The transition

[kevinmccune]

Whether because of ecological disasters of our own making, or civilization collapse from infinite stupidity greed and selfishness, we are hopefully headed for extinction, and a better specie can emerge in a few million years

this is a natural evolution of a land ruled by oligarchs and Pluto crafts,remember the end result of capitalism?"the most wealth in the fewest hands,greed hath no bounds"

 

[kevinmccune]

Probably not extinction, just a reduction in population commandant with the reduction in food production and a much simpler lifestyle for most. I'd assume it will end up basically as it was 150 years ago, steam from wood is a viable form of transport and farming by hand power and animal power. Lots of recycling old steel etc too, owning a landfill will be quite profitable.

yep mining landfills will probably become a thing.

 

[scrambler]

Probably not extinction, just a reduction in population commandant with the reduction in food production and a much simpler lifestyle for most. I'd assume it will end up basically as it was 150 years ago, steam from wood is a viable form of transport and farming by hand power and animal power. Lots of recycling old steel etc too, owning a landfill will be quite profitable.

Well some of what is going on has potential exponential scenarios, and once on an exponential phenomenon, extinction is very possible.
The planet already went through 2 of them and they only involved natural disasters ...

 

[kevinmccune]

Well some of what is going on has potential exponential scenarios, and once on an exponential phenomenon, extinction is very possible.
The planet already went through 2 of them and they only involved natural disasters ...

not to worry we will help it out,if I was Zelensky I wouldn't hang around Keiv!

 

[Chargeride]

But its mostly good news, poverty has dropped off a cliff, food production is soaring, death by natural disasters is down 90%, world biomass is thriving from increased co2, climate change is thankfully sitting right along the lowest predictions.

None of that stops humans being human though and even given nirvana we can duck it up.
Our present civilisations will fade away by low birth extinction and the future has never been so uncertain for even the point of us as we disect every atom of our existence and find no holy grail to bedrock our place in reality.
The ages of man or something ..maybe

 

[kevinmccune]

But its mostly good news, poverty has dropped off a cliff, food production is soaring, death by natural disasters is down 90%, world biomass is thriving from increased co2, climate change is thankfully sitting right along the lowest predictions.

None of that stops humans being human though and even given nirvana we can duck it up.
Our present civilisations will fade away by low birth extinction and the future has never been so uncertain for even the point of us as we disect every atom of our existence and find no holy grail to bedrock our place in reality.
The ages of man or something ..maybe

don't worry we were down to 7000 humans one time and look at us now,the whites may go extinct,it seems the darker skinned races have no trouble reproducing,in other words barring total disaster there will always be humans around! that increased CO2 does seem to be helping the foliage,now if we could just get some rain.

 

[Roamers]

if we could just get some rain.

With the news reports over the last month, and your comment, I looked at the Drought Map. I was surprised to see deficiencies east of the Kansas/Nebraska.

It has been a long time since we were great with water here; our gardens are more lush than we can remember.

 

[LandoftheGiants]

Food is often the trigger for dieoff, for societal collapse, and unlike past civilizations, 80% of the food reaching most of our tables comes directly from the application of fossil fuels. Fertilizers, Pesticides, herbicides, farm machinery, truck transport, refrigeration.
You can see it in the population chart below, plain as day. Look at the upslope after 1800

The first full-scale working railway steam locomotive was invented by British engineer Richard Trevithick in 1803. It made its historic first successful run on February 21, 1804,

The mass transit of food into the cities began then, as well as the distribution of better farm machinery no doubt. Modern horse drawn plows etc.

The upslope in population steepened through 1900 and got greater due to Diesel powered farm equipment and trucking no doubt. Also the natural fertilizer trade gave way to the more efficient Haber-Bosch process of synthetic ammonia production invented in 1909.
The big inflection around the 1960's was what they called "The Green Revolution" The mass application of Nitrogen fertilizers made from Natural gas, and pesticides and herbicides made from Oil. None of us here will notice the food shortages brought on by the recent blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, when Nat Gas supplies were halted for a couple of months. But poorer nations that can't bid as high as us for the available food will. We'll just see it as higher prices at the supermarket and some will be forced to skip healthy meals for cornflakes like in that tragic ad campaign kelloggs ran.

Now when I said dieoff and societal collapse at the start I'm not suggesting that everyone dies! Far from it. When the Roman Empire collapsed, when the Mayan and Olmec and all the rest went, it was just the cities that suffered, those that could migrate into the rural areas and those already living there continued on, just without the "civilization" part. The mass migration to cities, as we have seen over the past 100 years, reverses and populations go back to a more sustainable model. I don't like the idea of that, I like things the way they are now. But what I like is irrelevant to the obvious outcome of FF depletion. Why did those other civilizations get into trouble when they didn't even use FF? Over irrigation typically, it draws salts up and destroys the soils. That and extended droughts and climate shifts. Food is very fragile.

The famine following the 1816 "Year Without a Summer" was the worst subsistence crisis of the 19th century. Triggered by the 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora in Indonesia, falling temperatures and relentless rain destroyed crops worldwide. Mass starvation, riots, and the spread of deadly diseases devastated Europe, North America, and Asia

 

[Chargeride]

Im amused that scientists are warning again that the western ice shelf could collapse this year as its breaking up, this would allow the doomsday glacier to slowly slide into the sea.
As usual its could, maybe and possible outcomes...
But usually this would be top news across the world and its crickets unless you go looking for it.

The ‘doomsday’ glacier’s giant ice shelf is about to break away

The floating ice shelf of world’s widest glacier – Thwaites glacier in Antarctica – is detaching, with worrying implications for global sea-level rise

www.newscientist.com

I will admit to a certain level of fatigue to this expolation of possibilities to neatly fitting a message with nudges of doom when in reality if it was remotely a real possibility that was ever going to be fixed, then we need to start clearing the coasts now, and the fact that the political eye has moved to terrawatts for a power race makes me conclude if they dont care nor do I.

 

[scrambler]

Heavy sight ....

 

[mschwett]

fertilizers do require (at least for now!) fossil fuel inputs but they are a tiny tiny fraction of global consumption. something like a percent or two. they consume a fairly large ratio of petrochemical consumption but when you compare them to the amounts used for transportation in general and energy ….. a drop in the bucket, literally.

the lowest hanging fruit for decarbonification are fixed, building uses through greening the grid, then light vehicles, then heavy vehicles, and so on. things like fertilizer (and all other petrochemical uses) are a rounding error.

 

[LandoftheGiants]

Well they are driving lots of ships around the arctic sea now so that's one thing. Gone are the days of a solid ice pack. Pesky thing that was.
Arctic shipping for ordinary, open-water vessels became technically possible after 2004, when decreasing summer sea ice allowed full navigability without icebreakers during Summer and Autumn.

Between 2013 and 2025, the ship type that saw the greatest increase in the Arctic was crude oil tankers, which saw a 396% increase over the 12 years. The second greatest increase was bulk carriers with 156% more in 2025 than in 2013. Cruise ships have also increased significantly, with 123% more cruise ships in 2025 than in 2013.

Why is Arctic shipping increasing?​

Changes to the marine environment, such as a decrease in the extent of sea ice and the loss of older, thick ice, have significant implications for longer navigation seasons and new access to previously difficult to reach regions of the Arctic.

Arctic Shipping Update: 40% Increase in Ships in the Arctic

New data sheds light on 12 years of Arctic shipping trends

arctic-council.org

 

[kevinmccune]

Im amused that scientists are warning again that the western ice shelf could collapse this year as its breaking up, this would allow the doomsday glacier to slowly slide into the sea.
As usual its could, maybe and possible outcomes...
But usually this would be top news across the world and its crickets unless you go looking for it.

The ‘doomsday’ glacier’s giant ice shelf is about to break away

The floating ice shelf of world’s widest glacier – Thwaites glacier in Antarctica – is detaching, with worrying implications for global sea-level rise

www.newscientist.com

I will admit to a certain level of fatigue to this expolation of possibilities to neatly fitting a message with nudges of doom when in reality if it was remotely not own a real possibility that was ever going to be fixed, then we need to start clearing the coasts now, and the fact that the political eye has moved to terrawatts for a power race makes me conclude if they dont care nor do I.

well the "Feds" may have to start allowing homesteading again,with restrictions on how much land a corporation or individual can"hoard".I have seen this with my own eyes there are "land hogs" everywhere-always starting with"get off MY land"!( the Native Americans were right-one cannot own the common birthright of all peoples,its not like an automobile or made thing in around 3 score and 10 years most ambitions fade away into the twilight,let us not allow the "feudal" system to rear its ugly head again,needing another "black plague" to reset things. I like my couple of acres.however I do understand that I am a temporary tenet on the surface of this spaceship called Earth!(which we are rapidly destroying the biosphere of the only planet humans can live on without artificial aids-Hey Elon.why don't we "terraform" Earth" Giving up the teenage wet dream of a "Green Mars" or cloud city on Venus,given our increasing understanding of planetary dynamics maybe "L5" isn't so wild a speculation after all,the burgeoning human population is slowly strangling earth,I know sounds socialist as hell OTH have a think and open your eyes(ever been without food for a month?)

 

[kevinmccune]

Well they are driving lots of ships around the arctic sea now so that's one thing. Gone are the days of a solid ice pack. Pesky thing that was.
Arctic shipping for ordinary, open-water vessels became technically possible after 2004, when decreasing summer sea ice allowed full navigability without icebreakers during Summer and Autumn.

Between 2013 and 2025, the ship type that saw the greatest increase in the Arctic was crude oil tankers, which saw a 396% increase over the 12 years. The second greatest increase was bulk carriers with 156% more in 2025 than in 2013. Cruise ships have also increased significantly, with 123% more cruise ships in 2025 than in 2013.

Why is Arctic shipping increasing?​

Changes to the marine environment, such as a decrease in the extent of sea ice and the loss of older, thick ice, have significant implications for longer navigation seasons and new access to previously difficult to reach regions of the Arctic.

Arctic Shipping Update: 40% Increase in Ships in the Arctic

New data sheds light on 12 years of Arctic shipping trends

arctic-council.org

the only maybe good thing to happen from our climate meddling!

 

[kevinmccune]

stop of CO@ emission I realized a long time agofertilizers do require (at least for now!) fossil fuel inputs but they are a tiny tiny fraction of global consumption. something like a percent or two. they consume a fairly large ratio of petrochemical consumption but when you compare them to the amounts used for transportation in general and energy ….. a drop in the bucket, literally.

the lowest hanging fruit for decarbonification are fixed, building uses through greening the grid, then light vehicles, then heavy vehicles, and so on. things like fertilizer (and all other petrochemical uses) are a rounding error.

concrete has fairly high ratio of CO2 emissions I realized a long time ago that the thermal decomposition of Limestone( basically Calcium carbonate) would release large amounts of CO2,its a pretty hefty price to pay for our burgeoning amounts of the temporary building material we call modern concrete.

 

[Chargeride]

I follow this guy, hes no nonsense, straight to the point, running total off grid with solar, battery, electric everything.

 

[mschwett]

concrete has fairly high ratio of CO2 emissions I realized a long time ago that the thermal decomposition of Limestone( basically Calcium carbonate) would release large amounts of CO2,its a pretty hefty price to pay for our burgeoning amounts of the temporary building material we call modern concrete.

a lot of progress has been made on this front, we do lots of projects with low carbon concrete - about half the embodied carbon of typical cement…

 

[Chargeride]

My post in ride pictures includrs our local carbon capture pipeline from a cement factory

 

[LandoftheGiants]

Total offgrid systems are Great! If you have $50,000 to pay for them and another equivalent inflation adjusted amount in 20 years time. 10 years for the battery no doubt. It's like Dental implant bridges, they cost $50,000 too and are a hell of a lot better than old loose dentures, better than natural teeth I recon, but you need $50k upfront. Of course it's all just the leveraging of energy, Oil, from beginning to end. Here is a great article that explains where we are and how we got here. It discusses faith in progress too, the de facto established religion of our societies.

Peak Oil: Specter and Substance

It’s been a long time now since peak oil dropped off the radar screens of public consciousness. Mention it these days and the reaction you’ll get from the few people who remember it at all amounts …

ecosophia.net

There is a lot of chatter on forums about 'amazing' energy tech but many can't even afford a quality car or bicycle. It reminds me of the poor people who watch the foodie shows on TV and put what meager disposable income they have into ingredients for nice meals. It's a form of denial really, an ego boost so they don't feel as poor as they really are. It would be smarter to shepherd what resources they have for the future and eat simpler more basic meals. No thought of tomorrow though, not a good strategy seeing that the western world is getting poorer in aggregate and inflation is rampant.

I'm singularly unimpressed by most of the modern tech myself, I have seen too many broken promises. Solar thermal plants that were supposed to provide cheap electricity, sodium batteries that were supposed to be much more efficient than Lipos. Yet here we are 1/4 of a century after the introduction of the lipo battery and still with nothing ground-breaking to replace it. Just tweaks and more promises from companies who often vanish into obscurity after the product fails to deliver. They are cashing in on Hopium, the desire people have to see a better world. If you want a better world for yourself you have to make it, it won't come delivered on a plate like it did last century. There is nothing wrong with Lipo tech, it's really quite amazing compared to NiMH or NiCad stuff from 2005 and before. And if something genuinely better comes along and proves itself I'll transition over, But we have to remember that new battery tech usually means all new appliances too. Hardly any of the old NiMH devices were compatible with Lipo when it took over.

 

[kevinmccune]

I follow this guy, hes no nonsense, straight to the point, running total off grid with solar, battery, electric everything.

the local co-op has put solar on some of our schools,one system exceeds the power requirements of said school when in operation.( they have also built some field solar systems)