a German design. As drinking alcohol in public places is allowed in Germany, the designer had designed a "partying compartment" Fancy eine Gruppe von Kumpeln having a good time over beer standing by the table at the right! For me, the "partying compartment" is the best place to keep my e-bike for the transport as the nearby bike compartment is almost always busy!

Oops! Wrong thread It's for you @Chargeride as you secretly envy us Poles our comfort of life

 

[ausGeoff]

In Australian conditions, most EV manufacturers guarantee at least 70-80%
capacity after 8 years for their batteries, or 160,000km.

As of May this year, average battery replacement costs are as per:

• Tesla Model S = AU$12,000 to $22,000 (ouch!)
• Nissan Leaf = AU$8,000 to $12,500
• Hyundai Kona Electric = AU$12,465 to $15,000 I can replace a short 6-cylinder petrol engine in an 8-year-old vehicle for around AU$3,500 plus around $1,200 labour costs—which makes the EV battery of the same age look like highway robbery. And that old petrol engine could've already hit 320,000km as a country driver, or twice the mileage of an equivalent EV battery.

 

[Chargeride]

There is no denying EVs are far simpler propulsion wise, the new battery tech is considerably longer lasting and cold proof.
I think in maybe 30 years when ICE is a minority product for passenger cars we will look back at the tech like we look at valve radios.

 

[mschwett]

I liked it, but its not good.

They are also hugely skewing the figures with disability cars, fleet purchase pressure and registering unsold cars and selling as second hand.

The charging infrastructure is just horrific, nothing but multiple apps, phone signal issues, complexity and safety issues for public chargers.

we are still in early adopter territory.

EVs are good enough as a car, good enough for people to adjust their refilling routine to accomodate the tech.

But not for me till salt batteries, good resale value and chargers that take bank cards

the infrastructure no doubt varies from place to place. I don‘t charge all that often but I’ve used DC fast chargers that just needed a credit card tap, same as a gas station. also use an app for Tesla or Electrify America, and it takes about 30 seconds to start a charge. the only real difference vs gas is how long it takes - about 15 minutes from 20 to 80/85 percent. I had to wait twice due to no stalls being available, but never in a situation where I absolutely had to charge. on the flipside, I don’t have a gas station at home, but I do have a charger. I’d say it’s a wash, with the EV being much cheaper and much more convenient for day to say use, bit less convenient for very long trips.

 

[kevinmccune]

In Australian conditions, most EV manufacturers guarantee at least 70-80%
capacity after 8 years for their batteries, or 160,000km.

As of May this year, average battery replacement costs are as per:

• Tesla Model S = AU$12,000 to $22,000 (ouch!)
• Nissan Leaf = AU$8,000 to $12,500
• Hyundai Kona Electric = AU$12,465 to $15,000 I can replace a short 6-cylinder petrol engine in an 8-year-old vehicle for around AU$3,500 plus around $1,200 labour costs—which makes the EV battery of the same age look like highway robbery. And that old petrol engine could've already hit 320,000km as a country driver, or twice the mileage of an equivalent EV battery.

how many qts of $7plus motor oil have you consumed during this period how about belts .filters exhaust systems ,more frequent brake replacement,ignition parts ,emission equipment,drivelines components? there is more to it besides fuel and the prime mover,the biggest hurdle for me is cost and the daggone diesel power tools are very hard to start and heavy not to mention that buzzing ICE gets very dang annoying,EVs may not be cheaper IMO better,the time in the techs stalls on the ICEs are a bitch as well in an unruley crowd EVs are better because they are harder to turn over(whatever,just not a good choice in the outback)

 

[mschwett]

of note, this is actual generation, not capacity.

40% plus of new vehicle registrations in some bay area counties are now electric. the most shocking thing about this chart is the amount of change in just 10 years, despite a hostile federal government for much of it, despite high costs, overregulation, red tape, etc.

 

[harryS]

Meanwhile US Department of Energy is trying to reverse the transition by banning these words.

"The terms staffers are forbidden from using include: climate change, green, decarbonization, energy transition, sustainability, sustainable, subsidies, tax breaks, tax credits, and carbon footprint."

 

[ausGeoff]

how many qts of $7plus motor oil have you consumed during this period how about belts .filters exhaust systems ,more frequent brake replacement,ignition parts ,emission equipment,drivelines components? there is more to it besides fuel and the prime mover,the biggest hurdle for me is cost and the daggone diesel power tools are very hard to start and heavy not to mention that buzzing ICE gets very dang annoying,EVs may not be cheaper IMO better,the time in the techs stalls on the ICEs are a bitch as well in an unruley crowd EVs are better because they are harder to turn over(whatever,just not a good choice in the outback)

G'day Kevin...

Yes, I can certainly agree with you that the running costs and maintenance of
EVs such as the Tesla, (and others) are far less than those of a similar ICE model.
I guess I was focussing specifically on the cost ratio of replacing an EV battery
with replacing a petrol-fuelled engine.

Another issue of course is the disposal and/or refurbishing an EV motor versus a
petrol engine. I can replace an ICE in my backyard—and have done so in the past.

The major challenge facing EV battery recycling today in Australia is the low volumes
due to most EVs still being relatively new. Over the coming decade, as more EV batteries
become available, there are significant economic opportunities for Australia both in
second-life applications of these batteries, and recycling these batteries to be used in
the manufacturing of new batteries.

At the end of the day, and as someone whose driving kms are 99% country, an EV
is not cost efficient from a purchasing perspective. I can buy an ICE Mazda 2 G15,
an MG ZS Excite, a Cherry Tiggo 4 Pro Urban, or a Kia Picanto for well under AU$30K
drive away. The cheapest EV is currently{!) the 2023 GWM Ora Standard at AU$34K
drive away. The cheapest Tesla Model 3 is an eye-watering AU$62K.

Ultimately though, yes—EVs come out on top after (say) eight years of ownership.

​

​

 

[kevinmccune]

w

the infrastructure no doubt varies from place to place. I don‘t charge all that often but I’ve used DC fast chargers that just needed a credit card tap, same as a gas station. also use an app for Tesla or Electrify America, and it takes about 30 seconds to start a charge. the only real difference vs gas is how long it takes - about 15 minutes from 20 to 80/85 percent. I had to wait twice due to no stalls being available, but never in a situation where I absolutely had to charge. on the flipside, I don’t have a gas station at home, but I do have a charger. I’d say it’s a wash, with the EV being much cheaper and much more convenient for day to say use, bit less convenient for very long trips.

what i like is no more crawling under the car to service the engine age is starting to affect me now and what do with the toxic residues after ice service,nothing convenient about it,you can give it to someone with a waste oil heater or try to find a shop that will take it,all the filters contribute to landfills filling up.as well and let me tell you the prices for all these various filters are going out the roof-I went to a battery leaf blower and string trimmer,been very satisfied would go battery zero turn if I could afford it.back when the grass was booming used several gallons of gas a week just to keep grass at a reasonable height.

 

[Chargeride]

of note, this is actual generation, not capacity.

40% plus of new vehicle registrations in some bay area counties are now electric. the most shocking thing about this chart is the amount of change in just 10 years, despite a hostile federal government for much of it, despite high costs, overregulation, red tape, etc.

View attachment 200154

Using graphs to distort the reality.

California's solar faces a challenge of "too much" solar energy at certain times, leading to wasted clean power due to the "duck curve" and transmission congestion. While the state has abundant solar power, the grid lacks the infrastructure to store or distribute all of it, resulting in "curtailment" where excess energy is discarded. To address this, California is working to increase demand through electrification and build more transmission lines.

Every day the solar 100% stops working until morning.

 

[PedalUma]

Using graphs to distort the reality.

California's solar faces a challenge of "too much" solar energy at certain times, leading to wasted clean power due to the "duck curve" and transmission congestion. While the state has abundant solar power, the grid lacks the infrastructure to store or distribute all of it, resulting in "curtailment" where excess energy is discarded. To address this, California is working to increase demand through electrification and build more transmission lines.

Every day the solar 100% stops working until morning.

1/3rd of all of California's electricity is used to pump water. You can pump it up hill in the day. That is an energy storage system.

I recycled a cycle this week. It was a ten-year-old Steel Surly Straggler gravel bike. I kept the patina but made it mechanically dialed. It has Hayes mechanical brakes that are like jewelry and work better than most hydraulics. Because it is a gravel adventure bikepacking bike, you don't want to be a hundred miles out and get vapor lock on a hot day at a low pressure high altitude. It has to be super reliable. Shifting is simple mechanical for the same reason. If a shifter battery were to go out, you would be stuck on the wrong side of a mountain. What is very cool is that it totally blows the doors off of this other bike. Its peak power is 864 watts with the standard controller, and it is super quiet. The loud and slow 320 watt Specialized is for weekend Dentists in Spandex. A Creo cannot even carry the Sunday Times and a dozen eggs. The Surly can carry a week's worth of camping equipment up a mountain. And it goes 49 kph.

 

[mschwett]

Using graphs to distort the reality.

California's solar faces a challenge of "too much" solar energy at certain times, leading to wasted clean power due to the "duck curve" and transmission congestion. While the state has abundant solar power, the grid lacks the infrastructure to store or distribute all of it, resulting in "curtailment" where excess energy is discarded. To address this, California is working to increase demand through electrification and build more transmission lines.

Every day the solar 100% stops working until morning.

the duck curve is a real problem, but that’s why i pointed out the graph is GENERATION not capacity. massive amounts of energy don’t just go away, they get used. the generation capacity is far more than the actual amount generated because as you note it can’t all be used all the time.

it doesn’t change the fact that more of the actual energy used in california came from solar than any other source.

the distortion is not the graph, it’s your mischaracterization of what generation means. if it wasn’t for the problems you refer to, the solar generation would be even higher and the gas even lower, because that “excess” solar generating potential would be used and stored. electricity cannot simply be thrown away.

 

[Art Deco]

There is no denying EVs are far simpler propulsion wise, the new battery tech is considerably longer lasting and cold proof.
I think in maybe 30 years when ICE is a minority product for passenger cars we will look back at the tech like we look at valve radios.

The tech is moving very fast, but ICE cars and trucks (and the industries that depend on them) have a 100 year headstart.
Even if the auto executives spent half that century snoozing away in their offices there's a lot of development to do on EVs and especially on EV infrastructure that's already in place for ICE cars and trucks.
The potential strengths of EVs are still outweighed by their weaknesses, speaking for myself in a rural area.

 

[PedalUma]

Ocean waves are now producing power. The tides are next. A 100 thousand pound dock goes up and down twice each day, it is a power pump. Spin the generators on the Up and on the Down. At off peak, pump some fresh water uphill.

 

[Art Deco]

Ocean waves are now producing power. The tides are next. A 100 thousand pound dock goes up and down twice each day, it is a power pump. Spin the generators on the Up and on the Down. At off peak, pump some water uphill.

Indeed think of the power of water lifting and floating a huge ship or other great weight then that weight turning a huge generator when the level recedes ... every day at low tide.

 

[Chargeride]

the duck curve is a real problem, but that’s why i pointed out the graph is GENERATION not capacity. massive amounts of energy don’t just go away, they get used. the generation capacity is far more than the actual amount generated because as you note it can’t all be used all the time.

it doesn’t change the fact that more of the actual energy used in california came from solar than any other source.

the distortion is not the graph, it’s your mischaracterization of what generation means. if it wasn’t for the problems you refer to, the solar generation would be even higher and the gas even lower, because that “excess” solar generating potential would be used and stored. electricity cannot simply be thrown away.

Millions of dollars of 'generated' electricity is thrown away because solar farms are paid to switch off.
Its very difficult to nail what they count as generated.

'Yes, energy generated by solar farms in California still counts toward the state's renewable energy goals, even when some farms are required to switch off or reduce their output due to grid stability issues or to support agriculture.'

The renewable industry has a long and continuing history of fudging and greying soundbites for media consumption.
What exactly is capacity, the output if the sun was directly overhead on a clear day 24hrs a day.

Annual Generation Estimate: A solar farm's annual electricity generation is calculated based on its installed capacity (MW) and an average annual energy consumption per household (kWh).

So when they press release solar farm will power ten thousand homes, its a theoretical figure based on capacity, they dont mention if the night is figured in.

Then you dig down further to find a 'home' is another theoretical construct based on a home that doesnt include any high power consumption.

Im still trying to track down how they measure generated, because you can guarantee they will fudge it in their favour, wirds like 'curtailment'.
Strangely enough it seems California has to pay nearby states to use their excess solar
'This happens because solar power production peaks during the day when demand may be low, leading to a surplus that must be exported at "negative prices" (meaning the exporting entity pays the receiving entity) or the solar power is simply "throttled" or wasted.'

EVs are almost entirely going to be charged at night when solar is completely dead, so battery banks.
GWs of battery banks and pylons running everywhere to feed them.

The answer is obvious, rationing.