How the Game Works - CF 101

[George S.]

It's the Alibike plus Crowdfund Revolution

1) Find a bike

http://czhlclbj.en.alibaba.com/prod...t_mountain_electric_bike_36V_350W_e_bike.html

2) Set up a Kickstarter

https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/212162365/spark-a-truly-affordable-fully-equipped-electric-b

3) Spin an interesting yarn about how you developed a bike:

In 2012, a group of young professionals got together with the aspiration of creating positive sustainable change in the world. With a few projects in mind, revolutionizing the way people went about their daily transport was the priority.

Shocke Bikes was founded in 2014 with the goal of bringing affordable high quality electric bicycles to North America. Shocke Bikes imagines communities where people of all abilities feel comfortable traveling around and exploring their city by bicycle. We want cycling to be a fun activity to a wide range of people, regardless of age, ability and gender.


To me, it just looks like a few clicks on Alibaba. Plus a rack. Not a lot of work in development. Two years? Really?

It would be more honest to say: "We found this bike on Alibaba and we're marking it up a ton, and making some money on shipping, but you are still getting a decent deal and we will at least look at the bikes before we send them to you."

So now, anyone who does a KS or IGG with an Alibike will face this situation. Why tell us a story when someone with a half hour of free time can bust you? No wonder the phony media stuff from Yahoo was so valuable to that other guy.

Why not just say you are an importer, you're in it for the money, but you have some scruples? The problem with Flykly was that they had to do some real research and development. The problem with this kind of thing is that it's just a pure import without much else.

Who needs the flexibility of a development company when you are just importing something? It's still the whole pledge thing, the lack of any accountability, when they know exactly what they have, and where they can get it. It's like you say you are 'developing' the Slurpee and then you just go buy some at 7/11.

 

[Mike leroy]

It's the Alibike plus Crowdfund Revolution

1) Find a bike

http://czhlclbj.en.alibaba.com/prod...t_mountain_electric_bike_36V_350W_e_bike.html

2) Set up a Kickstarter

https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/212162365/spark-a-truly-affordable-fully-equipped-electric-b

3) Spin an interesting yarn about how you developed a bike:

In 2012, a group of young professionals got together with the aspiration of creating positive sustainable change in the world. With a few projects in mind, revolutionizing the way people went about their daily transport was the priority.

Shocke Bikes was founded in 2014 with the goal of bringing affordable high quality electric bicycles to North America. Shocke Bikes imagines communities where people of all abilities feel comfortable traveling around and exploring their city by bicycle. We want cycling to be a fun activity to a wide range of people, regardless of age, ability and gender.


To me, it just looks like a few clicks on Alibaba. Plus a rack. Not a lot of work in development. Two years? Really?

It would be more honest to say: "We found this bike on Alibaba and we're marking it up a ton, and making some money on shipping, but you are still getting a decent deal and we will at least look at the bikes before we send them to you."

So now, anyone who does a KS or IGG with an Alibike will face this situation. Why tell us a story when someone with a half hour of free time can bust you? No wonder the phony media stuff from Yahoo was so valuable to that other guy.

Why not just say you are an importer, you're in it for the money, but you have some scruples? The problem with Flykly was that they had to do some real research and development. The problem with this kind of thing is that it's just a pure import without much else.

Who needs the flexibility of a development company when you are just importing something? It's still the whole pledge thing, the lack of any accountability, when they know exactly what they have, and where they can get it. It's like you say you are 'developing' the Slurpee and then you just go buy some at 7/11.

I doubt they stick around for very long. Nobody likes to be taken for a ride -- pun intended.

 

[wa5]

I don't mind the idea of crowd funding for a genuinely new idea, But to use it when the only new idea is "I want to start a business without getting a loan or putting any of my assets (if they actually have assets) ... on the line for it... " well I don't think that's why the whole idea was started...

Most of my friends that have their own businesses have their homes on the line, if they cant deliver their product or their business tanks for some other reason, the bank gets their home, their car, and whatever else they have.. end the other creditors get whats left...

with the crowd funding business model, the entrepreneur takes no risks, the buyers take all the risks... it doesn't sit well with me.

 

[JoePah]

Gotta love these startups... Instead of guessing how many bikes you think you can sell, get financing and sweat the middleman and retailers biting, just bypass that whole mess and go direct to the customer who pays in advance.

Just a great way to start a business.

 

[wa5]

spread a little risk over all the customers... hopefully even if it does go belly up, no one will bother chasing you for $500

 

[Mike leroy]

Does social status drive the phenomena? In effect, I am cool because I got in first. See what a great deal I got. By getting in on the ground floor.

If you do not understand eBikes, the odds are you will not get much value, if any. Uncertainty does not seem to enter into the picture. People are gambling their money on a poor bet. Why accept such risk?

Are the potential gains worth $1000-$1500 of bicycle? I think you get in bicycle value exactly what you pay for.

These people might be impulsive, but they are not stupid. They are willing to pay for something more than just the eBike.

 

[JoePah]

Up to this point ebike manufacturers and retailers have gotten it wrong.. That's why there's only 150,000 ebikes sold in this country every year.

Sondors bike isn't just cheap, because there have been and still are cheap eBikes out there, it is stylish and represents a lifestyle image of a cool beach bum.

Question is will anybody else catch on?

 

[George S.]

It's interesting what Alibaba is doing with their money, and they got billions from the massive US stock offering:

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (NASDAQ: BABA) will start to offer cloud-based services in the United States. These services are the cornerstone of the recovery of International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE: IBM) and critical to future sales at America’s largest tech companies, which include Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) and Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN). Alibaba has unusual resources. It is the largest e-commerce company in China, and it is bristling with cash from its recent initial public offering.

Read more: Alibaba Group Holding to Offer Cloud Services in US (NASDAQ: BABA) - 24/7 Wall St. http://247wallst.com/apps-software/...challenging-huge-us-tech-firms/#ixzz3TQxVubHi
Follow us: @247wallst on Twitter | 247wallst on Facebook

 

[George S.]

Up to this point ebike manufacturers and retailers have gotten it wrong.. That's why there's only 150,000 ebikes sold in this country every year.

Sondors bike isn't just cheap, because there have been and still are cheap eBikes out there, it is stylish and represents a lifestyle image of a cool beach bum.

Question is will anybody else catch on?

There is a question of whether you should drop ship bikes and shift everything to the new owner. That part of the Sondo model is very sketchy. There's the warranty claim that SS made, and never seems to show up on the site. And the lovely Storm Troopers over there on the Comments section.

People have had this illusion that the ebike industry isn't mostly Chinese. How it gets done, how people assure quality, varies. When you get to the expensive stuff, some of it is done in Europe. The industry would love to make the ST2 the future, but it is just as likely that Sondo is the future, even if the bike crashes and burns (symbolically).

If Sondo knows the manufacturing in China, he may have a real edge. In other words, maybe he can get things done with more quality, or at a lower cost, etc, than some guys who think they will flip Alibikes. But Sondo skated around the drop ship issue, the fact there's a brand but no company. If people get bikes, they may find this is a hidden cost. I don't know who is running the show over there. Sometimes these things fly apart, doubly so because Storm will take the heat.

To me, this campaign has shaken things up. If we start to see basic bikes coming in, with no marketing crap, the $800 bike is around the corner. Batteries have to get cheaper. That means a $500 bike in 2-3 years. I'm talking a $250 Bikes Direct bike with a hub motor and a 36/10 battery.

 

[Mike leroy]

There is a question of whether you should drop ship bikes and shift everything to the new owner. That part of the Sondo model is very sketchy. There's the warranty claim that SS made, and never seems to show up on the site. And the lovely Storm Troopers over there on the Comments section.

People have had this illusion that the ebike industry isn't mostly Chinese. How it gets done, how people assure quality, varies. When you get to the expensive stuff, some of it is done in Europe. The industry would love to make the ST2 the future, but it is just as likely that Sondo is the future, even if the bike crashes and burns (symbolically).

If Sondo knows the manufacturing in China, he may have a real edge. In other words, maybe he can get things done with more quality, or at a lower cost, etc, than some guys who think they will flip Alibikes. But Sondo skated around the drop ship issue, the fact there's a brand but no company. If people get bikes, they may find this is a hidden cost. I don't know who is running the show over there. Sometimes these things fly apart, doubly so because Storm will take the heat.

To me, this campaign has shaken things up. If we start to see basic bikes coming in, with no marketing crap, the $800 bike is around the corner. Batteries have to get cheaper. That means a $500 bike in 2-3 years. I'm talking a $250 Bikes Direct bike with a hub motor and a 36/10 battery.

I read Court's review of the SSR Sand Viper . The Viper Seems like a better deal than the Sonder's at MSRP price. Is anyone familiar with the SSR business model? I had never heard of SSR before.

 

[George S.]

Great point. I think this is a question Court may have to ask. Where do they get the bikes? Do they know about the CPSC regs, etc?

 

[Mike leroy]

Great point. I think this is a question Court may have to ask. Where do they get the bikes? Do they know about the CPSC regs, etc?

Yes, SSR sell scooters and motorcycles. They have four dealerships in the SF Bay Area. They have another bike that is more interesting to me http://www.ssrmotorsports.com

 

[teenmonk]

It's the Alibike plus Crowdfund Revolution

1) Find a bike

http://czhlclbj.en.alibaba.com/prod...t_mountain_electric_bike_36V_350W_e_bike.html

2) Set up a Kickstarter

https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/212162365/spark-a-truly-affordable-fully-equipped-electric-b

3) Spin an interesting yarn about how you developed a bike:

In 2012, a group of young professionals got together with the aspiration of creating positive sustainable change in the world. With a few projects in mind, revolutionizing the way people went about their daily transport was the priority.

Shocke Bikes was founded in 2014 with the goal of bringing affordable high quality electric bicycles to North America. Shocke Bikes imagines communities where people of all abilities feel comfortable traveling around and exploring their city by bicycle. We want cycling to be a fun activity to a wide range of people, regardless of age, ability and gender.


To me, it just looks like a few clicks on Alibaba. Plus a rack. Not a lot of work in development. Two years? Really?

It would be more honest to say: "We found this bike on Alibaba and we're marking it up a ton, and making some money on shipping, but you are still getting a decent deal and we will at least look at the bikes before we send them to you."

So now, anyone who does a KS or IGG with an Alibike will face this situation. Why tell us a story when someone with a half hour of free time can bust you? No wonder the phony media stuff from Yahoo was so valuable to that other guy.

Why not just say you are an importer, you're in it for the money, but you have some scruples? The problem with Flykly was that they had to do some real research and development. The problem with this kind of thing is that it's just a pure import without much else.

Who needs the flexibility of a development company when you are just importing something? It's still the whole pledge thing, the lack of any accountability, when they know exactly what they have, and where they can get it. It's like you say you are 'developing' the Slurpee and then you just go buy some at 7/11.

George,

Your comments are right on the money! These guys are basically rebranding an existing product from overseas with a cool paint job, adding on a few bike accessories, and calling their own.

The bike on KS is currently going for $999 and shipping is roughly another $200. Just for fun, I visited Alibaba yesterday and contacted one of the vendors. I asked for a quotation for 1 bike (exact identical specs without paint job or accessories) shipped to USA by air. They quoted me $680 for bike, $200 for not meeting 20/pc quota, and an additional $650 for shipping by air. That comes out to $1530 before taxes. I know if I had chosen to ship by sea, it will be much cheaper, but then I'll have to deal with all the paperwork and possible additional tariff/taxes..etc.

It's very clever what those guys are doing. Crowdfund an existing bike and use backer's money to fulfill an order that will allow them the bike at cheapest cost without any money out of their pockets. From an individual point of view looking to just get one bike, doesn't it make sense to bite the bullet and contribute to their KS so I can get the bike at a cost I will never be able to on my own?

Your thoughts?

 

[Mike leroy]

On my last run to my local store, I spoke with a former eBike owner. He is very fit. The eBike only helped for short trips, not commutes over 5 miles. He felt A 10kW Honda PCX scooter is most appropriate for suburban hills in the 10% to 15% grade range. The Honda PCX is highway worthy and sells under $4000.

The lower end, Rukus sells for $2800 and gets 114mpg!

What is wrong with this picture? A decent Euro bike costs about $4000. The conclusion most people reach is the ebikes are unbelievably overpriced.

Sooner or later a big Japanese company will start importing quality, Chinese eBikes at a reasonable, competitive cost. Once the Honda, Yahama, whoever, sticks their label on a Chinese bike, they will start selling in much higher volumes.

 

[Lenny]

On my last run to my local store, I spoke with a former eBike owner. He is very fit. The eBike only helped for short trips, not commutes over 5 miles. He felt A 10kW Honda PCX scooter is most appropriate for suburban hills in the 10% to 15% grade range. The Honda PCX is highway worthy and sells under $4000.

The lower end, Rukus sells for $2800 and gets 114mpg!

What is wrong with this picture? A decent Euro bike costs about $4000. The conclusion most people reach is the ebikes are unbelievably overpriced.

Sooner or later a big Japanese company will start importing quality, Chinese eBikes at a reasonable, competitive cost. Once the Honda, Yahama, whoever, sticks their label on a Chinese bike, they will start selling in much higher volumes.

This is how some of the nascent industries work, Mike. Sad state of affairs.

 

[Ann M.]

This is how some of the nascent industries work, Mike. Sad state of affairs.

It's called Volume! Massive volume of production, so cost per unit goes down; that's partly why the Honda Ruckus and product from major manufacturers can come at a lower price. If there were only 150K total ebikes sold in the US in 2014 (and that is probably a generous number) realize that there were probably that many of the Honda scooters sold and that's just one model of one brand.

 

[Mike leroy]

It's called Volume! Massive volume of production, so cost per unit goes down; that's partly why the Honda Ruckus and product from major manufacturers can come at a lower price. If there were only 150K total ebikes sold in the US in 2014 (and that is probably a generous number) realize that there were probably that many of the Honda scooters sold and that's just one model of one brand.

Do you think the Grace One.15 is performant with the 10kW honda PCX ?

The Grace One.15 is scheduled for Sept. 2015. Check out these specs:
gearbox: Pinion P1.9 (crank only, no cassette needed)
Weight ca. 31 kg
Battery 15,6 Ah / 718 Wh (Range Extender: 23,4 Ah / 1076 Wh)
Torque 55 Nm
Support Levels 3 Modi Eco, City, Sport
Controller Electrical System by Eltronic AG
Fork Grace Rigid Fork, Rock Shox Domain RC
Shifting system Pinion P1.9
Engine 2000 W Ultra Motor
Drive Gates Carbon Drive
Braking system Magura MT 4
Tires Schwalbe Crazy Bob 26″
Front light Grace developed Light System/front light LUMOTEC IQ Cyo E
Back light LED Backlight
Options carrier set
Range max. 60 km* (Range extender: 90 km*)
Recommended sales price 4.999 €

 

[Lenny]

Do you think the Grace One.15 is performant with the 10kW honda PCX ?

The Grace One.15 is scheduled for Sept. 2015. Check out these specs:
gearbox: Pinion P1.9 (crank only, no cassette needed)
Weight ca. 31 kg
Battery 15,6 Ah / 718 Wh (Range Extender: 23,4 Ah / 1076 Wh)
Torque 55 Nm
Support Levels 3 Modi Eco, City, Sport
Controller Electrical System by Eltronic AG
Fork Grace Rigid Fork, Rock Shox Domain RC
Shifting system Pinion P1.9
Engine 2000 W Ultra Motor
Drive Gates Carbon Drive
Braking system Magura MT 4
Tires Schwalbe Crazy Bob 26″
Front light Grace developed Light System/front light LUMOTEC IQ Cyo E
Back light LED Backlight
Options carrier set
Range max. 60 km* (Range extender: 90 km*)
Recommended sales price 4.999 €

Grace has very little support in the USA. Availability of Grace 1.5 is unknown and the bike will be considered a motoped in many states.

 

[Lenny]

It's called Volume! Massive volume of production, so cost per unit goes down; that's partly why the Honda Ruckus and product from major manufacturers can come at a lower price. If there were only 150K total ebikes sold in the US in 2014 (and that is probably a generous number) realize that there were probably that many of the Honda scooters sold and that's just one model of one brand.

Having imported 300,000 pedal only bikes from China, we realize that US market for E-bikes is very small.

There are several other market forces other than "economies of scale" that push prices high and gives a false impression that E-bikes are very expensive. This drives customers away and eventually this leads to a vicious cycle of dull growth and high prices.

 

[Mike leroy]

Having imported 300,000 pedal only bikes from China, we realize that US market for E-bikes is very small.
View attachment 2463
There are several other market forces other than "economies of scale" that push prices high but it gives a false impression that E-bikes are very expensive. and drives customer away. Eventually this leads to a vicious cycle of dull growth and high prices.

I think the Grace One.15 could stimulate demand like the Sondors. I want to give the damn gas guzzlers a run for their gas-money. I want to shame the monster SUVs. I want to pedal 40+mph in the right hand share lane -- a 35mph lane -- on a 10% uphill grade. That will give eBikes an American, Muscle Car-like identity.

Do you happen to know the year of highest new car sales in the USA? I believe it was 1965. Why? Because people could buy an image at a relatively low price. The cars that sold well looked like racing cars, but did not actually cost very much or have great power.