"The coming together of the bike and car industries"

[J.R.]

The automotive industry introduced the idea of multi-mode ebikes, controlled by geofencing, at Eirobike this year. Are riders ready for this?

September 15, 2021

Bike and automotive industries to lock horns on e-Bike regulations?

Both the bicycle and automotive industries appear to have different ideas on what future e-bike speed regulations may look like.

cyclingindustry.news

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Will we all be riding BMW, Volkswagen, GM and Ford ebikes one day?

Will Trek, Specialized and Haibike be squashed by the big boys of the automotive industry?

Is multi-mode the future for ebikes? All 3 classes/ebike & S-Ped all rolled into one.

Will Europe accept anything other than 25 mph (15.5 mph) on paths and lanes? Will the US accept 20/28 mph on paths and lanes?

Will geofencing be a reality, on a grand scale, in our time? Will the tech be accepted? Will it work as designed?

Would you buy an ebike that's geo controlled?

Any and all comments are welcome. This may not seem like a relevant topic today, but I think, given the money behind it, it will be soon.

 

[RunForTheHills]

Could BMW sell the concept of a speed limiter in their cars based on the cars location to their customers? I think it is a bad idea and wouldn't buy one. This is not to mention the slippery slope of the possibility of your bike tracking your movements storing it in a black box.

 

[Hasaf]

I am not saying that this article is what it will look like, but I do expect to see a major shakeout in the industry. It happens in most industries that grow fast on the back of technological advancement and the hard work of small venture owners.

On that many here probably remember is the plethora of small PC makers around twenty years ago. The reality is that most of them are gone. Sure, you can point at Dell, but there were so many that we don't remember. It is important to not be blinded by survivor bias. I expect something similar in the eBike industry. As Keynes said, "the market can remain irrational longer than one can remain solvent." It takes deep pockets to survive general sector shakeouts.

As far as the speed limiters set by remote boundaries. I will not be surprised. As far as, "would this be acceptable in autos?" If autos appeared today, it is hard to think that they wouldn't be limited in a similar pattern. It is only the rich legislative history that protects autos from such a fate today. That said, I would have no trouble envisioning a future where such devices are mandated. Understand, I am not saying it is good, but I would not be surprised to see it.

 

[Stefan Mikes]

Here Bosch eBike Systems CEO Claus Fleischer told CI.N in no uncertain terms his strong feeling on the e-Bike regulations matter, stating: “Of primary importance to the industry at large is the safeguarding of the pedelec designed to cut of 25kmh; this must, at all costs, remain legislatively as a bicycle. That is our treasure. We know there are different influencers who have a view on changing this. In my view, they forget we may lose this status of the e-Bike within the bicycle framework. We must remain without licence and insurance requirement, with bike path access.”

I have no slightest idea what the future holds but the person who decided 25 km/h was the natural speed of a bike had probably never ridden a bike. (I wonder if Herr Claus Fleischer ever did, and if he did, whether he ever left the bike path for road).

Could BMW sell the concept of a speed limiter in their cars based on the cars location to their customers? I think it is a bad idea and wouldn't buy one.

Oh, I'm afraid that would happen to Europe faster than you think. Especially, as there is no speed limit on many German freeways (the only EU country that allows that!)

 

[Art Deco]

If the car sets the speed based on location, it can also set the speed to 0, when you try to cross a closed border. No checkpoints or papers needed at the borders, since the car knows who you are and where and how fast you are allowed to go.

 

[Stefan Mikes]

Interesting comments from:

An e-bike on cycle lanes but an electric moped on the road – BMW’s geofencing vision of the future of electric bikes

When does an e-bike officially become a moped? E-bike legislation is a tricksy, knotty thing. BMW’s view is that the complexities are best addressed through the bike’s own software. BMW has coined the term ‘AMBY’ to mean “adaptive mobility” and announced two concept vehicles – the BMW i Vision...

ebiketips.road.cc

 

[Asher]

Carmakers have not been and will not be a part of a mass e-bike rollout for the next few years (beyond that is impossible to predict). Carmakers don't know how to do anything that's less than billions in costs and revenue. And, e-bikes are so cheap comparatively that it's hard to sell e-bikes without cannibalizing your own car lines. To date, everything carmakers have done with e/bikes is a joke or a failure.

If there is one exception, I'd say Honda, given it's record with mopeds. But they've shown no interest.

Auto suppliers, however, very much will be. Bosch and Continental are two obvious examples. Others are getting into the business.

If European cities start to more aggressively banish cars en masse, vaporizing the market for cars in those places, carmakers may rethink their absence, but both of those will take several years.

 

[Art Deco]

Carmakers have not been and will not be a part of a mass e-bike rollout for the next few years (beyond that is impossible to predict). Carmakers don't know how to do anything that's less than billions in costs and revenue. And, e-bikes are so cheap comparatively that it's hard to sell e-bikes without cannibalizing your own car lines. To date, everything carmakers have done with e/bikes is a joke or a failure.

If there is one exception, I'd say Honda, given it's record with mopeds. But they've shown no interest.

Auto suppliers, however, very much will be. Bosch and Continental are two obvious examples. Others are getting into the business.

If European cities start to more aggressively banish cars en masse, vaporizing the market for cars in those places, carmakers may rethink their absence, but both of those will take several years.

Might make them interested in the North American markets if they are going to overhaul their bike lines, but I doubt it.

 

[J.R.]

Carmakers have not been and will not be a part of a mass e-bike rollout for the next few years (beyond that is impossible to predict). Carmakers don't know how to do anything that's less than billions in costs and revenue. And, e-bikes are so cheap comparatively that it's hard to sell e-bikes without cannibalizing your own car lines. To date, everything carmakers have done with e/bikes is a joke or a failure.

If there is one exception, I'd say Honda, given it's record with mopeds. But they've shown no interest.

Auto suppliers, however, very much will be. Bosch and Continental are two obvious examples. Others are getting into the business.

If European cities start to more aggressively banish cars en masse, vaporizing the market for cars in those places, carmakers may rethink their absence, but both of those will take several years.

What car manufacturers have done to this point is a combination of marketing, novelty and virtue signaling. Not a serious effort at all. GM, Chrysler, Ford, BMW, Mercedes have all done it. The real effort will be a spinoff industry. When they do this, they are successful. The first serious player to do this is Harley Davidson and Serial 1. The jury is still out on that effort, but the bikes have been well received.

The automotive industry can ramp up quick, they also shutdown even quicker, abandoning customers. It's as though they are too risk adverse. Polaris is one such company. I used to hold a small amount of shares in Polaris and have watched them closely for 20 years. They start a product line quick and if it doesn't boom quick, they abandon it. They did this with Victory motorcycles and their ebike line. Good company to make money with investment, but I wouldn't buy an ebike from them until they have a history.

Automakers have a tough row to hoe. Tougher than bicycle companies. Their union contracts alone will make their ebikes more expensive than Trek or Giant. That's one of the biggest reasons HD spun off to Serial 1. HD is another company I invested in, in '92. I still have a very modest position. There's more to the issue than whether they can or will enter the ebike market. There is a deep, deep financial angle to consider.

I've said it many times on these pages that i don't want an ebike that relies on a smartphone or cell towers to function. I can see some countries adopting geofencing as a means to control ebikes and cars. I think the US will be one of the last to be able to adopt it due to constitutional constraints. I think some will want it and some will try.

Generations to come will deal with all these weighty issues.... going for a ride, with the phone off and in the pannier

 

[Stefan Mikes]

Continental

They went out of the e-bike business.

 

[Asher]

"The real effort will be a spinoff industry."
A spinoff effort is the most likely, but even then, it's more efficient for carmakers to simply give their profits back to shareholders than to try anything in the ebike sector. It's like McDonalds experimenting with hot dog carts, the scale is too small, their cost structure too big, and the expertise required too far afield from their bread and butter.

They went out of the e-bike business.

I was referring to the tires, where Continental has top quality wares. Also Valeo is making ebike motors.

 

[Stefan Mikes]

I was referring to the tires, where Continental has top quality wares.

I know about it. Just wanted to mention Conti had their chance but closed the e-bike motor branch in 2019, with legal obligations requiring them stay in business by 2022.