E-bike long term strategy

[alloo]

Court,

Love your advocacy for ebikes. Thank You.

I want your opinion of ebike market and the long term viability of commuting on an ebike. As you know a recent study from Deilotte stated that ebikes are going to be exploding as far as a hybrid vehicle. The industry is split between Direct to consumer and traditional bicycle shops. I am not sure which model DTC or TBS will win, they're room for both. I also see DTC as having more price points and TBS as becoming the high end of the market? What are your thoughts?

How long are ebikes designed to last? 1 year? 3 years? 5 years? longer? What company in the ebike industry has the best parts and service plan for supporting their ebikes? Yamaha? Trek? Giant? Specialized? How do ebike manufacturer support their ebikes in Europe? Asia? Africa? The ebike industry is in its infancy in the US, but has existed in Europe and Asia for a long time? Yamaha is the only ebike maker that has it's own drive system. Yamaha makes great instruments and powersports. I know that Bosch has a long term plan for it's drives too. What about other companies?

Where is the industry going? I'm curious because I commute on my ebike about 9 months out of the year. I try to ride 3-4 days a week, 25 miles a day round trip. I live in Denver and am 55 years old. On a regular bicycle, I can get maintenance and support for a long time. E bikes I am not sure that the companies in the US has a long term service plan for their products. With ebike models being released/improved every 1-3 years. Do I need to buy a ebike every two to three years? Or like a regular bicycle or motorcycle can I own my ebike for a long time? How long will parts for my ebike be available?

What do you see? How do you see the industry evolving? I currently own two ebikes in the last year of riding a 2017 Raleigh Retroglide IE and a 2020 Blix Aveny. I started riding this past year because I want to be healthier, help the environment, and lose 100 lbs. On my Retroglide, my battery slides lose over sidewalk seams and potholes. I bought the Blix because I want to try both a Mid Drive and a hub drive.

The DTC model looks very good for a self service model, but what about for older people who don't necessarily have the time/skill/patience to work on their own ebikes? What is available for us that are on a limited income? The TBS bikes on average have a higher price points? TBS also don't have the knowledge of ebikes because some of the shops are biased towards analog bicycles. Ebikes are new.

Thank You Court for your advocacy of ebikes. My questions are important for the consumer and direction of the ebike industry? How are E-motorcycle shops dealing with the issues listed above? How is the E-Car industry dealing with the above issues?

Aloha,
Al

 

[Deacon Blues]

DTC ebikes save you money, but if a problem comes up while the bike is still under warranty what do you do? A good example of this is my Pedego Ridgerider, which I bought from a local Pedego dealer. Within the warranty period the motor and torque sensor failed and was replaced for free by the dealer. How would I have gotten the warranty work done if I had bought an ebike from a 'direct to you' company?

 

[AHicks]

DTC ebikes save you money, but if a problem comes up while the bike is still under warranty what do you do? A good example of this is my Pedego Ridgerider, which I bought from a local Pedego dealer. Within the warranty period the motor and torque sensor failed and was replaced for free by the dealer. How would I have gotten the warranty work done if I had bought an ebike from a 'direct to you' company?

With RAD, you call them up, they diagnose the issue, they may ask you to send pics to confirm something, then they send you the required parts. OR, you call somebody like Velofix.

 

[J.R.]

Court,

Love your advocacy for ebikes. Thank You.

I want your opinion of ebike market and the long term viability of commuting on an ebike. As you know a recent study from Deilotte stated that ebikes are going to be exploding as far as a hybrid vehicle. The industry is split between Direct to consumer and traditional bicycle shops. I am not sure which model DTC or TBS will win, they're room for both. I also see DTC as having more price points and TBS as becoming the high end of the market? What are your thoughts?

How long are ebikes designed to last? 1 year? 3 years? 5 years? longer? What company in the ebike industry has the best parts and service plan for supporting their ebikes? Yamaha? Trek? Giant? Specialized? How do ebike manufacturer support their ebikes in Europe? Asia? Africa? The ebike industry is in its infancy in the US, but has existed in Europe and Asia for a long time? Yamaha is the only ebike maker that has it's own drive system. Yamaha makes great instruments and powersports. I know that Bosch has a long term plan for it's drives too. What about other companies?

Where is the industry going? I'm curious because I commute on my ebike about 9 months out of the year. I try to ride 3-4 days a week, 25 miles a day round trip. I live in Denver and am 55 years old. On a regular bicycle, I can get maintenance and support for a long time. E bikes I am not sure that the companies in the US has a long term service plan for their products. With ebike models being released/improved every 1-3 years. Do I need to buy a ebike every two to three years? Or like a regular bicycle or motorcycle can I own my ebike for a long time? How long will parts for my ebike be available?

What do you see? How do you see the industry evolving? I currently own two ebikes in the last year of riding a 2017 Raleigh Retroglide IE and a 2020 Blix Aveny. I started riding this past year because I want to be healthier, help the environment, and lose 100 lbs. On my Retroglide, my battery slides lose over sidewalk seams and potholes. I bought the Blix because I want to try both a Mid Drive and a hub drive.

The DTC model looks very good for a self service model, but what about for older people who don't necessarily have the time/skill/patience to work on their own ebikes? What is available for us that are on a limited income? The TBS bikes on average have a higher price points? TBS also don't have the knowledge of ebikes because some of the shops are biased towards analog bicycles. Ebikes are new.

Thank You Court for your advocacy of ebikes. My questions are important for the consumer and direction of the ebike industry? How are E-motorcycle shops dealing with the issues listed above? How is the E-Car industry dealing with the above issues?

Aloha,
Al

It won't answer all your questions, but Court has a book:

Amazon.com

And this video:

 

[EdC]

Court,

Love your advocacy for ebikes. Thank You.

I want your opinion of ebike market and the long term viability of commuting on an ebike. As you know a recent study from Deilotte stated that ebikes are going to be exploding as far as a hybrid vehicle. The industry is split between Direct to consumer and traditional bicycle shops. I am not sure which model DTC or TBS will win, they're room for both. I also see DTC as having more price points and TBS as becoming the high end of the market? What are your thoughts?

How long are ebikes designed to last? 1 year? 3 years? 5 years? longer? What company in the ebike industry has the best parts and service plan for supporting their ebikes? Yamaha? Trek? Giant? Specialized? How do ebike manufacturer support their ebikes in Europe? Asia? Africa? The ebike industry is in its infancy in the US, but has existed in Europe and Asia for a long time? Yamaha is the only ebike maker that has it's own drive system. Yamaha makes great instruments and powersports. I know that Bosch has a long term plan for it's drives too. What about other companies?

Where is the industry going? I'm curious because I commute on my ebike about 9 months out of the year. I try to ride 3-4 days a week, 25 miles a day round trip. I live in Denver and am 55 years old. On a regular bicycle, I can get maintenance and support for a long time. E bikes I am not sure that the companies in the US has a long term service plan for their products. With ebike models being released/improved every 1-3 years. Do I need to buy a ebike every two to three years? Or like a regular bicycle or motorcycle can I own my ebike for a long time? How long will parts for my ebike be available?

What do you see? How do you see the industry evolving? I currently own two ebikes in the last year of riding a 2017 Raleigh Retroglide IE and a 2020 Blix Aveny. I started riding this past year because I want to be healthier, help the environment, and lose 100 lbs. On my Retroglide, my battery slides lose over sidewalk seams and potholes. I bought the Blix because I want to try both a Mid Drive and a hub drive.

The DTC model looks very good for a self service model, but what about for older people who don't necessarily have the time/skill/patience to work on their own ebikes? What is available for us that are on a limited income? The TBS bikes on average have a higher price points? TBS also don't have the knowledge of ebikes because some of the shops are biased towards analog bicycles. Ebikes are new.

Thank You Court for your advocacy of ebikes. My questions are important for the consumer and direction of the ebike industry? How are E-motorcycle shops dealing with the issues listed above? How is the E-Car industry dealing with the above issues?

Aloha,
Al

I bought my first ebike 11 years ago. I’m still ride it every day and I’m still using the original batteries. Some electric bikes last a long time. Ed

 

[Black47]

It won't answer all your questions, but Court has a book:

Amazon.com

And this video:

Thank you, that was very helpful.

 

[alloo]

I think that the Corvid-19 is causing a shift in bicycle industry. My local bike shop has closed. I read a few days ago and saw from Trek that they're selling bikes directly to customers. This shift is inevitable and I think permanent change. Bike shops will be more like parts, accessories and service centers from now on. Electra a Trek brand isn't doing the same. I know a few LBS that are open, and business is good for them. I did watch Court's video about the evolution of ebikes when it came out. Ebikes like electronics changes every two years. For rear hub driven ebikes, the more expensive derailers and cassettes are not needed as the motor takes wear off of the drive train. Another observation is that heavier components don't make as much of a difference on to riders on ebikes.

When you buy Shimano, you're buying quality components. It doesn't matter what marketing tier the derailer and cassette is, it will be reliable even if not using trigger shifters. The lower end stuff has been proven and the newer stuff is built to based on what was learned with the earlier equipment. It's all market segmentation. Just my $0.02. Be Healthy!

 

[kmccune]

I think Elon Musk has rocked the whole transportation industry,I have always wanted to buy a vehicle direct,I have never had extra money to pay for the various levels of handling, not to mention the crazy markups.
If everything goes well the next major vehicle I purchase may be my last( Hate me if you want- its a "Cybertruck"{ tired of oil changes and various fluids and gallons of gas cold weather startups)

 

[kmccune]

I think that the Corvid-19 is causing a shift in bicycle industry. My local bike shop has closed. I read a few days ago and saw from Trek that they're selling bikes directly to customers. This shift is inevitable and I think permanent change. Bike shops will be more like parts, accessories and service centers from now on. Electra a Trek brand isn't doing the same. I know a few LBS that are open, and business is good for them. I did watch Court's video about the evolution of ebikes when it came out. Ebikes like electronics changes every two years. For rear hub driven ebikes, the more expensive derailers and cassettes are not needed as the motor takes wear off of the drive train. Another observation is that heavier components don't make as much of a difference on to riders on ebikes.

When you buy Shimano, you're buying quality components. It doesn't matter what marketing tier the derailer and cassette is, it will be reliable even if not using trigger shifters. The lower end stuff has been proven and the newer stuff is built to based on what was learned with the earlier equipment. It's all market segmentation. Just my $0.02. Be Healthy!

If it works its good enough for me, reality shutdown my"has to be best syndrome".

 

[J.R.]

I think Elon Musk has rocked the whole transportation industry,I have always wanted to buy a vehicle direct,I have never had extra money to pay for the various levels of handling, not to mention the crazy markups.
If everything goes well the next major vehicle I purchase may be my last( Hate me if you want- its a "Cybertruck"{ tired of oil changes and various fluids and gallons of gas cold weather startups)

He's on the right path with the CT. I won't be trading my F150 for one just yet. For my own uses I'd prefer a true frame over a monocoque or unibody construction, but for many it will be more than enough. Maybe there's a CT-HD in the works

Given Ford's popularity in pickups I have to believe there's a EF150 on the drawing board.

 

[m@Robertson]

Just as there is room for all channels now for analog bikes, there will be the same channels for ebikes. As ebikes become more ubiquitous, local bike shops will lose their aversion to servicing them if they care to survive. I see this already happening in my urban community. Where once bike shops literally sneered at ebikes and would not touch them, now they are at least selling a pedelec or three that their purist owner can stomach to have on the sales floor. At the other end of the scale in today's market (vs. 2015 when I got into it) there are the shops that embraced ebikes early and now have a packed service department handling all manner of bicycles including ebikes, as well as a sales floor with multiple models and styles. Many shops are somewhere between those extremes. But compared to 6-7 years ago the local landscape is tilted heavily in the favor of ebike acceptance.

Add in to that mix the internet. Just like with analog bikes, there is a significant percentage of riders who can and choose to do their own work. I'm one of those and that includes spec'ing quality cycling parts for my bikes and assembling them frame-up, often as not.

It won't be a single path.

 

[theemartymac]

I agree there will be multiple streams for a long time. This market won't shrink anytime soon as we are living longer and healthier +50, and want to keep that freedom longer as well. Gas ain't getting any cheaper either (at least not in any Carbon Taxed countries). The younger modding circuit will always demand the cheapest DTC options and kits, as will a significant portion of the home mechanic crowd, but many of the older buyers will expect long-term shop support. Especially as tech advances and new designs become common like IGH systems and belt drives, etc. The big manufacturers will continue to try and lock down the technology, but I sense a 'right to repair' pushback will come down the line eventually. I know here in Canada there have been a few preliminary attempts to force the issue into Parliament, and there are several bills in process down in the US.

As for life, cheap bikes with poor parts are always lucky to last the life of the first battery, so <5yrs, but anything of quality should be good for 10yrs, or until the tech/parts cannot be conveniently replenished. I have a couple of conventional bikes that are 15-20 years old, and I'm just starting to struggle to find suspension parts, etc. It's not worth the cost to upgrade to new similar quality components, so they are nearing end of life in mainstream use.

And as soon as you think you know where the industry is going (so will many, many, other people), some innovative people/companies will use that tunnel vision to leverage a whole new position and approach. Either you think short-term and try to pace current demands (Which is a viable strategy if you can maximize costs and find the efficiencies hidden within the system - Think WalMart early on), or you push to the front of the pack and beat your own trail forcing the others to keep up (Think Apple late nineties - early iPhone/iPod days). I see it here with a few of the active builders and manufacturers who are clearly trying to create their own lane and are simply excited by the idea of "what can we do next?". It is very encouraging. The biggest risk in that sector is not having the business acumen to balance your creativity and drive.

 

[Catalyzt]

Just as there is room for all channels now for analog bikes, there will be the same channels for ebikes. As ebikes become more ubiquitous, local bike shops will lose their aversion to servicing them if they care to survive. I see this already happening in my urban community. Where once bike shops literally sneered at ebikes and would not touch them, now they are at least selling a pedelec or three that their purist owner can stomach to have on the sales floor. At the other end of the scale in today's market (vs. 2015 when I got into it) there are the shops that embraced ebikes early and now have a packed service department handling all manner of bicycles including ebikes, as well as a sales floor with multiple models and styles. Many shops are somewhere between those extremes. But compared to 6-7 years ago the local landscape is tilted heavily in the favor of ebike acceptance.

Add in to that mix the internet. Just like with analog bikes, there is a significant percentage of riders who can and choose to do their own work. I'm one of those and that includes spec'ing quality cycling parts for my bikes and assembling them frame-up, often as not.

It won't be a single path.

Yes, and I notice that my LBS is doing better than others because they are expanding their sales and service to include e-Bikes.

Their story changed a bit, too... a couple of months ago, they were discouraging me from getting a mid-drive, because hub drives were easier to work on. However, after I bought a mid drive (and paid them $150 to assemble it) I asked them if they knew where I could get it serviced if I had a problem.

"We're actually Shimano dealers," the owner replied with a chuckle. "Yeah, if it was something simple, we might be able to fix it here, though we'd probably send it out. Takes a while, but not that big a deal." I don't know whether that changed over the last two months, or if they're just so swamped they were steering people towards bikes that were easier to service. Or whether I got a different story from the owner than his main service guy, but I'm less worried about it.

 

[Asphalt Animal]

Just as there is room for all channels now for analog bikes, there will be the same channels for ebikes. As ebikes become more ubiquitous, local bike shops will lose their aversion to servicing them if they care to survive. I see this already happening in my urban community. Where once bike shops literally sneered at ebikes and would not touch them, now they are at least selling a pedelec or three that their purist owner can stomach to have on the sales floor. At the other end of the scale in today's market (vs. 2015 when I got into it) there are the shops that embraced ebikes early and now have a packed service department handling all manner of bicycles including ebikes, as well as a sales floor with multiple models and styles. Many shops are somewhere between those extremes. But compared to 6-7 years ago the local landscape is tilted heavily in the favor of ebike acceptance.

Add in to that mix the internet. Just like with analog bikes, there is a significant percentage of riders who can and choose to do their own work. I'm one of those and that includes spec'ing quality cycling parts for my bikes and assembling them frame-up, often as not.

It won't be a single path.

 

[fooferdoggie]

So far as far as I know only bosch still supports their oldest components.

 

[indianajo]

When you buy Shimano, you're buying quality components. It doesn't matter what marketing tier the derailer and cassette is, it will be reliable even if not using trigger shifters. The lower end stuff has been proven and the newer stuff is built to based on what was learned with the earlier equipment. It's all market segmentation. Just my $0.02.

I had a shimano 6 speed rear axle break under my enormous 180 lb weight. I don't jump curbs or onto picnic tables.
I had a shimano 7 speed rear axle come unscrewed and drop the balls on the road. I pushed the bike 4 miles home. There is no locknut on the bearing race, so it is good for the 500 miles a typical kid bike gets ridden before it rusts up. Mine was 2000 miles old. Beyond design life.
My shimano 8 speed sprocket axle has gone 6500 miles without incident. At some price point shimano attempts to deliver a quality product. I have a suspicion that all the different names of shimano 7 speed products have increasingly glitzier externals: and all the same unreliable axle+bearing design.

So far as far as I know only bosch still supports their oldest components.

Last year the ebike shop owner near Chicago now banned, reported that bosch was dropping parts support for their first generation of mid drive motors. No conversion bracket was offered to upgrade the owner to the next generation bike. Up to the owner to scrap his frame or find a competent welding shop, after the consumer produced the proper drawings of a conversion plate.

My long term strategy is to discard hubmotors batteries & controllers as they wear out, and find another that fits a 135 mm dropout. I built the battery mount, so external dimensions are not important. I cut off the ****ese battery connector that melted when I tried to solder it and installed .250 flag terminals or .157 bullet terminals that have been available through industrial suppliers for 60 years. 1st motor & controller trashed @ 4500 miles, 2nd into second thousand. Battery still working @ 6500 miles 3 1/3 years.