2020 to 1930 Stock Market Analogue

[Deleted member 4210]

They say history often rhymes, even if it never repeats exactly...

1929 is on the bottom. 2020 on the top. Note each of the distinct 4 highlighted analogous zones. And now the President has been diagnosed with Covid-19. The stock market is very likely going to (rather suddenly I dare say) discount some significant market uncertainty with that diagnosis. Like Trump or not, the stock market has actually been discounting a Trump re-election with considerable certainty. Until now ???... (buckle up, buttercup... could be a rocky ride from here on for awhile)

P.S. Image courtesy of Tim Knight at Slopeofhope.com
In case you don't recall reading about this in the history books, the stock market topped in 1929, only to have a very significant 'bounce' after a similarly steep crash to what we had earlier this year. But then it did not do too well after that 'bounce.'

 

[Art Deco]

Yep. I remember seeing a chart that looked a lot like that clear back in the 70s or 80s. Buffett ? said "Even a dead cat will bounce once." The implication was to wait for a second bounce before investing. Back then, you were supposed to be investing in the whole stock market, not just the half dozen tech companies that are supporting the rest of the market today. If anyone of them stumbles, investors will move their money to someplace else, if they haven't already.

As I understand it, Main Street and Wall Street have to be moving together, not in opposite directions, for a real recovery. We ain't getting there so far.

 

[FlatSix911]

They say history often rhymes, even if it never repeats exactly...
View attachment 67367

1929 is on the bottom. 2020 on the top. Note each of the distinct 4 highlighted analogous zones. And now the President has been diagnosed with Covid-19. The stock market is very likely going to (rather suddenly I dare say) discount some significant market uncertainty with that diagnosis. Like Trump or not, the stock market has actually been discounting a Trump re-election with considerable certainty. Until now ???... (buckle up, buttercup... could be a rocky ride from here on for awhile)

P.S. Image courtesy of Tim Knight at Slopeofhope.com
In case you don't recall reading about this in the history books, the stock market topped in 1929, only to have a very significant 'bounce' after a similarly steep crash to what we had earlier this year. But then it did not do too well after that 'bounce.'

Very interesting market comparison... I will take a wait and see approach until after the election.

The biggest issue is the uncertainty for counting the mail ballots and declaring a winner before New Years'!

 

[ChezCheese:)]

Buy solar. My solar stocks have been doing really well. They have recovered far better than the market at large.

And remember: although it is called "investing", in fact it is gambling. Except at an IPO, when you as an individual buy stock in Company A or B or XYZ, you are merely gambling that the share value will go up. The company does not actually get any of your money to work with. Never forget that the stock market is a gambling den.

 

[Marcela]

Stock market is the biggest pyramid scheme ever devised.

 

[john peck]

They say history often rhymes, even if it never repeats exactly...

View attachment 67367

1929 is on the bottom. 2020 on the top. Note each of the distinct 4 highlighted analogous zones. And now the President has been diagnosed with Covid-19. The stock market is very likely going to (rather suddenly I dare say) discount some significant market uncertainty with that diagnosis. Like Trump or not, the stock market has actually been discounting a Trump re-election with considerable certainty. Until now ???... (buckle up, buttercup... could be a rocky ride from here on for awhile)

P.S. Image courtesy of Tim Knight at Slopeofhope.com
In case you don't recall reading about this in the history books, the stock market topped in 1929, only to have a very significant 'bounce' after a similarly steep crash to what we had earlier this year. But then it did not do too well after that 'bounce.'

So many people can not be satisfied with enough & so wind up losing what they have in the struggle to get more. Greed is deadlier
than C-19 by far & causes far more suffering.

 

[Law]

Can’t compare the 2 periods. In the 20s, there was zero liquidity. Very few had real $$$.

Trillions of dollars at play now( because there are no fixed income options at 1% int) with a Majority of the population in the market either singularly or in a 401k.

 

[indianajo]

Difference between 1929 & 2020, the disaster was well reported in 2020 two months before the stock market crash. I sold 1/3 of my holdings in early January, did not need a CIA report to see the writing on the wall. Death rate was 6:10000 in Wuhan, about 1000 times worse than the flu. No way that virus was going stay in Wuhan. Reports were on bbcnews.com, not facebook or twitter.

 

[Law]

Difference between 1929 & 2020, the disaster was well reported in 2020 two months before the stock market crash. I sold 1/3 of my holdings in early January, did not need a CIA report to see the writing on the wall. Death rate was 6:10000 in Wuhan, about 1000 times worse than the flu. No way that virus was going stay in Wuhan. Reports were on bbcnews.com, not facebook or twitter.

Well reported? Seriously? Even if we knew what was happening in China we could never had reported it “well”.
How could you possibly trust any sort of death rate from Wuhan?

Reports from BBC News accurate for viral news?
A lot of assumptions here for everyone as if we have a pandemic guidebook for this particular disease. It’s all bullshit as Sars and H1N1 all just faded. and we had no idea that was going to happen.

 

[GypsyTreker]

My biggest fear of another crash is I'll have to listen to all those idiots talk about how rich they were before the crash as they drive away in a Hertz Used Cars Lincoln Town Car.....gag

 

[Taylor57]

Invest in Ebike repair companies!

 

[indianajo]

. It’s all bullshit as Sars and H1N1 all just faded. and we had no idea that was going to happen.

I had H1N1, it was a very painful month. 6 weeks later the vaccine was available to ordinary people. My arm didn't even get sore from that vaccine. Already immune.
As far as believing most of what I see on bbcnews.com, just go ahead and believe what the Russians feed you on facebook. Russians love us for our gullibility. WSJ gets the facts straight most of the time, but I hate giving money to R. Murdock, owner of News of the World.

 

[Art Deco]

I had H1N1, it was a very painful month. 6 weeks later the vaccine was available to ordinary people. My arm didn't even get sore from that vaccine. Already immune.
As far as believing most of what I see on bbcnews.com, just go ahead and believe what the Russians feed you on facebook. Russians love us for our gullibility. WSJ gets the facts straight most of the time, but I hate giving money to R. Murdock, owner of News of the World.

I just go by presence or absence or ads . Just scroll CBS, FOX, CNN etc. for "the spin of the week" .They exist to sell space for ads, all the rest is filler. You might get truth from NPR or BBC .. the " $40 donation coffee cups" model as well as WSJ, but most do report finance better than health.

 

[Art Deco]

My biggest fear of another crash is I'll have to listen to all those idiots talk about how rich they were before the crash as they drive away in a Hertz Used Cars Lincoln Town Car.....gag

Same damn towncar they owned, now on a month to month lease ...