Bike Boom Redux

Going to try a link to 1973
scientificamericanchart1973.png
 
TMH said:
The biggest potential 'benefit' out of the current pandemic is that more people are trying e-bikes for the first time. Before the pandemic, many of these folks wouldn't even have bothered looking at them, much less test riding.

The hook will be set in some. The e-bike will immediately cause some to forget why they gave up (acoustic) biking. They will find renewed joy in 'biking'. They will continue to use their e-bikes for recreation and maybe even some commuting and errand running.

There won't be an immediate widespread dumping of cars or total failure of mass transit systems. An aging population and folks who live in less favorable climates will continue to have a need for both. Others will just prefer them to biking, and others will not have the infrastructure available to them to make an e-bike commute safe or effective.

But at least there should be some level of a "steepening of the curve" (notice what I did there? 😆) towards alternative commuting, including the use of e-bikes.
Click to expand...
As the pandemic started and I could no longer go to the gym, I got out my traditional step over bike. Having had 2 knee replacements in 2016, this was the first time to try the bike again. I could not get on it as my knees could not bend enough. So I sold it on Craigslist. Looked alternatives and found a Specialized Roll, step thru. Test drove is and bought it. Then I found it had limitations for me. Four miles at the most on flat ground. 7-8 miles per hour. Got to a hill and had to walk it up. So I did a ton of research on E-Bikes, not sure how I became aware of them, maybe doing bike research on YOUTUBE. I was finding that they were in short supply and I wanted to test drive to see if they were for me. So I found three bike shops in Holmes County Ohio, where E-Bikes dominate. Test drove 3 at one shop, 2 at another. and finally settled on a Magnum Navigator. What a difference they make in speed, distance and hill climbing. I have never biked more in my life and looked forward to it. I can now travel the 3.5 miles to Pickleball courts and take my bike to dedicated bike/hike trails in the area to enjoy the peace and quiet of the outdoors. I will take it with me on future travels to the national parks out west as it seems to me to be a great way to visit beautiful places.
 
Life is a cycle. Ebikes will have a future as long as they are needed but how they get their energy will surely change. I’m waiting for super efficient solar powered bikes and other vehicles. I’m also awaiting the first down tube-shaped, self contained reactor cells.🤔
 
Dallant said:
Life is a cycle. Ebikes will have a future as long as they are needed but how they get their energy will surely change. I’m waiting for super efficient solar powered bikes and other vehicles. I’m also awaiting the first down tube-shaped, self contained reactor cells.🤔
Click to expand...
I'm still waiting for a flying car ...
 
I am thinking what we are seeing ,with bicycles and eBikes specifically, is not a "fad". Just looking at Yamahas new eMTB entry indicates they see serious sustained growth in the coming years and if Ravi is correct, a price point that will bring in a much larger market. We will emerge from Covid and the economy left in its wake but I think the landscape will be dramatically altered. eBikes will generate a slew of companies that will make riding comfortable, like Craig Vetter did with fairings. I think if the boom implodes it will be due to the fact the largest group who could benifit from eBikes (lower income and retired folk on SS mostly) will simply not have the money to afford the lower but dependable end of the product line. It will be up to market folk to decide on committing to a sustainable but scale oriented market or to simply cater to the more affluent who have the means to get bored and move on to a "new" fad.
 
GypsyTreker said:
I am thinking what we are seeing, with bicycles and eBikes specifically, is not a "fad". Just looking at Yamahas new eMTB entry indicates they see serious sustained growth in the coming years and if Ravi is correct, a price point that will bring in a much larger market. We will emerge from Covid and the economy left in its wake but I think the landscape will be dramatically altered. eBikes will generate a slew of companies that will make riding comfortable like Craig Vetter did with fairings.

I think if the boom implodes it will be due to the fact the largest group who could benefit from eBikes (lower income and retired folk on SS mostly) will simply not have the money to afford the lower but dependable end of the product line. It will be up to market folk to decide on committing to a sustainable but scale oriented market or to simply cater to the more affluent who have the means to get bored and move on to a "new" fad.
Click to expand...

I agree, and keep in mind that the affluent who get bored with their new EBikes will provide a good source of pre-owned inventory to the fixed income folks. Win-Win 😉
 
Amazing ... this thread is back on topic ...after earth day and flying cars ebikes might be boring ... so have most supply chains made it thru? Can folks expect to get ebikes for Christmas in the US?
 
FlatSix911 said:
I agree, and keep in mind that the affluent who get bored with their new EBikes will provide a good source of pre-owned inventory to the fixed income folks. Win-Win 😉
Click to expand...

Good point. I'm still waiting for some of that trickle down on high end guitar prices, so far, ain't happened. My overlook was not aimed at the affluent market as a negative, I believe in capitalism, but simply stating if some group is actually willing to look beyond the next quarter, there could be sustained growth and some service to a segment of society that might need it. A win-win :)
 
GypsyTreker said:
Ahhh Boys Life! I actually went to the World Jamboree at Valley Forge. Not to big of a stretch as far as miles traveled since I'm from Philly originally.
Click to expand...

National Jamboree in Moraine State Park, Pennsylvania, 1977 😉

National Scout Jamboree Through the Years

Join us as we outline every National Scout Jamboree, starting with the very first Silver Jubilee in 1935, right up to the 100th Anniversary of BSA in 2010.
www.stadriemblems.com www.stadriemblems.com
 
GypsyTreker said:
I am thinking what we are seeing ,with bicycles and eBikes specifically, is not a "fad". Just looking at Yamahas new eMTB entry indicates they see serious sustained growth in the coming years and if Ravi is correct, a price point that will bring in a much larger market. We will emerge from Covid and the economy left in its wake but I think the landscape will be dramatically altered. eBikes will generate a slew of companies that will make riding comfortable, like Craig Vetter did with fairings. I think if the boom implodes it will be due to the fact the largest group who could benifit from eBikes (lower income and retired folk on SS mostly) will simply not have the money to afford the lower but dependable end of the product line. It will be up to market folk to decide on committing to a sustainable but scale oriented market or to simply cater to the more affluent who have the means to get bored and move on to a "new" fad.
Click to expand...
Honestly in the boom days, this would be called a launch, not a fad. Momentum is really important to get volume and cashflow to survive. The crowd funding thing will help the whole launch to early adopters, but it's not a mass market. Compare Apple and IBM PC clones .
 
Art Deco said:
Honestly in the boom days, this would be called a launch, not a fad. Momentum is really important to get volume and cashflow to survive. The crowd funding thing will help the whole launch to early adopters, but it's not a mass market. Compare Apple and IBM PC clones .
Click to expand...

I totally agree. Crowd funding doesn't sit well with me. It reminds me of those RE developments in Baja Mexico where the Walled area and guard house where all that was up along with a sales office and artist renderings, lol. Things are changing rapidly. Last December we were a rarity riding in Fl, often being engaged in conversation. Once we got back to NC in April it was more of a "cool, eBike, I'm looking, how has yours performed"?. Now it's a " cool, waiting for mine to arrive". When we last rode Swamp Rabbit in SC there was a noticeable increase in folks our age on eBikes and at the "very socially distanced" outdoor cafe, enough to where you felt it was past the early adopter phase. I'm thinking the curve will be flatter then say Apple or Android watches and have way more depth. But hey, we'll see, right?
 
GypsyTreker said:
Last December we were a rarity riding in Fl, often being engaged in conversation. Once we got back to NC in April it was more of a "cool, eBike, I'm looking, how has yours performed"?. Now it's a " cool, waiting for mine to arrive". When we last rode Swamp Rabbit in SC there was a noticeable increase in folks our age on eBikes and at the "very socially distanced" outdoor cafe, enough to where you felt it was past the early adopter phase. I'm thinking the curve will be flatter then say Apple or Android watches and have way more depth. But hey, we'll see, right?
Click to expand...
I wanted an ebike 3 years ago after my first test ride but I’m really glad I waited a few years for the momentum to gather at Trek. I now have some old friends from Seattle picking my brain as they shop for ebikes because of my positive experiences.😎👍
My take is ebikes will continue to gain in popularity as basic ebike capabilities increase and cost goes down. The primary group for pricier ebikes will continue to be an older, retired, affluent group of consumers.
 
Last edited:
So what's the view from retailers and consumers? Are ebikes even a big deal in this boom? Attempt to link
www.bicycleretailer.com

Giant revenue hits $670 million in Q2; factories at full capacity

TAICHUNG, Taiwan (BRAIN) — Giant Group's second-quarter sales were NT$19.7 billion ($669.7 million) and its earnings per share were NT$4.06, a company record high.The company said strong demand for e-bikes in Europe and factory efficiencies help produce a gross margin of 21.7% and net income of...
www.bicycleretailer.com www.bicycleretailer.com
 
Art Deco said:
Trek supply line issues
www.npr.org

What Bikes Tell Us About A Changing Global Economy

COVID-19 and tariffs are reconfiguring trade. And companies are reevaluating how and where their products get made.
www.npr.org www.npr.org
Click to expand...

Spot-on analysis of the current bike boom... ;)

Trek had originally believed this recession would be typical — and that demand for bikes would crash. But on April 12, the people at Trek noticed a record number of visitors to their website and an enormous volume of orders from retailers. They knew then that this recession was going to be different.

The virus has made public transportation radioactive, so city dwellers have wanted alternative modes of transport. Gyms are closed, so fitness freaks have wanted to exercise outdoors. Young professionals with jobs are saving money by not going out, and they have extra cash to burn on durable goods. And everyone is mostly at home, bored as hell, looking for something to do.

"And the bicycle was sort of perfectly positioned to fit all those needs," Bjorling says.
 
Last edited:
FlatSix911 said:
Spot-on analysis of the current bike boom... ;)
Click to expand...

Yep. This past summer, I've had 2 friends buy their first e-bikes, both Gazelle Arroyos. Another is now using the Toronto e-bike subscription service Zygg ( the Model V with GM motor).

All are riding far more than they used to.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back