Hi Paul,
You make some great points and a convincing argument. I think we both know what we know, and we’re a little soft on the other side.
On the enforcement, I’m sure it’s coming. In eight months they will require any manufacturer or distributor in California (also Utah, where I live) to put a label on every bike. It will show the top speed, maximum watts, and Class of bike. This is all they need to discourage a retailer from selling outside the bounds of the law. You don’t want to be putting the wrong label on stuff, the Volkswagen scenario. No one says much about what a DIY shop has to do with a BBSHD. It is possible to set any wattage and speed. Under the new law, you can’t reset that without changing out and re-certifying that label. Sure, enforcement will be lax, but the trend is clear. If you mislabel a bike and something bad happens, you face daunting levels of liability. And reasonably, an ebike stops being a bike when the motor does xx % of the work, I think.
I’ve discussed ways to increase the market share of DIY with Eric. But Luna is running flat out right now, engines ahead full. He can’t keep batteries in stock. He doesn’t have much time to put more stuff in the online store, and it’s tough to do a lot of responses to inquiries. I think he was working all day on Christmas, putting together the kits he’s sold on his ‘exclusive’ mid-drive, the high power Cyclone motor. I belive the pre-order sales on the Cyclone were over 100 units. They have a bolt-on conversion kit for the Sondors coming out. I don't audit Luna's books, but they seem to be doing OK.
I tend to break things down. We have two different points of view. It’s kind of cool, when I think about it. I see an ebike, I see a motor and I see a battery. I like motors with controllers built in, like the BBS and the Goldens, makes it even simpler. The trend in batteries is for lower prices. I think this is obvious in the DIY market, which is why Eric tends to sell out his packs. And DIY motors are basically the huge BBS series, the Mac geared motors, and the Golden Magic series. I am so impressed with the GM Smart, the small Magic motor, I may have convinced Eric to carry them in his store. Love that motor. You like the integrated thing, including the programmed power integration, basically torque sensing PAS. I think it’s interesting, but it ruins that simplicity I want. DIY needs better PAS systems, but I’m sure they are coming. It’s the most requested feature, I think, and Bafang has torque sensing on the Max. Easy enough, I figure, to add to the BBS series.
Eric won’t get recognition in the industry partly because he sells performance stuff. Eric could sell batteries to folks who convert their bikes with a 700 watt Smart just as easily as he can to people building Cyclones. But he’s moving to bigger packs for those high power motors. They aren’t really saying what happens when a California vendor, DIY, sells 3,000 watt motors under the label rules. If someone makes a 3000 watt bike and hits someone, then what? Can they sue Eric? California can tell Eric he has to label his motors and they have to be locked down at the label numbers, not to exceed 750 watts. Who got to decide the max watts number, by the way? Anyone ask you?
The DIY motors are not shoddy. The BBS series are fine motors, but not refined. The Golden Smart motors are smooth as silk and quiet, but they need a decent PAS and the Chinese suppliers are not responsive. The Mac is a good motor, but noisier, and you never know with gears. The Mac has the best gears around, it seems, and the replacement sets are cheap enough. The Bafang geared hubs are nice enough motors, and the price reflects their volumes worldwide. No one is offering a laced Bafang motor in the US, but it would fill a market segment.
As I’ve said in my essay on DIY building:
https://www.electricbike.com/18-reasons-to-build-a-diy-ebike/
The warranty and service for a DIY are strategic. You might have parts handy. I’d like to see depot service for the BBS bikes, send it in and get a replacement. There are enormous resources for the BBS02 online. A Mac motor repair is probably new gears or just a replacement. The motor is relatively cheap. People could keep spares. A Golden Smart is around $300.
In the end, I think the low cost battery and low cost motors will shift things. I’ve seen two $250 battery packs in the last week, one from Lazer and another from Bike Scoozy. OK, so Bafang makes a nice hub motor, geared, for $100 wholesale. Take some $200 Amazon or Walmart bike, add these parts and you have a very decent ebike that could retail for $600. When does Walmart or Target or Costco do this? The problem for Sondors and DIY is that mass market retailing is at the point where they can claim a huge slice of e bikes.
DIY needs a cheap and programmable torque sensor package for their motors. DIY needs a rigorous set of instructions for bikes and motors, with a full parts list package. DIY has great motors. The Shark packs are nice. There are other things DIY can do for a more integrated look.
I like the bike I built for $900. It’s a Golden Smart and a basic China battery pack I had, on a $270 cruiser from BD. I suppose it is minimalist. Everything you need. You guys with your fancy bikes ignore the fact that you’ve left everyone behind. This is what Storm understands, of course.
Sometimes I think “Gee, I should go ride a Haibike or a Focus”. But, in the end, those bikes aren’t real to me. The motor is what changes the bike, makes it much more useable. You have to have a battery. Beyond that? I don’t know. It would be nice if you could sell a million or two of the most basic bikes. That would increase the awareness of e bikes and what they do. When you start off selling torque assist and $4,000 bikes?
