How hard do you negotiate for that eBike?

[George S.]

There are so many people looking for a battery breakthrough, mostly to store energy from solar panels in houses. The guess is that 2-3 years from now, the cost of packs will be around $100 a kwh, at least for the cells. For an ebike, that is $50 in parts, and a high quality assembly. Not much money. The 'price' now, retail, is more like $700.

I have a premium hub motor, a Mac. It's rated at 350 watts, but it will draw a lot of watts going up hills. I can put these motors on a basic bike, what you might buy online for $400 or less. Since I ride this bike every day, I am confident it is a 'premium' bike. It won't go up every hill, but every hill around here it handles. It doesn't need an autoshift. An autoshift would be ludicrous overkill. You can get very advanced pedal assist systems, easily programmable.

A wholesale price on this type of bike is around $600, with some battery advances. If ebikes in the US are ever going to be a volume business, it will be at this point.

The way ebikes are 'covered' (there is no real press), the constant focus is on European designs. Once you look at advances from China, basically, you see looming seismic shifts. On top of that battery tech will transform transport, probably shifting things into scooters and motorcycles anyway. You need about 10 kwh for a motorcycle, to give it range. If that is $1000 worth of parts, the electric motorcycle 'wins'. And the EV from Chevy isn't far behind.

It seems like the health aspect, the exercise aspect, has always been the overwhelming 'feature' of ebikes. That's why I ride. It is curious that the industry is pushing speed, because the e-motorcycle seems like the better choice there, as the power packs drop in price.

 

[pxpaulx]

@George S. you're right on target with that last post - one more evolutionary step in battery technology is going to push us to some interesting new transportation possibilities. Halve the weight and double the capacity and we'll be there - volume will follow that quickly and pricing will drop, all of which will inevitably help the consumer from a cost perspective.

 

[JoePah]

@George S. I'm with you George, except that I think the overall effect of advanced batteries and motors are downsize electric motors and batteries, to the point that an eBike is just a couple of hundred dollars more than a human powered only bike.

When that happens the seismic shift will occur, except that eBikes will become a lot more popular, rather than improved performance.. Just like when Auto transmissions own about 90% of the market today in vehicle sales.