What Will A Cold War With China Mean To Ebike Industry ?

darksky said:
I read that Pedego switched manufacturing from China to Vietnam some time ago because of the "tariff war" on China.
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I really wonder about the statistics regarding where bikes and parts are made. I suspect something like 85% come out of China.
 
I think shoehorning an old concept like a "cold war" into our present situation is a little bit fraught, and assumes that China is driven by motivations similar to those that drove the old Soviet Union after WWII and the United States in the same period. Also assuming that a cold war won't turn hot because nobody can afford it assumes that government officials are perfectly rational and have perfect judgement, which to me seems damned unlikely.

The United States in 2021 is not the United States of 1948
China in 2021 is not the Soviet Union of 1948
 
Mr. Coffee said:
I think shoehorning an old concept like a "cold war" into our present situation is a little bit fraught, and assumes that China is driven by motivations similar to those that drove the old Soviet Union after WWII and the United States in the same period. Also assuming that a cold war won't turn hot because nobody can afford it assumes that government officials are perfectly rational and have perfect judgement, which to me seems damned unlikely.

The United States in 2021 is not the United States of 1948
China in 2021 is not the Soviet Union of 1948
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Yeah. Who the heck knows? But guessing about the geopolitics of the whole deal is beside ( but still relevant ) the point. I'm wondering if the world can make enough parts and frames to take up the slack if China gets sent to after-class-detention for a while?
 
reed scott said:
Yeah. Who the heck knows? But guessing about the geopolitics of the whole deal is beside ( but still relevant ) the point. I'm wondering if the world can make enough parts and frames to take up the slack if China gets sent to after-class-detention for a while?
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That depends on the time frame. I suspect some things are changing even now. Businesses in general aren't happy if they have customers willing to buy and no product to sell, and I think it a safe bet that every business is rethinking supply chains and probably will throw out much of what they did before.

This isn't about just bike parts. Auto companies aren't able to make enough cars to meet demand because there aren't enough chips available to build the cars. And it goes on and on.

In Europe they've developed new processes to make lightweight and strong steel alloys that are well-suited for bike frames. My understanding (pre-pandemic) was that multiple factories were being built (mostly in eastern Europe) to make bike frames with those new processes.

In the States there are lots of technically excellent cottage-industry scale companies making great bikes and great components, mostly catering to the very high end. I think a partnership between (for example) Trek and Chris King and Co-motion might produce fantastic bikes on a large scale at reasonable cost.
 
reed scott said:
Please. I don’t care about or subscribe to this author’s politics. He’s not on the ‘in power’ team but many think we are indeed going into full scale Cold War with China. Makes me wonder how much Taiwan can ramp up production?

pjmedia.com

Tom Cotton's Bold Strategy to Fight the New 'Cold War' Against China's 'Evil Empire'

On Thursday, Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) released a roadmap to counter the Chinese Communist Party and
pjmedia.com pjmedia.com
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And yet here you are pushing it. If you didn’t care or subscribe to it you wouldn’t have read it or cared to push it. Please.
 
reed scott said:
Not doubting the 'Dutch made' but I do question just how much of the bike is manufactured in Europe? Do you know? :)
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I'm no bike expert. Probably not the Shimano gearing. It wouldn't matter, would it? The bike would be shipped from Europe. Plus I would be more worried about Tom Cotton having a lot of power than a cold war with China.
 
Dallant said:
And yet here you are pushing it. If you didn’t care or subscribe to it you wouldn’t have read it or cared to push it. Please.
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Pushing what? I thought I was starting a discussion about ebike manufacturing and focusing on whether or not there could be a problem if the West gets more confrontational with China than we already are. I guess we are not supposed to speak of such things? 😶
 
Cowlitz said:
I'm no bike expert. Probably not the Shimano gearing. It wouldn't matter, would it? The bike would be shipped from Europe. Plus I would be more worried about Tom Cotton having a lot of power than a cold war with China.
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Please, in the interests of polite discussion and the friendliness of this board can we not be blatantly political? I only wish to discuss supply and demand and possible future problems for the ebike world regarding availability of parts and frames. :)
 
reed scott said:
Please, in the interests of polite discussion and the friendliness of this board can we not be blatantly political? I only wish to discuss supply and demand and possible future problems for the ebike world regarding availability of parts and frames. :)
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@reed scott ,

In fairness I think your original post had a fairly substantial political tone.
 
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