With 125% tariffs, will the e-bike market die?

[Chargeride]

If American and European consumers had rejected cheap goods , China would still be semi rural, we wouldn't be facing a war with them and we wouldnt all be addicted to smartphones.

We buy s*it we don't need, with money we don't have, to impress people we don't like." -- George Carlin

We've just grabbed British steel back off China and it seems they sabotaged the furnaces before they left.
They are trying to save them right now,
these are the days.

 

[Rás Cnoic]

The Tern CEO (cargo bikes) outlined the problem the other day. He has several containers of bikes en route from the Vietnam factory and was doing everything in his power to land and clear them in California before the 47% tariff date kicked in. His tariff bill would go from zero to $1M which is impossible to offset throughout the company, through his wholesalers and retailers, making the bikes impossibly expensive for customers. So he has talked to the factory owner in Vietnam halting all further orders and is discussing with staff and other bike companies what to do. Tern have a facility in Portugal for EU customers so he suspected he'd be using them short term for US market if things continue like this. If the containerships don't land in time he'll divert the cargo to Canada or Mexico as a last resort. But bottom line- a 10% increase they could possibly absorb the hit for customers, but 47% is impossible and to build bikes in US (Trumps wish) involves massive investment and years to implement with more expensive bikes the result. So god knows what Chinese factories with new, what is it now? 110%++? could possibly do.
The Vietnamese factory workers and bosses lose out. The US company workers/staff lose out and the US customers pay more or lose out.

So who the f*ck gains?

Madness.

 

[jabberwocky]

The problem is that so many bikes/ebikes "made" in other countries (EU, USA, other Asian countries) contain large quantities of parts made in china. And parts made in other countries are generally made with materials largely imported from China. If you massively tariff imported aluminum, for example, you're still driving up the prices of lots of purely-USA made bikes and bike parts. And with the way supply chains have globalized, its hard to tinker with one part of the system (chinese imports) without causing all kinds of wonkiness all sorts of other places.

If we really want to bring manufacturing back the US (I'm not convinced this is even all that important of a goal), random massive tariffs that change daily are not the way to do it. Building out factories and training workers is a job that takes years, if not decades. Nobody is going to make that investment when the regulatory environment is unstable and changing daily on one dudes whim.

So who the f*ck gains?

Madness.

The people who get advanced notice of when tarrifs hit and what they are targeted at and when they suddenly get "paused" wait not they aren't wait yes they are wait they doubled wait they got paused again. Incredible environment for insider trading. Lots of people in the administration getting super rich. Shame that money is coming out of all of our 401ks, but hey, its what we voted for.

 

[DDBB]

It's not what I voted for but sadly, the rest of the world assumes we all voted for trump

 

[Mr. Breeze]

If I'm not wrong, a vast majority of American voters chose Trump and Vance. After January 6th. Eat lead.

Anyway, I'm glad to picture the United States devoid of the Chinese "e-bike" scrap.

Not a vast majority. There are almost 245 million eligible voters in the U.S. A little more than 155 million voted in the 2024 election which equates to about 58% who are eligible actually voted. Margin of victory was about 1.5%

 

[Gionnirocket]

Fuckin' Various Others!... smh...

 

[Stefan Mikes]

It is still 77 million too many.

 

[Mr. Breeze]

It is still 77 million too many.

Agreed.

 

[Roamers]

Am I the only person to think the U.S. election system is outdated and not representing its voters?

It allows people in all states to make a difference. Without the current system, big city voters would have an advantage.

 

[Rien]

Ik ben en interesse het geheel aan het lezen als 76 jarige Nederlander maar het is moeilijke kost om te begrijpen hoe het nu echt zit. Wie heeft geijkt en wie ongelijk ?
Maar interessant hoe ieder zijn gevoel vertolkt maar wel allemaal fiets vrienden .
groet
Rien

 

[DDBB]

since when is 1.5% a "vast majority"??? Without republican gerry mandering, I wonder what the results would have been

 

[dblhelix]

since when is 1.5% a "vast majority"??? eat lead. Without republican gerry mandering, I wonder what the results would have been

I assume Stefan referred to the official outcome, which is the electoral college result.

 

[DDBB]

If Stefan isn't from here, he probably has no knowledge of gerry mandering as well which is simply political manipulation of electoral boundaries which skews results in favor of the GOP

 

[BlackHand]

If Stefan isn't from here, he probably has no knowledge of gerry mandering as well which is simply political manipulation of electoral boundaries which skews results in favor of the GOP

To be clear, gerrymandering is practiced by both parties where allowed by law (which is practically everywhere).

Gerrymandering and the winner take all electoral college(48 states) are IMO the 2 primary methods that the parties use to maintain their duopoly.

 

[Ebiker33]

What about secondary manufacturing or finishing, so maybe you import just the frame from China but build the Ebike with American components, is that doable?

 

[jabberwocky]

What about secondary manufacturing or finishing, so maybe you import just the frame from China but build the Ebike with American components, is that doable?

I mean, figuring out what this administrations policy actually is is sorta like interpreting a kindergartners crayon scribbles, but generally tariffs are on the imported [whatevers] manufacturing cost. So if the frame cost you $300 to have made in some Chinese factory, you'd pay $300+$300*whatever the tariff rate is today to actually import it. If you can find non-tarriffed stuff to hang on the frame you can then buy those and assemble it in the US. Worth noting that most countries (theoretically) still have some tariff in effect, just not as huge as the chinese one.

The reality is its pretty hard to find bike parts that aren't made overseas. You have options if you only want to avoid China (lots of companies manufacturing in various other SE Asian countries) but you don't have many options if you exclusively want to buy American stuff. Especially ebike-specific parts (batteries, motors, controllers). I don't know of anyone who manufactures any of that in the US. Maybe some DIY batteries are made here, but are almost certainly still using cells and BMS boards and such made in China.

 

[DDBB]

LOL.. To be clear,there was gerrymandering in only one Democratic state: Illinois, for a total advantage of 1.7 seats. But there was serious gerrymandering in six Republican states, for a total advantage of 13.2 seats. Republicans tried hard to gerrymander themselves into a majority and succeeded.

 

[sc00ter]

Everyone has a price in their head as to how much something is worth to them. My current motor scooter is made in Vietnam. I was willing to pay the price because I feel it was worth it to me. IF I was shopping now and the tariffs put even more on the OTD price I would have just passed on buying it. Yes the whole tariff war sucks, not because they're tariffs but how they're being applied at random.

Please remember that Trump is essentially a failed businessman man who lives off selling his trademarked name for others to use. The fact that hes playing businessman now is rather terrifying. Dumb people get dumb results. Musk isn't much smarter, he just got very lucky.

 

[rcdanner]

Trump IQ at least 156
Elon Musk IQ about 135
I'd like to be as wealthy as the 'failed businessman'.
Elon Musk, justy lucky to have become the richest man in the world, starting numerous industries. I'd like to have some of his 'luck'.
Why don't we see how these tariffs work for making America better with less export deficits. For sure, ebikes are gonna cost more.

 

[DDBB]

Oh yes, Americans are going to be so much better off with the tariffs, when exactly does "the golden age" start? RIght now, my golden age is seeing 20% losses in my retirement fund.