PSA - China energy crisis affecting production !

[pushkar]

All

This announcement affects Watt Wagons, and also potentially all other manufacturers trying to get bikes produced.

Watt Wagons works directly with manufacturers of components that go on our bikes. Over the past couple of weeks we have been notified by multiple manufacturers that there are significant cuts to production capacity due to a looming energy crisis in China
These significant cuts to energy (electricity availability) are estimated to last from Oct 1, 2021, to March 31, 2022.

What does this mean ?
1. Most production capacity is less than halved (3 days instead of 7 days)
2. Affects a LOT of different sectors that in turn affect bikes (think brake hose manufacturer not being able to produce enough hose to make brakes, ditto for any welding, CNC etc)
Reference :

China limits power in at least 20 provinces amid energy crisis

China has extended power restrictions to at least 20 provinces and regions as it struggles to cope with the power shortage in its north-eastern region.

www.power-technology.com

China Power Outages Pose New Threat to Supplies of Chips and Other Goods

Coal shortages and efforts to control energy consumption make it harder for Chinese factories to operate.

www.wsj.com

Moving forward, Watt Wagons in particular will be affected in the following categories

1. Motors : Bafang has notified of extended supply times- from 60 days to 120 days.
2. Brakes : We have significant volume outside china, so we estimate around 20% of our supply will be affected
3. Tools and fixtures : any m3/4//5/6/ etc bolts, CNC parts
4. Handebars and Stems : We have switched to a Taiwan based manufacturer for our upcoming products. Legacy FSA , Surly Moloko etc will be affected. We have stock to cover us though Jan / Feb.

We are actively working to reduce our dependence on a singe source / country. At the moment our bikes have components from around 15 different countries
1. Taiwan - 25%
2. China - 25%
3. Germany - 10%
4. USA - 10%
5. Norway - 5%
6. Portugal - 5%
7. Thailand - 5%
8. India - 5%
9. Canada / Mexico / Vietnam / etc round out the rest.

We are well diversified, so the impact is limited. However we want to give everyone a heads up of additional squeeze in the supply chains as we move forward over the next 6-12 months. Watt Wagons will calibrate our delivery timelines by end of October.

If you are looking at other bike brands, please expect material changes to your delivery times over the coming weeks (if you were expecting end of the year delivery and beyond etc).

 

[RunForTheHills]

Interesting. It looks like the root cause is a coal shortage.

 

[Acme]

I sure hope they don’t build more coal fired power plants. That will create bigger problems for everyone. I hope the Chinese go all in on renewables.

 

[JakEmAll]

I sure hope they don’t build more coal fired power plants. That will create bigger problems for everyone. I hope the Chinese go all in on renewables.

LOL... China has a pass on all that because they're still classed as a "developing country". It costs money to change, they won't do it unless they're forced. That's the real reason that we have a political divide on joining the Paris accord. Taking care of the environment vs giving our country one more obstacle in competing against China with trade and manufacturing (Deliberately phrased not to take a side or start a political discussion of the merits of either side).

 

[billmeek]

There's been a Chinese ban on importing Australian coal that's biting them in the butt:

https://lloydslist.maritimeintelligence.informa.com/LL1138362/Can-China-do-without-coal-imports-from-Australia

India just cut a deal with Australia to buy all the already-mined coal, including some already-delivered where the ships have been tied up in Chinese harbors for weeks, that China boycotted.

India snaps up cheap Australian coal sitting at Chinese ports

Indian firms have bought nearly 2 million tons of coal stuck in warehouses amid a diplomatic row between Australia and China, sources said.

www.scmp.com

A further deal is in the works for India to buy up all that same coal in the future so as to keep China out in the cold and unable to secure a supply.

Things in China could get a lot worse. That will affect global supplies and prices.

 

[JakEmAll]

There's been a Chinese ban on importing Australian coal that's biting them in the butt:

https://lloydslist.maritimeintelligence.informa.com/LL1138362/Can-China-do-without-coal-imports-from-Australia

India just cut a deal with Australia to buy all the already-mined coal, including some already-delivered where the ships have been tied up in Chinese harbors for weeks, that China boycotted.

India snaps up cheap Australian coal sitting at Chinese ports

Indian firms have bought nearly 2 million tons of coal stuck in warehouses amid a diplomatic row between Australia and China, sources said.

www.scmp.com

A further deal is in the works for India to buy up all that same coal in the future so as to keep China out in the cold and unable to secure a supply.

Things in China could get a lot worse. That will affect global supplies and prices.

Might give some time for alternative sources to spring up. Always a good thing.

 

[Mike_V]

Only Xi Jin Ping affects production, don't kid yourself.
Production curtailed, production people kept poor and controlled it's all planned, including shortages of trendy electric bicycles.

 

[scrambler]

production people kept poor

I think you are confusing with the US

 

[Mike_V]

I think you are confusing with the US

No Confucious scrambled,
Jin Ping controls worldwide production.
"The shortage in silicon metal, sparked by a production cut in China, has sent prices up 300% in less than two months."

 

[rich c]

Only Xi Jin Ping affects production, don't kid yourself.
Production curtailed, production people kept poor and controlled it's all planned, including shortages of trendy electric bicycles.

Could you show any facts to support your comment?

 

[mschwett]

I sure hope they don’t build more coal fired power plants. That will create bigger problems for everyone. I hope the Chinese go all in on renewables.

they are going all in on renewables... and are doing pretty well at it. but that's a very, very big ship to steer.

 

[Ebiker33]

I saw a picture today of thousands of ships sitting outside the coastal waters of North America that are trying get into ports; combined with this news makes you think.
Has the time for North America to regain it's independence in manufacturing it's own products in Canada, America and Mexico, to stop this madness.
Yes we are saving money, but if you can't get goods for a year then what is the point. Especially with food.
Start making Ebikes in Mexico to at least save some labor costs.
What is happening right now is showing the weakness of overseas product supply to North America just isn't working anymore.
Any politician of these three countries that advocates made on this continent to cut down supply chain issues is talking realistically now.
We really need to ween ourselves away from the China supply chain formula...........for good.

 

[billmeek]

I saw a picture today of thousands of ships sitting outside the coastal waters of North America

Don't trust Facebook for your news:

Fact check: Dozens of ships waiting off California coast amid backup at ports

Ships have lined up off the coast of Southern California as they wait to deliver cargo. But there are not more than 1,000 of them.

www.usatoday.com

If you want to see for yourself, go to:

MarineTraffic: Global Ship Tracking Intelligence | AIS Marine Traffic

MarineTraffic Live Ships Map. Discover information and vessel positions for vessels around the world. Search the MarineTraffic ships database of more than 550000 active and decommissioned vessels. Search for popular ships globally. Find locations of ports and ships using the near Real Time ships...

www.marinetraffic.com

Hint: use the filters to only view 'Ship Type' of "Cargo ship" and 'Current Status' to "Anchored". Even then you'll see a lot of those ships are at port.

 

[Acme]

I prefer to call it “Lie to your Face-book”

 

[rich c]

I saw a picture today of thousands of ships sitting outside the coastal waters of North America that are trying get into ports; combined with this news makes you think.
Has the time for North America to regain it's independence in manufacturing it's own products in Canada, America and Mexico, to stop this madness.
Yes we are saving money, but if you can't get goods for a year then what is the point. Especially with food.
Start making Ebikes in Mexico to at least save some labor costs.
What is happening right now is showing the weakness of overseas product supply to North America just isn't working anymore.
Any politician of these three countries that advocates made on this continent to cut down supply chain issues is talking realistically now.
We really need to ween ourselves away from the China supply chain formula...........for good.

Thousands? I don't think they even got close to 100 at the Port of Los Angeles. I also believe you are confusing manufacturing issues with pandemic initiated issues. Politicians are definitely the ones to straighten this out! HAHAHAHAHA! Realistic politicians? That's even funnier.

 

[Mulezen]

A hundred ships waiting is a bad traffic jam. The trucking capabilities are way off…the ‘just in time‘ model no longer works especially considering the dispersal of essential goods. Taiwan produces many critical microprocessors, they also have stringent Covid rules like we should’ve before leading the world in death. Imagine Taiwan bombed by China. Other examples are out there. Say the US slow-moving coup encourages Mitch to not increase the debt in December. Then you have a world wide recession…there’s a real chance of this. Fragile times…and not a bit interesting

 

[billmeek]

As of Oct 5th, there were 63 cargo ships at anchor waiting to unload at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. The highest number ever was on September 19th when 97 ships were at anchor needing to dock. These numbers are from the Marine Exchange of Southern California.

 

[Fast n' Furious]

China wants Taiwan. Russia wants Ukraine. Iran wants the bomb.
Any one jumps, they all might. The Western Powers ( USA/ GB/ AUS) are aligning for a showdown. India's cool w/ Russia, but not China.
Now we'll see tariffs and artifices, forcing buying trends to favor like alliance cultures.
Iran could be the trigger. If they are forcefully stopped, it will send a loud message. If not, big trade changes are coming - permanently.

 

[Cuz Vinny]

Dear Kamen ? Segway gyro inventor has house in China.

Who cares???

 

[Fast n' Furious]

Who cares???

Well, it figures someone would invent a sandwich spin-off after getting suckered into buying that company, but Gyros are believed to have originated in Greece. (They're similar to the döner kebabs of Turkey and shawarma of the Middle East, which are slices of meat, rather than a minced loaf.) But they were never mass produced in Europe, according to the gyro magnates ...
Pretty much dried out, severely overcooked Mutton sandwiches (AKA: 'Baaa Burgers' or 'Lamb Leather n' pita pockets').
'Coronel Mao Mao Chicken'. Now that's the real deal.
-
Finding a new application for a device is not inventing, or 'Gee mum, I cant patent using a paperclip to pick my teeth, or maybe a fence post to hang notices on?'
First gyroscope was in 1812 (by German physicist Johann Bohnenberger), but the invention of the gyroscope is usually attributed to the French physicist Jean-Bernard-Leon Foucault in 1852, but such devices had been produced for at least the preceding three centuries.
Gimbal systems similar to those found in gyroscopes were used on ships to level oil lamps from at least the sixteenth century and the ideas behind armillary spheres date back at least a millennium before that.
In 1912 a Gyroscopic Car was running. A large spinning mass provided the gyroscopic forces to keep the two-wheeled car upright. It never took off but, nearly 100 years later the two-wheeled Segway Human Transporter is a derivative of this conceptual mode of transport.
-
The Segway PT was developed from the self-balancing iBOT wheelchair which was initially developed at (British) University of Plymouth, in conjunction with (British) BAE Systems and (Japan) Sumitomo Precision Products .
Segway's first patent was filed in 1994 and granted in 1997, followed by others, including one submitted in June 1999 and granted in October 2001 - pre-Chinese involvement or ownership of Segway.
Jimi Heselden, the 62-year-old British multi-millionaire who scooped up Segway in December 2009, died in September 2010 (after he drove one of the company's 'vehicles' off a 40' cliff and into a river). In April 2015, a Beijing-based transportation robotics startup (and Segway rival) acquired Segway.
-
Solid state gyroscopes (Silicon).
In 1985 BAS' Vibrating Structure Gyroscope (VSG), the first solid-state 'Coriolis' gyroscope was developed by the company. This new technology paved the way for the present day 3rd, 4th and 5th generation MEMS gyroscopes produced by the company - what the Segway uses. However, in the early 80's, solid-state rate sensors had already begun to infiltrate markets previously controlled by the mechanical sensor.
Fundamentals of operation for each type of sensor are discussed in this paper (circa Feb. 1983) https://www.sae.org/publications/technical-papers/content/830727/. Theoretical and practical operating features of each type and typical specifications for present-day sensors are presented, along with an application for which solid state gyros are ideally suited.
Factually, BAS developed Segway's solid state gyroscopes.
-
Possibly, the PRC press release, re: 'Segway Gyro inventor has a house in China' is actually a translation problem.
It's: "Lamb flavored Subway Sandwich Imitator has a Food-Stand in China".