D
Deleted member 4210
Guest
The tariffs sound really awful, especially to ebike dealers and those who import, and of course the consumer.
However, these sorts of things need to be put in the proper perspective. So here is a shot at that, which may be counter to the prevailing negativity:
1) Exchange rate - the USD/RMB rate is at 6.86. This is not an exact 'science' but roughly that is going to translate in terms of labor costs at a minimum, to a factor of being 6 times more costly to build an ebike in the US, than in China. The Chinese truly 'get this', but American consumers who are used to very low prices on nearly everything as compared to world counterparts, truly do not have this perspective, or at least act like they don't care. Sure they can be price sensitive, but if they really had to buy things while living in another country, and did so for any length of time, they'd probably not be as ticked off about a measley 25%, which the large majority of ebike manufacturers have yet to actually pass on. Thus far anyway.
2) Product Sourcing - in the whole scheme of things, its not exactly been healthy for the entire bike industry to be so deeply dependent on one country for most of its labor, and certainly a lot of the parts. The decline in regular bike sales, has led to nearly half of LBD's (or IBD's - choose your fav acronym) since the year 2000. So yes, prices have gone up in a lot of categories, and many new categories have prices for regular bikes that are that of ebikes and higher, but those specialty categories and the smallish volume, do not make up for the decline in interest or ridership. Prices for all bikes, would be immensely higher if the dollar was not so strong, against many other currencies.
The point is, if Ebike OEM's are now motivated to source from other countries, that competition is healthy, and reducing China's current 'market power', or even some large brands who have leveraged themselves into 'market power' in China, and translated that to niche dominance here, the tariffs could actually be beneficial to a lot of smaller players, or the entreprenuerial set, who has been attracted to ebikes, and giving them a real shot. Certainly from this perspective, those large corporates seeking market power, and significant market share, are not necessarily pleased by these tariff's. They may be silent in public, but you know Trump is getting an earful behind the scenes, if not a lot worse.
3) Potential Benefit to the Consumer of EBikes - if more small businesses can participate, and more sourcing opportunities evolve from the (likely short term) pain of tariff's, it is very possible we will see a LOT more continued innovation in e-bikes, and in fact, in electric vehicles in general. EV's are not going away anytime soon, and e-bikes are really a 'niche' of the EV industry, much more so than people will admit, versus a niche of the bike industry. I personally don't see e-bikes a 'niche' of the industry, but rather its own segment. Proof of this is the reluctance of regular bike shops to embrace the technology, or willingness to make the rather heavy capital investment required. Other evidence of this, is by far most of the ebike buyers I have seen, have not ridden a bike in the past 20 to 30 years, or certainly are not even regular bike riders. Their bikes (if they have them) are hanging in the garage rafters collecting dust. (quite painful for the regular bike industry for service and parts). E-bike prices may seem high, but they actually offer a price point, and real value to the consumer, that goes well beyond what can be accomplished on a regular bike. How this spurs innovation, is that many entrepreneurs, and potential 'builders' or producers or distributors, can have enough money to work with from a single purchase that make a business model viable, that just wasn't the case with high volume, low price regular bikes sold at big boxes, or nearly every type of retail outlet in existence.
I suspect we will see MANY new ebike designs, and designs that will morph into vehicles we dont traditionally think of as 'bikes'. Beyond two wheels, many designs that are enclosed, weather proof, more rugged for various tasks, deliveries, cargo and so on. Traditional motor cycles are changing this way, and Harley Davidsons foray recently into ebikes, and many of the auto manufacturers having a model or two, is a signal they are thinking beyond bikes - they are thinking electric powered transport of all shapes, types, and configurations.
While initially there is a lot of fear, brought by the uncertainty of these tariffs, but you can apply the ebike example of tariffs 'being painful' to many other industries who feel the same, but haven't thought it through to a conclusion that just maybe some much needed change is being sparked by tariff's as a catalyst for that change. the trade imbalances are more of a reflection of some not so healthy world wide economic structures, rather than just a 'worry' about growing deficits. Its NOT ABOUT the money, and as many are want to accuse Trump of 'terrible things', there just could be some silver linings in all of this, that are not near term apparent.
In any event, there are many great deals out there, in the very short term, and plenty of ebike models at excellent prices, so fears of prices going up drastically or immediately, haven't exactly played out that way since August 23rd. I'm always skeptical of 'fear mongerers' anyway. Its the old 'sky is falling' attitude.
However, these sorts of things need to be put in the proper perspective. So here is a shot at that, which may be counter to the prevailing negativity:
1) Exchange rate - the USD/RMB rate is at 6.86. This is not an exact 'science' but roughly that is going to translate in terms of labor costs at a minimum, to a factor of being 6 times more costly to build an ebike in the US, than in China. The Chinese truly 'get this', but American consumers who are used to very low prices on nearly everything as compared to world counterparts, truly do not have this perspective, or at least act like they don't care. Sure they can be price sensitive, but if they really had to buy things while living in another country, and did so for any length of time, they'd probably not be as ticked off about a measley 25%, which the large majority of ebike manufacturers have yet to actually pass on. Thus far anyway.
2) Product Sourcing - in the whole scheme of things, its not exactly been healthy for the entire bike industry to be so deeply dependent on one country for most of its labor, and certainly a lot of the parts. The decline in regular bike sales, has led to nearly half of LBD's (or IBD's - choose your fav acronym) since the year 2000. So yes, prices have gone up in a lot of categories, and many new categories have prices for regular bikes that are that of ebikes and higher, but those specialty categories and the smallish volume, do not make up for the decline in interest or ridership. Prices for all bikes, would be immensely higher if the dollar was not so strong, against many other currencies.
The point is, if Ebike OEM's are now motivated to source from other countries, that competition is healthy, and reducing China's current 'market power', or even some large brands who have leveraged themselves into 'market power' in China, and translated that to niche dominance here, the tariffs could actually be beneficial to a lot of smaller players, or the entreprenuerial set, who has been attracted to ebikes, and giving them a real shot. Certainly from this perspective, those large corporates seeking market power, and significant market share, are not necessarily pleased by these tariff's. They may be silent in public, but you know Trump is getting an earful behind the scenes, if not a lot worse.
3) Potential Benefit to the Consumer of EBikes - if more small businesses can participate, and more sourcing opportunities evolve from the (likely short term) pain of tariff's, it is very possible we will see a LOT more continued innovation in e-bikes, and in fact, in electric vehicles in general. EV's are not going away anytime soon, and e-bikes are really a 'niche' of the EV industry, much more so than people will admit, versus a niche of the bike industry. I personally don't see e-bikes a 'niche' of the industry, but rather its own segment. Proof of this is the reluctance of regular bike shops to embrace the technology, or willingness to make the rather heavy capital investment required. Other evidence of this, is by far most of the ebike buyers I have seen, have not ridden a bike in the past 20 to 30 years, or certainly are not even regular bike riders. Their bikes (if they have them) are hanging in the garage rafters collecting dust. (quite painful for the regular bike industry for service and parts). E-bike prices may seem high, but they actually offer a price point, and real value to the consumer, that goes well beyond what can be accomplished on a regular bike. How this spurs innovation, is that many entrepreneurs, and potential 'builders' or producers or distributors, can have enough money to work with from a single purchase that make a business model viable, that just wasn't the case with high volume, low price regular bikes sold at big boxes, or nearly every type of retail outlet in existence.
I suspect we will see MANY new ebike designs, and designs that will morph into vehicles we dont traditionally think of as 'bikes'. Beyond two wheels, many designs that are enclosed, weather proof, more rugged for various tasks, deliveries, cargo and so on. Traditional motor cycles are changing this way, and Harley Davidsons foray recently into ebikes, and many of the auto manufacturers having a model or two, is a signal they are thinking beyond bikes - they are thinking electric powered transport of all shapes, types, and configurations.
While initially there is a lot of fear, brought by the uncertainty of these tariffs, but you can apply the ebike example of tariffs 'being painful' to many other industries who feel the same, but haven't thought it through to a conclusion that just maybe some much needed change is being sparked by tariff's as a catalyst for that change. the trade imbalances are more of a reflection of some not so healthy world wide economic structures, rather than just a 'worry' about growing deficits. Its NOT ABOUT the money, and as many are want to accuse Trump of 'terrible things', there just could be some silver linings in all of this, that are not near term apparent.
In any event, there are many great deals out there, in the very short term, and plenty of ebike models at excellent prices, so fears of prices going up drastically or immediately, haven't exactly played out that way since August 23rd. I'm always skeptical of 'fear mongerers' anyway. Its the old 'sky is falling' attitude.
