Many Tariffs likely to end by Q2 2019

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This may surprise a lot of people, but China has been suffering mightily due to the Trump tariff's. Their economy was already in a massive tail spin before the tariff's, and their stock market getting hammered, which made Trump's timing even better. (as far as leverage). That's why (strategically) he just piled on, announcing more and more.

Now China is going to come to the table to begin talks...end of November. The Yuan is also taking a major beating. Making any imports to their own country VERY expensive for them. While our dollar is staying strong, sort of blunting the impact of tariffs to us. (you really haven't seen that many ebike firms raising their prices now, have you ?)

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/19/xi-jinping-donald-trump-meet-863919

Most of the tariffs will likely be withdrawn by middle of next year. Not a prediction. Just stating the obvious when looking at the big picture. China is already blinking, despite their prior rhetoric.
 
Isn't the US still setting record numbers in trade deficit? How does that factor into your crystal ball?
 
any recent reported numbers are reflecting the rush by many of the affected industries to accelerate imports before the tariffs kicked in. nice try though. ;)
 
Deleted Member 4210 said:
This may surprise a lot of people, but China has been suffering mightily due to the Trump tariff's. Their economy was already in a massive tail spin before the tariff's, and their stock market getting hammered, which made Trump's timing even better. (as far as leverage). That's why (strategically) he just piled on, announcing more and more.

Now China is going to come to the table to begin talks...end of November. The Yuan is also taking a major beating. Making any imports to their own country VERY expensive for them. While our dollar is staying strong, sort of blunting the impact of tariffs to us. (you really haven't seen that many ebike firms raising their prices now, have you ?)

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/19/xi-jinping-donald-trump-meet-863919

Most of the tariffs will likely be withdrawn by middle of next year. Not a prediction. Just stating the obvious when looking at the big picture. China is already blinking, despite their prior rhetoric.
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Blinking? I don't think so. What I do see is the US deficit under trump is skyrocketing because of his tax scam and that China has pulled back from financing our debt and that's causing rates to rise. BTW, a US stock market downfall is already in progress (the highs are in IMO) and China will have a much better leverage while a US stock market is coming down, the US deficit exploding and interest rates are rocketing. So IMO, in the end it will be all of the above that forces corrupt liar trump to pull back on the tariffs. BTW, the only people that are being hurt by trump's tariffs are the american consumers. Apple is NOT moving iphone manufacturing to the US and ebikes are still being made in China and are still being imported with a 20% higher price due to tariffs. The people who are being hurt are the US consumers and in addition the US consumers having to foot the bill for bailing out US farmers because of trump's stupidity. But as they say, those that don't learn from history are doomed to repeat it, and the only history book lying corrupt trump seems to have read, based on his ex-wife's account, is Hitler's speeches.

Donald Trump's ex-wife once said Trump kept a book of Hitler's speeches by his bed
https://www.businessinsider.com/don...-a-book-of-hitlers-speeches-by-his-bed-2015-8
Donald Trump's China tariffs will cost Ford $1 billion, CEO Jim Hackett says
https://www.usatoday.com/story/mone...donald-trump-ford-ceo-jim-hackett/1433220002/
As aid checks go out, farmers worry bailout won’t be enough
https://www.apnews.com/408f46201c11437ba9a8bac705f16cb7
 
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If the Chinese are blinking, they are thinking. They are one of the bigger bankers for our government. They are cunning enough to gain the upper hand, and are willing to give Trump a faux victory lap. Americans will pay the tariffs which are merely a federal income tax on the Chinese products. Over the long haul it may be better to shake out the Chinese ebike companies that do not respond to customer needs that can cast a shadow on the entire ebike industry.
 
Deleted Member 4210 said:
This may surprise a lot of people, but China has been suffering mightily due to the Trump tariff's. Their economy was already in a massive tail spin before the tariff's, and their stock market getting hammered, which made Trump's timing even better. (as far as leverage). That's why (strategically) he just piled on, announcing more and more.

Now China is going to come to the table to begin talks...end of November. The Yuan is also taking a major beating. Making any imports to their own country VERY expensive for them. While our dollar is staying strong, sort of blunting the impact of tariffs to us. (you really haven't seen that many ebike firms raising their prices now, have you ?)

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/19/xi-jinping-donald-trump-meet-863919

Most of the tariffs will likely be withdrawn by middle of next year. Not a prediction. Just stating the obvious when looking at the big picture. China is already blinking, despite their prior rhetoric.
Click to expand...
Little chance China will blink. They have massive account surpluses (vs the US massive debt/deficits - ballooning to over $1T this year under Trump's tax cuts for the rich) and just set a record trade surplus with the US despite The Orange Blowhard's rhetoric. They've always been willing to devalue the Yuan to keep a competitive trade advantage - it's a feature of their economic policy, not a bug.

Where a devalued Yuan is hurting, is in US real estate, which has seen marked decline in Chinese buyers (giving much needed relief to overheated west coast markets)
 
Deleted Member 4210 said:
Most of the tariffs will likely be withdrawn by middle of next year. Not a prediction. Just stating the obvious when looking at the big picture. China is already blinking, despite their prior rhetoric.
Click to expand...
Yes, it's a prediction. It's 100.0000000000% a prediction. The reality is no one knows, and there are many articles that speculate little will happen in the Nov talks (written by subject matter experts, not bike salesmen).

It's also blatant political spin ("which made Trump's timing even better"), right before the midterms. Please keep politics off this board!
 
MisterM said:
China has been "officially" reporting ~7% growth for many years - but the number is pure fiction - nobody believes it - just a nice round number they like to throw out.
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I guess that is similar to the Q2 US GDP of 4.2% due to the one time US soybean (and other) exports to get infront of the tit for tat trump tariffs. So I expect that 4.2% in Q2 to implode down some -25% in Q3 as most of those US farmer exports have gone bye bye and instead the US tax payer is footing the bill by bailing them out to the tune of $12 billion plus interest (Q3 GDP coming out October 26 at 8:30am EST)... BTW, the daily cost of interest payments on our debt/deficit has gone up 30% from last year to almost $2 billion PER DAY. Another 1-2% in interest hikes (which IMO they are coming) and we'll be looking at $1 Trillion dollars PER YEAR in just interest payments alone. And that is how you end up with a banana republic.
 
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Deleted Member 4210 said:
This may surprise a lot of people, but China has been suffering mightily due to the Trump tariff's. Their economy was already in a massive tail spin before the tariff's, and their stock market getting hammered, which made Trump's timing even better. (as far as leverage). That's why (strategically) he just piled on, announcing more and more.

Now China is going to come to the table to begin talks...end of November. The Yuan is also taking a major beating. Making any imports to their own country VERY expensive for them. While our dollar is staying strong, sort of blunting the impact of tariffs to us. (you really haven't seen that many ebike firms raising their prices now, have you ?)

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/19/xi-jinping-donald-trump-meet-863919

Most of the tariffs will likely be withdrawn by middle of next year. Not a prediction. Just stating the obvious when looking at the big picture. China is already blinking, despite their prior rhetoric.
Click to expand...

1) Chinese stock market.
The Chinese stock market serves a different function than the US one and the effects there have little-to-no bearing on the overall economy -- unlike the US.

Their stock market has almost no impact on their economy by design which is why China easily weathered the 2008 downturn. Sure, they got hit, but they didn't get hit like the majority of western countries and their economy roared back to life faster and more ferociously than ours did by a large margin.

2) Yuan value
China intentionall devalues the yuan to keep prices down. They have faced accusations from pretty much every other company regarding this issue for years and do nothing because it's in their interest to keep their currency as is.


3) ebike prices
Is this a joke? Yes, I've 100% seen the prices of ebikes go up from pretty much every single manufacturer and reseller.

Bored with all of you right-wing thumpers praising tariffs and suggesting theyre doing anything of value besides taxing us.

Where do you suppose all the tariffs dollars are going? Are they being put to use somewhere beneficial or are they instead being used to bail out farmers in a massive aid package to offset the costs incurred by these same tariffs? Trump raised prices, screwed us all, and is using our pockets to bail everyone out from his mistakes.

More GOP shill talking points.
 
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I thought this was an ebike forum, not a platform that inspires political drama and differences. I can get that if I turn on the news. Political criticism from any side should not find its place on this forum. I prefer to talk about ebikes here.
 
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